Mobridge, South Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

480
FXUS63 KABR 190758
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
258 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain, with the odd weak thunderstorm expands in coverage today.
Rain continues into Tuesday, and wanes on Wednesday. Probabilities
for rainfall in excess of 2 inches ranges from about 50 to 70
percent.

- Below normal temperatures, by 15-25 degrees, continue through
Wednesday before we see a warming trend toward normal (upper 60s to
mid 70s) for the weekend that lasts into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025

Temperatures are in the 40s to near 50 degrees, with precipitation in
central and north central South Dakota, in the form of weak showers.
Coverage of random lighting strikes has dropped off from earlier
this evening. As the morning progresses, CAMS have latched onto an
axis of steady rain just south of Sioux Falls pivoting northwards
into eastern and northeastern South Dakota from mid-morning through
the mid-day hours.  Over central/north central South Dakota, more of
the same coverage of generally showers or broad pockets of rain.
Later in the day, some additional heavier showers will develop with
a pocket of elevated instability lifting into eastern South Dakota,
though NAM BUFKIT profiles support only elevated instability/skinny
CAPE, with a deep, stable/cool boundary layer. Then were back to
generic shower activity with pockets of rain in the evening and
we`ll pretty much be dealing with that through the night into
Tuesday as well as the upper level system pivot overhead. One little
additional tidbit of interest is that NAM BUFKIT profiles for
Watertown also show cooling enough to allow for some snow to mix in
Tuesday. Near surface temperatures and humidity are fairly high
however, so any flakes mixed in would have to be in the higher
elevations and of course no chance for accumulations with temps in
the mid 40s.

As for temperatures, early morning readings are our highs. With
cool/humid and stable conditions at the surface tonight into
Tuesday, don`t expect the thermometer to move much either.

Lastly, with a low turned inverted trough pivoting across South
Dakota, a tight gradient will result in enhanced easterly winds.
1/2km winds are about 30-50kts, with HREF and NBM highlighting the
western edge of the Prairie Coteau and the eastern Missouri Coteau
for greater than 50% probability of exceeding 45mph. Wind advisory
has been issued to cover said areas, with some already within
advisory criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025

When the period opens Tuesday night, precipitation chances should be
diminishing, as the remaining upper level low pressure energy is
being trended in the models to be shifting up into North Dakota,
rolling into Wednesday morning. There may be some lingering shower
potential, still, for Wednesday. But, at this point, without a
source of low level forcing or mid/upper-level lift around,
Wednesday precipitation chances are probably diurnally driven.
Beyond that, upper level height rises/ridging begin to establish for
the rest of the period, potentially interrupted by shortwave trofs
(rain chances) Thursday night into Friday and then again Saturday
night/Sunday (ensemble qpf clusters analysis).

Still seeing the coldest day of the period being anchored on
Wednesday morning (all but the lowest 500-1000ft AGL below freezing
in the column in both GFS and NAM BUFKIT thermal profiles) where if
there is any lingering precipitation happening over the CWA Tuesday
night, it could be mixing with or changing over to snow for a brief
time. Ensemble and deterministic temperature guidance suggests the
rest of the period still shows a slow and steady climb, for
temperatures, up out of below normal territory by the start of the
weekend.

After passing the gridded forecast through the frost tool, late
Wednesday night/early Thursday morning is still showing up as the
only morning (while temperature`s still potentially dropping into
the 30s at night) when there could be some patchy frost potential.
Again, a lot will depend on cloud coverage rolling into early
Thursday morning for length of effective radiational cooling. But,
wind speeds still look low enough.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Radar continues to fill in over central South Dakota and upstream,
and this rain with embedded thunder will continue to expand to
cover all terminals with a mix of MVFR/IFR CIGS and MVFR VISBY.
Winds will also be on the increase topping out at 35-40kts with
over 50kts at 2kft off the surface. Improvements in CIGS/VISBY is
unlikely until near the end of the TAF period.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for SDZ004>006-009-
     010-016>018-034>037.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for SDZ007-008-011-019>021.

MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...07