Spartanburg, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

198
FXUS62 KGSP 211436
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1036 AM EDT Wed May 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and dry high pressure will be in control of our weather for the
second half of the week.  A warm front moves north from the Gulf on
Sunday bringing a return of showers and thunderstorms in the first
half of next week.  A stationary front moves south of our area in
mid week with drier weather returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1020 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Drier conditions and breezy winds expected behind a cold
front today

2) Warm with above normal highs again this afternoon

A remnant low cloud deck was slowly mixing out across the Upstate of
SC and western Piedmont of NC late this morning, and that trend is
expected to continue into midday. Temp trends need some adjusting in
places that currently have more cloud cover than initially expected.

Otherwise, the actual frontal boundary will not push east of the
area until early this afternoon. Dewpoints will gradually lower
as drier air works its way into the region behind the front,
allowing for a less humid day. Despite the frontal passage, highs
will end up ~5 degrees above normal thanks to mostly sunny skies
and NW downslope flow offsetting cold air advection behind the
front. Breezy winds are expected with gusts ranging from 20-30 mph
for most locations. However, elevations above 3,500 feet can expect
gusts ranging from 35-40 mph. Gusts will gradually diminish east
of the mountains this evening but will remain elevated over the
mountains tonight. Lows tonight will end up ~7-10 degrees cooler
compared to this morning`s lows, but will still end up slightly
above normal despite mostly clear skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

1) Slight chance for showers and gusty winds in the mountains on
Thursday

2) Temperatures begin to cool down Thursday

As of 140 AM EDT Wednesday: Mostly dry and quiet for the short term.
Guidance from the GFS/EURO puts a strong upper low over the Great
Lakes with a broad trough dipping southward. By Thursday, a tight
gradient at the 850mb level could bring some gusty winds across the
area, especially the mountains. At this time, the higher elevations
have about a 30-50% chance of exceeding 45 mph, with other locations
in the mountains being less than 20%. Confidence remains medium that
winds will remain below criteria for any product issuance at this
time. There is a slight chance for a very brief shower as the trough
scoops down and a swath of DPVA crosses the mountains on Thursday.
Current guidance chances keep showers in the (20-40%) along the
TN/NC border. This continues through Thursday night before becoming
dry throughout the rest of the period. Additionally, the drier,
cooler air brings temperatures closer to normal by Thursday and
begins a cooling trend into Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages

1) A drier air mass keeps temperatures below normal into Memorial
Day Weekend

2) Shower and thunderstorm chances are possible Sunday into Monday

As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday: Saturday starts off the extended quiet
with a more unsettled pattern emerging through the holiday weekend.
Long range guidance essentially sets up a ridge out west and allows
for NW upper flow that becomes more zonal by Sunday. Embedded in the
upper flow appear to have multiple shortwaves, bringing pockets of
DPVA sliding toward the area. Some guidance still hint at possible
shower chances, especially across the mountains, Sunday and into
Monday. The QPF response isn`t much at this time as there is still
too much uncertainty. However, the pattern becomes more unsettled.
Temperatures for the extended look near normal with a slow, gradual
warming through the beginning of the week. There is also a signal in
the guidance hinting at even warmer, above normal temps toward the
end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Dry conditions have returned across the
terminals this morning and will continue through the 12Z TAF period.
LIFR/IFR/MVFR cigs and IFR to MVFR vsbys are in place across many of
the terminals this morning. KAND and KCLT remain VFR but could still
see fog and lowering cigs develop through daybreak. Restrictions
should lift by mid-morning as wind speeds gradually increase.
Breezy winds will develop this morning, lingering through this
evening east of the mountains. Breezy winds will stick around at
KAVL through the end of the TAF period. Gusts will range from ~18-26
kts. Winds will gradually turn W/WNW early this morning, remaining
at this direction through the rest of the TAF period.

Outlook: Slightly stronger wind gusts return Thursday across the
terminals with only low-end gusts expected on Friday. VFR and mostly
dry through the first half of the weekend. Shower and thunderstorms
chances return late this weekend into early next week. Mountain
valley fog and low stratus are possible each morning.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR/PM
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...AR