Sumter, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

057
FXUS62 KCAE 111714
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
114 PM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
as a system moves through the region. Near to below normal
temperatures expected through the weekend. An extended period of
dry conditions follows the rain today, although a rogue shower
cannot be ruled out for the eastern Midlands on Saturday
afternoon. Temperatures warm up for Monday and Tuesday before a
dry cold front ushers in another shot of cooler air for
Wednesday and Thursday. The next chance of rain arrives late
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Upper low moves through tonight.
- Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms possible
  this afternoon, mainly north of the I20/I26 corridor.

Satellite showing broad upper low centered over western NC this
afternoon. Several shortwaves are seen rotating around the
sheared trough axis of this spinning low, with some shower
activity also associated with those waves. Guidance remains
consistent with developing additional showers across the
upstate of SC, which is already starting just east of the
mountains, then bringing isolated to scattered showers and
storms into at least the northern half of the forecast area
later this afternoon and early evening. There will be some
surface based instability with the amount of sunshine as the
activity moves through, so can not rule out a few stronger
storms will small hail and gusty winds. Do not expect any
widespread severe though. Guidance indicating any rainfall will
begin to weaken and move out by sunset as a secondary cold front
begins moving through the region. This will bring drier and
colder air into the area, with lows falling into the mid 40s for
most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Below normal temperatures for the weekend.

- Low end (less than 15 percent) chance of a passing shower or
  two Saturday afternoon in the Eastern Midlands.

Upper trough will be overhead at daybreak on Saturday
sluggishly moving eastward while the upper low moves northeast.
This leaves the FA in a northwesterly flow as a cold, dry air
mass continues to filter in. Latest hi-res guidance shows
isolated shower development in the afternoon but the majority of
it lies to our northeast closer to the departing upper low. The
overall threat of any location seeing a shower on Saturday is
low, less than 15 percent. Temperatures will continue to be
below seasonal values with forecast highs in the 60s and lows in
the upper 30s to lower 40s. Upper ridging and surface high
pressure will be in control of our weather on Sunday. This will
promote sunny skies, lighter winds, and warmer temperatures than
on Saturday, albeit still near to below normal for mid-April.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- An extended period of dry conditions expected.

- Above normal temperatures expected early next week.

- Next chance of rain expected late next week.

Upper ridging at the start of the extended flattens in response
to a digging trough that passes to our north Tuesday into
Tuesday night before being replaced by a strong ridge for
Wednesday and Thursday. At the surface, high pressure will be to
our southeast on Monday promoting southwesterly flow in addition
to warmer, and likely above normal, temperatures. Tuesday is
warm and breezy ahead of a likely dry cold front. High pressure
and a reinforcing shot of cool, dry air move in behind the
boundary for Wednesday and Thursday. The next chance of rain is
expected during the tail end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions expected.

UPper low will be tracking north of the area through tonight.
Some mid-level stratus development possible this evening and
overnight associated with this low. As another secondary cold
front associated with the upper low moves towards the area,
some isolated to scattered showers or storms will become
possible over the Midlands locations of cae/cub as activity
moves out of the SC piedmont later this afternoon. Remaining
sites should remain dry. This cold front pushes through early
tonight, bringing drier conditions. May still see some mid-level
stratus until later tonight or early Saturday across the
Midlands sites, with clearer skies across the Savannah River
sites. Winds out of the west to northwest through tonight, with
gusts up to 20 knots possible through this afternoon. Gusts
diminish after sunset, but sustained winds between 5-10 knots
out of the north to northwest will remain into Saturday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Drier air returns to the region for
the weekend into next week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$