Aberdeen, South Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

405
FXUS63 KABR 180918
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
318 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Prolonged arctic air intrusion into the region with readings 20 to
as much as 30 degrees below normal through Tuesday. The arctic air
will bring the potential for morning wind chill values of
-25F to -45F degrees below zero Saturday night through Tuesday
morning.

- Temperatures will begin to warm toward the middle of next week as
some warmer air returns to the region. A couple chances for light
snow will be possible during this time, though there should be
little to no accumulation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 316 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

The forecast is right on schedule, with the fropa earlier today much
colder arctic air has moved into the region with lingering flurries
continuing in isolated areas. Temps are in the low teens and single
digits. The coldest air remains north of the forecast area however,
and with the northerly flow to dominate the next few days this
colder air will work its way into the region even more, with
bitterly cold temps tonight and Sunday morning. The pressure
gradient supports brisk northerly winds through the period as well.
Wind chill values will be dropping into the -25F to -40F range. A
Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for Saturday night into
Sunday morning. The lack of any significant snow cover will help
keep temps from reaching full potential for colder conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 316 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

The cold temperatures continue Sunday evening into Monday morning,
with even colder temperatures and wind chills moving into central
and eastern SD early Monday morning. While a Cold Weather Advisory
has been issued for Sunday, even more dangerous wind chills will be
occurring overnight Sunday into Monday. The temperatures Monday look
to be 25 to 30 degrees colder than normal. In addition to this,
there is a high probability (40-70 percent chance) of winds gusting
to at least 30 mph west of the Missouri River and in northern SD
counties. These winds plus the colder temperatures will lead to wind
chills around -40 degrees over northern counties while central and
eastern SD will have wind chills at least -30 degrees. As we get
closer to Sunday, it will need to be decided if the northern SD
counties that could potentially reach extreme cold warning criteria
should get a warning or if a cold weather advisory should cover all
of central and eastern SD. Either way, it will be dangerously cold.
The winds die back Monday evening into Tuesday, and Tuesdays
temperatures warm to only be 10-15 degrees colder than normal. This
leads to an increase in wind chills temperatures, though they will
still be around/below -30 degrees Tuesday morning.

The upper-levels start to change Tuesday, with the models showing a
ridge building over the Pacific and shortwaves moving along the
pressure contours towards SD. The models vary the timing and
strength of these shortwaves, and other than when these shortwaves
move over SD, the upper-level flow stays from the northwest. The
upper-level shortwaves and their associated surface low pressures
could lead to precipitation occurring over central and eastern SD,
however there is disagreement in the models on the location of the
surface low and the precipitation around it. This leads to lower
confidence in the chance for precipitation Wednesday onward as well
as the location of the precipitation. The different locations of the
surface low also leads to differences in the winds Wednesday, as
some models have stronger winds over 25kts to the west of the
Missouri River and others have them to the west of the James River
Valley. Even with the variations in winds, the wind chills will get
above zero Wednesday because of mid-level WAA warming surface
temperatures to be around normal for this time of the year through
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1127 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR CIGs will continue to affect the region through the TAF
period. There`s a more solid deck of clouds over central SD
(KPIR/KMBG) which looks to stick around for at least a few more
hours, while eastern areas (KABR/KATY) are seeing more breaks in
the clouds. Some degree of SCT/BKN MVFR or low end VFR CIGs are
forecast Saturday afternoon as well. Breezy/gusty north-northwest
surface winds will persist through the period.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening to
     noon CST /11 AM MST/ Sunday for SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-
     045-048-051.

MN...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Sunday
     for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Scarlett
LONG TERM...Vernon
AVIATION...TMT