Port Royal, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

478
FXUS62 KCHS 070522
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
122 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An active weather pattern continues as multiple frontal
boundaries and disturbances impact the region. A few storms may
be severe this weekend, with damaging winds expected to be the
primary hazard. A brief reprieve in heat then returns early
next week in the wake of a strong cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Early this morning: Radar imagery shows dissipating upstream
convection with nothing going on across southeast GA and
southeast SC. This should continue through the rest of the night
with no forcing available for nocturnal convection. Overall, it
looks like an uneventful night with warm temperatures and no
significant fog concerns. Current temperatures are in the upper
70s in most areas, and will be slow to fall through sunrise. Low
to mid 70s are expected for lows, running a few degrees above
normal for early June.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Saturday: As a shortwave moves eastward across the Midwest, an
MCS will likely develop across the Southern Plains and begin to
approach the Southeast. Across the Lowcountry, very humid
conditions are expected as afternoon highs climb into the low
90s and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. This will allow for
heat indices to rise into the upper 90s to lower 100s, the
warmest along and east of I-95. This is not uncommon for the
Lowcountry, however its a good reminder to stay well hydrated
and take breaks indoors as needed.

This aforementioned MCS will move coincidentally with the
shortwave into the Southeastern CONUS in the afternoon hours.
Given the overall environmental conditions this system is moving
into, severe thunderstorms are possible. Latest soundings
Saturday afternoon have been displaying CAPE values well over
2000 J/kg, DCAPE values ~1000 J/kg, and 0-6 km bulk shear values
~30 kt. In addition to this, strong diabatic heating will
result steep low-level lapse rates. The main threat would be
from damaging wind gusts, with hail a lesser concern. The latest
guidance shows the MCS potentially reaching our forecast area
around 8pm Saturday, however confidence in the timing is quite
low since it might not even make it this far southeast.

If this system does end up holding together, convection could
linger till shortly after midnight. Overnight lows will be mild
and only dip into the low to mid 70s, with upper 70s along the
beaches.

Sunday: The forecast on Sunday is conditional on how Saturday
pans out. If we only see scattered convection on Saturday, the
airmass would be primed for more robust convection on Sunday. On
the other hand, if a residual MCS moves through the area
Saturday, the airmass would probably be pretty worked-over.
Another potent shortwave is expected to move through Sunday and
the environment could be fairly conducive to damaging winds if
storms organize. Otherwise, expect another hot and humid day
with heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s again.
Overnight lows will be in the low/mid 70s.

Monday: Expect an upper-lvl trough situated over the Great
Lakes region to deepen throughout the day, while an associated
cold front approaches the region and then stalls nearby. Showers
and thunderstorms could develop in the afternoon along the sea
breeze as conditions remain favorable for development.
Temperatures will be a bit cooler than the last couple days with
highs reaching into the upper 80s and heat indices remaining
below 100. However, overnight lows remain mild.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The upper-lvl trough situated over the Great Lakes region
should become more amplified across the Eastern CONUS on Tuesday
and then taper off afterwards. The aforementioned cold front
extending from this upper-lvl trough situated over the Great
Lakes region could pass through sometime mid-week. This typical
diurnal summertime pattern of scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing along the seabreeze in the afternoon
will continue. Expect temperatures to be somewhat cooler through
the period in the wake of the cold front passing through.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions should prevail for most of the 06z TAF period at
KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV. Winds will be westerly for much of the
day, with frequent gusts into the 17-20 knot range expected.
While there could be an isolated shower or thunderstorm nearby
in the afternoon, it appears the best chance for thunderstorms
will come during the evening hours and in the last 6 hours or so
of the 06z TAF period. Model guidance remains quite uncertain,
but there is potential for clusters of storms to move in from
the west this evening. The best chances are at KCHS and KJZI,
and we have added VCTS starting at 01z.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Typical summertime convection
pattern will bring periodic flight restrictions through early
next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Expect southwest/west winds ranging between 10-15 kt
to return across the waters overnight between low pressure
exiting further to the north-northeast and high pressure
extending across the western Atlantic. Seas will generally range
between 2-3 ft.

Saturday through Tuesday: Expect south-westerly winds to
prevail throughout the period, with speeds generally 10 to 15
kt. It could become a bit gusty on Saturday and Sunday afternoon
with gusts up to 20 to 23 kt possible with the sea breeze
pushing inland (gusts will be strongest across the Charleston
Harbor). SCAs are not needed at this time for the Harbor,
however this will be continued to be monitored. This south-
easterly swell will begin to taper off and seas will range from
2 to 3 ft, with some 4 footers in the outer Georgia waters.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 7:
KCHS: 75/2021
KCXM: 79/2021

June 8:
KCHS: 76/1980
KCXM: 78/2021
KSAV: 79/1881

June 9:
KCHS: 77/1978
KSAV: 77/1877

June 11:
KCHS: 76/2020
KSAV: 76/2010

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...Dennis
LONG TERM...Dennis
AVIATION...BSH/Dennis
MARINE...Dennis/DPB