Mobridge, South Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

384
FXUS63 KABR 221123 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
523 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A warming trend will continue with temperatures 10 to 25 degrees
  above normal today through the middle of next week.

- Increasing confidence for elevated fire weather concerns Monday
  west of the James River.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 522 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

See updated aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 308 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Upper level northwest flow will be dominant over the region through
the day Sunday, with a weak fast moving shortwave sliding through
the flow tonight.

At the surface, a broad low pressure trough will be over the central
part of the country, with high pressure to the southeast and over
the Rockies. Warm westerly flow will continue to aid in a nice warm
up over the region today, and even more so on Sunday. High
temperatures today will be 10 to 20 degrees above normal, then 20 to
30 degrees above normal on Sunday. Westerly winds will generally be
in the 10 to 20 mph range, and no precipitation is expected through
the day Sunday.

High temperatures today will range from the upper 30s across west
central Minnesota, to the lower 50s across south central South
Dakota. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 20s. Highs on Sunday
will range from the mid 40s across west central Minnesota, to the
lower 60s across portions of central South Dakota.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 308 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Monday features above normal temperatures and elevated fire danger.
GFS 1/2km winds will be up around 30-45kts Monday. The warm
advection push at 850mb is not as pronounced in comparison to
earlier runs, with the plumes of warmest 850mb temperatures headed
out of western SD into southeast SD so the advection term is more
neutral than anything. Mixing efficiency is still a little
uncertain, with GFS BUFKIT mixing up to 30-35kts. The probability of
exceeding 30mph is 80 percent across the west and 50 percent across
the far east, while advisory criteria is about 50 percent west river
and only 20 percent east river. Thus, will likely see winds meet Red
Flag criteria, with Wind Advisory criteria probably limited to our
favorable northwest counties ridgetops ie. Corson/Dewey.
Temperatures should top out in the 50s to low 60s with a probably of
exceeding 60 percent between 20 and 60 percent focused across
central South Dakota with numbers falling off to the north and east
with zero chance for the Sisseton hills region. The only caveat for
Red Flag is the mean NBM afternoon relative humidity is still
relatively high, with the forecast grids only down to about 30 to 40
percent...though we can probably be flexible given ambient dry pre-
greenup conditions. Precipitation chances in the warm advection wing
of the shortwave are also lowered, with only about a 20 percent
probability of exceeding 0.01.

Tuesday looks likewise mild, albeit with slightly cooler
temperatures aloft. NBM is still advertising similar probabilities
for exceeding 60 degrees. Winds aloft are weaker as well, with 1/2km
winds while increasing, only peaking at around 30kts by 00Z. The
probability of exceeding 30mph is mainly limited to west river.
Another weak wave passes within northwest flow late in the day, with
again a likewise 20 percent chance for 0.01 inches of moisture.

These low probabilities likely have more to do with minor differences
in placement of the shortwaves generated light QPF bands in the warm
advection wing, but given the timescale will stick with these lower
confidence POPs which will then probably need an increase once the
models converge on a solution.

The rest of the forecast is rather mundane with slightly above
normal temperatures and little chance for moisture. We will see a
pocket of cooler air zip across the region Thursday, however
deterministic models have a wide range in the depth/intensity of said
cold air. The NBM 25th/75th percentile range for highs is 10-15
degrees for Thursday/Friday. At the end of the 180 hour timeframe
there is a bit of a stronger clipper moving into the Western Lakes
region but will again have to wait for better model agreement before
getting into specific impact related details other than just
advertising another round of warm/dry conditions and winds.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 522 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will prevail across the area today and tonight.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...Parkin