North Augusta, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

952
FXUS62 KCAE 251512 AAA
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1112 AM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A nearly stationary front will lift north of the area as a warm
front later today, followed by the passage of a cold front from
the west on Saturday. Drier and somewhat cooler air will spread
over the area behind the front late in the weekend, with
continued dry conditions and warming temperatures then expected
through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Message(s):

- Warmer than normal temperatures will persist.
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms should hold off until late
  afternoon/early evening.

Widespread fog/stratus continues to improve across the forecast
area with satellite imagery showing the transition from stratus
to a diurnally induced cumulus field with some enhancement along
the sea breeze at the coast. The diffuse front over the area is
expected to shift north by this afternoon in response to
increasing southerly flow ahead of an approaching upper trough
and cold front.

A warm moist flow is expected today with a mix of sun and clouds
with the cumulus field expected due to abundant low level
moisture in place. Despite increasing instability through the
afternoon, the lack of upper forcing and low level boundary for
forcing do not expect much in the way of convection through the
afternoon. Hi-res guidance supports this as well with little
convection showing up other than maybe isolated showers/storms
along the sea breeze which may impact the eastern Midlands. The
more significant forcing associated with the upper trough
remains to the west and therefore only carrying slight chance
pops this afternoon. Temperatures should rise through the 70s
early this afternoon and max out in the lower to possibly mid
80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- A cold front moves through the FA Saturday, bringing more
  chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly toward
  the Pee Dee and region and into the northern Midlands.

- Drier air moves in behind Saturday`s front for Sunday.

- Temperatures above normal expected Saturday and near normal
Sunday.

Tonight: A short wave trough will pass across the area tonight, and
guidance is in good agreement showing scattered showers with a
few embedded thunderstorms affecting the area. Given the
nocturnal timing of the convection, instability appears to be
minimal and do not anticipate any strong/severe thunderstorms.
Extensive cloud cover and continued influx of warm/moist air
within a southerly surface flow will result in another mild
night with lows in the lower to mid 60s.

Saturday and Saturday Night: Saturday could start with an
isolated lingering shower or weak thunderstorm into the Pee Dee
region and eastern Midlands as an upper trough begins to swing
into the northern FA after 12z or so but the main story will be
the cold front that is expected to pass through during the 20-0z
window. Initially southerly winds should allow temperatures to
rise into the mid 80s during the afternoon with surface dew
points in the mid to upper 60s. With solid low level moisture
content, high-res model guidance and high-res ensembles depict
between 1000-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE developing and increasing 20-25
kt 0-6km shear vectors that have more of a perpendicular
component to the incoming front. This should allow scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop ahead of the front where
the greatest coverage continues to be expected in the Pee Dee
region and into the northern and eastern Midlands due to
lingering upper support from the trough. The main limiting
factor in greater coverage is winds in the 800-700 mb layer
will be more west-northwesterly as the trough passes, ushering
in drier air in the mid levels that is being shown in most CAM
forecast soundings. With this said, CAMs are in fairly good
agreement that scattered convective development is most likely
in the aforementioned regions. With some of this dry air aloft
noted and an inverted V mixed layer profile, strong
evaporatively driven downdrafts will be possible as shown with
modest to high DCAPE values and thus an isolated strong to
marginally severe storm will be possible, bringing the main
hazards of strong wind gusts and possible small hail, though the
overall severe risk is on the lower end.

This activity wraps up as the front clears the FA by the
evening, shifting winds out of the west and eventually northwest
with gradually clearing skies that should allow decent
radiational cooling and cooler lows that fall into the mid to
upper 50s across the north and in the upper 50s to low 60s
south.


Sunday and Sunday Night: Behind Saturday`s front, high pressure
begins to slide in with northwest flow aloft continuing as
ridging begins to build in the central CONUS. PWAT`s drop near
normal to just below normal and northeasterly low level winds
keep afternoon temperatures in check with highs in the mid to
upper 70s expected in the northern FA and into the upper 70s to
near 80 in the southern FA. A shortwave embedded in this
northwest flow is expected to pass just south of the CWA during
the afternoon and evening but a mainly dry forecast is expected
as most medium and long rage model guidance show the bulk of any
rain showers staying to the south with the low chance of a
stray shower or two scraping the southern CSRA. Sunday night
then sees a good radiational cooling night coupled with
continuing northeast low level flow and thus the coolest night
we have seen in the past week is expected with overnight lows in
the upper 40s to low 50s in the northern Midlands and the Pee
Dee region and in the mid 50s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- High pressure and calmer weather moves in for the early and
  midweek.

- Temperatures initially start near normal before rising back
  above normal the rest of the period.

High pressure and strong ridging aloft build in through the
midweek, likely bringing drier conditions with NAFES PWAT`s
near average through much of the period. Monday looks be similar
to Sunday as northeast winds continue much of the day before
shifting more easterly to southeasterly, keeping temperatures
near average. As we move into the midweek southeasterly to
southerly low level flow begins to bring temperatures back above
average Tuesday and Wednesday where a run toward the low 90s
will be possible Wednesday, which is shown well with EFI values
for max temperatures Wednesday reaching between 0.7-0.8 across
the FA.

Ensembles indicate ridging may become more suppressed late
Wednesday through Thursday as a mid level trough digs into the
Great Lakes region with southerly flow Thursday starting to
bring NAFES PWAT back over 1" as a frontal boundary nears the FA
from the northwest. This could bring back increasing rain
chances toward Thursday but confidence is not high in this at
this time. Besides this, the EFI signal for max temperatures
Thursday is again near 0.70 and another run toward the low 90s
may be possible but with muggier conditions due to increasing
moisture.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Widespread fog/stratus continues to diminish and transition to
an MVFR cumulus field and should return to VFR conditions by
17-18z. Isolated convection possible this afternoon but lack of
forcing with the frontal boundary shifting north of the
terminals yields too low confidence to include at the forecast
at this time. An approaching upper trough and cold front should
bring the chance for some evening and overnight convection in
the form of scattered showers and possible thunderstorms. There
is a potential for some low stratus and/or fog to develop
toward the end of the forecast period, with MVFR or lower
conditions possible. Winds will be southerly less than 10 kt
through the forecast period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions will generally
prevail, although some flight restrictions are possible with
showers and thunderstorms accompanying the passage of a cold
front on Saturday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$