North Myrtle, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

744
FXUS62 KILM 121925
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
325 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The weather will remain quite unsettled as a slow moving upper
low lifts from the Gulf States into the Ohio Valley through
Wednesday. Very warm and largely rain-free weather is slated for
the remainder of the week. Small rain chances return this
weekend ahead of a weak cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Deep, moist southerly flow east of the stacked mid-upper low
pressure system over the Gulf states maintains widespread showers
and isolated thunderstorms through this evening and into overnight
hours via decent isentropic lift. PWATs are near 2" across coastal
NE SC per latest SPC mesoanalysis, and are expected to remain near
the climatological 90th percentile through dawn Tuesday. Another
0.75-1.25" of rain is forecasted through early Tuesday morning, with
isolated higher amounts possible. Clouds, rain, and wind will keep
low temps warm tonight in the upper 60s.

The stacked low over the Gulf states will start slowly lifting north
tonight, moving further north into the Ohio Vally Tuesday while
opening up. Mid- and upper-level dry air will move in from west to
east Tuesday morning through midday, which will reduce rain coverage
for Tuesday. Cooler and slightly drier air aloft will lead to
increased instability for Tuesday afternoon, and scattered
thunderstorms are expected, aided by PVA around lifting upper low to
the WNW. Deep layer shear remains slightly elevated due to proximity
of upper low, and isolated strong wind gusts will be possible. High
temps Tuesday will be in the low 80s across NE SC and upper 70s SE
NC where clouds may linger a bit longer earlier in the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The current Gulf upper low will have moved into the OH valley by the
start of the period. This shoves the deepest moisture well of the
area but one last healthy shortwave is progged to rotate through the
area on Wednesday, keeping POPs elevated (near categorical in some
places) even as the threat for heavy rain will be over. Daytime
highs close to normal whereas cloud cover will keep lows about a
category above climo.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A considerable change heading into Thursday as any lingering
troughiness and PVA will be off the coast and ridging will be able
to build in from the west. Thunderstorm coverage should taper to
isolated at most and the afternoon will warm into the upper 80s away
from the beaches. Ridging peaks Friday and and low 90s expected away
from the water. A cutoff drops out of Canada and into the NE U.S.
over the weekend for a frontal passage that looks to occur Sunday.
Models don`t seem overly enthusiastic about rain chances with the
front. Given the lack of good moisture flux ahead of its arrival
minimal POPs appear warranted.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A mix of showers with isolated lightning ongoing. In rain
VIS/CIGs are getting worse MVFR, but the embedded showers are
proving tricky with brief IFR due to heavier rainfall rates.
Activity should increase at KCRE/KMYR soon as a band of rain is
moving up from the south, while KLBT/KFLO are dealing with the
showers from the inland frontal push. KILM is in a bit of a lull
right now with lighter RA and some clearing but a stray shower
still can`t be ruled out. Things should largely fill in tonight
with predominant MVFR and lowering CIGs, IFR to LIFR possible.
Winds and rain should keep fog away, but have VIS staying