Sturgis, South Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
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NWS Forecast for Sturgis SD
National Weather Service Forecast for:
Sturgis SD
Issued by: National Weather Service Rapid City, SD |
Updated: 4:49 am MDT Jul 15, 2025 |
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Overnight
 Slight Chance T-storms
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Tuesday
 Slight Chance T-storms then Showers Likely
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Tuesday Night
 Showers and Patchy Fog
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Wednesday
 Showers and Areas Fog
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Wednesday Night
 Chance Showers
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Thursday
 Decreasing Clouds and Breezy
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Thursday Night
 Slight Chance T-storms and Breezy
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Friday
 Sunny
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Friday Night
 Slight Chance T-storms then Chance Showers
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Lo 67 °F |
Hi 68 °F |
Lo 52 °F |
Hi 56 °F |
Lo 50 °F |
Hi 74 °F |
Lo 59 °F |
Hi 80 °F |
Lo 60 °F |
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Hazardous Weather Outlook
Overnight
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A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a steady temperature around 67. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph. |
Tuesday
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 4pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 4pm and 5pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 68. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. |
Tuesday Night
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Showers and thunderstorms before 4am, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly after 4am. Patchy fog after 11pm. Low around 52. East wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. |
Wednesday
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Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Areas of fog before 10am. High near 56. Northeast wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. |
Wednesday Night
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A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. Southeast wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. |
Thursday
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Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 74. Breezy, with a southeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. |
Thursday Night
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A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 59. Breezy, with a southeast wind 10 to 20 mph becoming west after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. |
Friday
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Sunny, with a high near 80. West wind around 10 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. |
Friday Night
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 60. |
Saturday
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A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 80. |
Saturday Night
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 63. |
Sunday
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A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. |
Sunday Night
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A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly clear, with a low around 63. |
Monday
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Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS
for Sturgis SD.
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Weather Forecast Discussion
879
FXUS63 KUNR 150849
AFDUNR
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
249 AM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Slight risk (2 out of 5) of severe thunderstorms this
afternoon/early evening over small parts of south-central SD/
northeastern WY
- Beneficial rainfall potential through Wednesday
- Unsettled and warmer for the end of the week into early next
week
&&
.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Monday)
Issued at 242 AM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025
08z surface analysis had cold front along the ND/SD to WY/MT
border areas with outflow boundary racing to the SD/NE courtesy of
decaying convection over the northwest half of the CWA. Water
vapour loop had a couple of disturbances over the northern
Plains, but main trough slipping across the US/Canadian border in
the vicinity of ID/western MT. The cold front and upper trough
will be the main weather makes in the short term.
Today/tonight, cold front hangs up over south-central SD today as
upper trough drops into MT. SPC HREF depicts 1-2KJ/kg MUCAPE over
the southern half of the CWA in the afternoon, peaking at
2-3KJ/kg over south-central SD. 25-35kt 0-6km bulk shear
sufficient for severe thunderstorms. Wild card is post frontal low
clouds which may blanket the northern half of the CWA by midday.
If low clouds push further south, surface based convection chances
decrease markedly. Most CAMs indicate convective initiation over
south-central SD by early afternoon and then over the southern
Black Hills/northeastern WY later this afternoon. Main threats
large hail/damaging wind. Strongest convection wanes later this
evening as cold front pushes well south of the CWA. Temperatures
tricky, but feel northern half of CWA has highest probability
(50-80%) chance of low clouds, so have cut MaxTs to account. Left
the south along.
Wednesday, upper trough slips across the northern plains with
synoptic forcing/limited buoyancy combining to produce high PoPs
in a regime characterized by PWATs ~125% of normal. Beneficial QPF
likely (SPC HREF 50-80% >0.75" western half of CWA) for parts of
the CWA with convective elements focusing highest totals.
Temperatures will be quite cool for mid- July, some 15-25F below
normal.
Thursday through Monday, zonal flow propels a series of weak
disturbances across the US/Canadian border as thermal ridge slowly
expands into the northern Plains. Disturbed weather will continue
as temperatures recover to seasonal readings.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued At 1055 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025
Showers and thunderstorms will continue overnight across
northeast WY and western SD, then moving into central SD in the
late morning. A cold front will cross the forecast area through
the day on Tuesday, bringing widespread MVFR/IFR CIGS. More storms
will develop late Tuesday into Tuesday evening.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Helgeson
AVIATION...13
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