Volga, South Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

980
FXUS63 KFSD 120313
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1013 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very warm, very dry, and breezy conditions are expected
  through Wednesday. The warmest and windiest days will be
  today through Tuesday, when highs in the upper 80s to lower
  90s may approach record levels in some areas.

- A Red Flag Warning continues until 10 pm this evening for
  southeast South Dakota, southwest Minnesota, parts of
  northwest Iowa, and far northeast Nebraska due to strong
  south-southwest wind, low relative humidity, and dry fuels.
  Fire danger may vary greatly over short distances as it will
  depend on greenness of local grasses.

- A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for Monday for
  southeast South Dakota, southwest Minnesota and far northwest
  Iowa due to a continuation of the very dry conditions. Fire
  danger may vary greatly over short distances as it will depend
  on greenness of local grasses.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances increase late Wednesday
  afternoon and evening with the passage of a cold front.

- The latter half of next week will bring relief from the heat
  with decreasing rain chances into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025

11.20Z analysis shows widespread south-southwest wind gusts from
30 to 40 mph with a few sites across central SD reporting gusts
to around 45 mph. Concurrently, relative humidity has dropped
below 25 percent region-wide as temperatures have soared into
mid 80s to lower 90s. After expanding the Red Flag Warning for a
few counties earlier this afternoon, headlines are in good
shape. Will allow warning to continue until 10 pm this evening.

Although skies will be clear overnight, continued southerly
breezes will keep temperatures elevated with lows in the mid 50s
to lower 60s. Some RH recovery is expected with most areas
expected to rise above 50 percent.

Monday will essentially be a carbon-copy of today. Little change
in the air mass with ensemble systems showing 850 hPa temperatures
at the 90th plus percentile of climatology combined with 925
hPa temperatures from 24 to 28 Celsius will allow afternoon
highs to once again climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Winds may be a bit lower, but with 20 to 30 kts in a well mixed
boundary layer, expect another breezy day with gusts 25 to 35
mph, and up to 40 mph mainly west of the James River. Given
current ongoing headlines and for simplicity, will keep Fire
Weather Watch in place for Monday, with later shifts needing to
resolve when and where to potentially upgrade to another Red
Flag Warning.

One more near critical to critical fire weather day on Tuesday
with little change in temperatures or low-level moisture.
Southerly wind gusts do not appear quite as strong east of I-29,
so something to monitor. For now, will hold off on any
additional headlines.

Very warm temperatures remain steady through Wednesday,
although there are signs that surface dewpoints will rise into
the 50s, which should help keep humidity from bottoming out
below 20-25 percent. However, this will also result in a more
muggy feeling to the air and potential fuel (instability) for
showers and thunderstorms later in the day. A strong 500 hPa
closed low lifts east-northeastward in southwest flow aloft
Wednesday evening into Thursday morning with a cold front at the
surface. 12Z GFS/NAM showing anywhere from 1500 to 2500 J/kg of
MUCAPE along a narrow band ahead of the front, although the
strongest shear is displaced farther west across the western
Dakotas. This displacement should limit the overall severe
potential, but there is still a 60-80 percent chance for showers
and thunderstorms. Ensemble systems are showing a 60-100
percent chance for much of the area to see at least a tenth of
an inch in accumulation through 12Z Thursday.

Thursday into next weekend will be noticeably cooler with daily
highs back to near mid-May normals. Some wrap around showers/
storms are possible Thursday into Friday, but current trends
suggest a return to dry conditions by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1011 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025

VFR through the period. The main concerns continue to center
around gusty southerly winds. Gusts of 20 to 30 mph remain
likely through the night. Monday will once again see gusts of 30
to 40 mph develop during the morning and continue through about
sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025

A Red Flag Warning is now in effect for much of the area from
Noon to 9 pm Monday. Strong southerly winds and very dry
conditions continue.

Very warm, dry, and breezy conditions will continue Tuesday
with an expected gradual increase in low-level moisture by
Wednesday. This may be enough to keep afternoon RH values from
tanking below 25 percent.

The next best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be
Wednesday evening into Thursday morning, followed by much cooler
(near normal) temperatures to end the week.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Monday for SDZ038>040-
     050-052>071.
MN...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Monday for MNZ071-072-
     080-081-089-090-097-098.
IA...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Monday for IAZ001-002-
     012.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rogers
AVIATION...08
FIRE WEATHER...Rogers