Conway, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

301
FXUS62 KILM 040615
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
115 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Arctic high pressure will bring the coldest temperatures
tonight since last winter. Temperatures will warm tomorrow into
Thursday before another cold front drops temperatures well
below normal again Thursday night. High pressure will move
across the area this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
No significant changes were needed to the very cold forecast
with this early evening update. If there`s one comfort to be
had it`s that wind speeds won`t significantly affect the
apparent temperature as high pressure and calm winds approach
from the west tonight.

We`re still forecasting a record low temperature tonight in
Florence and only 1-2 degrees from records elsewhere.

Location      Forecast  Last Time This Cold    Coldest Last Winter
Wilmington       22         20 on Jan 22          19 on Jan 21
Lumberton        19         18 on Jan 21          18 on Jan 21
Florence         20         18 on Jan 22          16 on Jan 21
N. Myrtle Beach  24         21 on Jan 22          20 on Jan 21

Calm winds and clear skies accentuate microclimates from soil
type differences across the area. For locations on peat/pocosin
soils, lows could conceivably dip to 10 degrees tonight. Closely
watch obs from the RAWS station in Holly Shelter Gameland and
the Green Swamp, plus mesonet stations in Atkinson, Currie, and
Maple Hill.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Although the core of coldest air aloft will be moving offshore
through this afternoon, the presence of very dry air from
today`s mixing in tandem with the arrival of surface high
pressure overhead tonight will set the stage for remarkably
good radiational cooling, with record lows in danger of being
broken at most of our climate sites (see CLIMATE section below
for details). Lows should fall into the teens to low 20s away
from the immediate coast, with some of our normally colder spots
falling into the low teens. After a frigid sunrise, temps will
quickly recover into the mid-upper 40s by midday. High temps
should eclipse 50F during the early afternoon amidst rapidly
rising 850mb temps and growing 1000-500mb thicknesses, although
a robust subsidence inversion will act to limit how high
temperatures can reach. With high pressure moving offshore
during the morning, southwesterly low-level flow will take over
and commence a brief but noticeable warming trend ahead of the
next cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Very changeable conditions will punctuate the short term period
as strong warm air advection will be underway initially. This
will lead to high temperatures in the lower 60s Thursday which
will seem very warm based on the past few days but are actually
near normal. By late Thursday into Friday yet another arctic
front will move across leading to more well below normal
temperatures. Highs Friday will drop back to the lower to
perhaps middle 40s with lower to near 20 degrees Saturday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Expect somewhat of a broad but methodical pattern change for
the late weekend through early next week period. The deep and
persistent cyclonic flow will fill and or move off to the
northeast as a broad southwest flow develops. A good part of
the ensemble guidance as well as deterministic suites have
slowed down the embedded shortwaves thus pops have been walked
back slightly. Regarding temperatures...expect another morning
of sub freezing temperatures Sunday with both lows and highs
warming to the lower 50s and middle 60s to near 70 respectively
after this.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR thru the 24 hr forecast period. Center of sfc high pressure
to migrate overhead early this morning, and south of the area
today. SKC all sites with canopy of cirrus likely to begin
overspreading the area tonight. Looking at basically calm winds
to start, becoming SW 5 to 10 kt by this aftn as the center of
the high drops further south of the region. Sfc pg tightens
tonight with SW winds further increasing to 10-15 kt with
occasional gusts up to 20 kt possible.

Extended Outlook...VFR to dominate. LLWS may develop later
tonight across all terminals as a strong southwesterly low
level jet develops across the eastern Carolinas.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Wednesday...
Surface high pressure will shift to the coast
by late tonight and move offshore tomorrow morning. North-
northwesterly flow will gradually weaken through tonight as
the high approaches the coast and become light and variable
tomorrow morning as it passes over the waters. Southwesterly
flow picks up during the afternoon and continues to increase
through the remainder of the day as the gradient begins to
tighten ahead of the next cold front. Seas will be primarily
driven by NNWrly wind waves and decrease from 2-4 ft this
evening to 1-2 ft by midday tomorrow. As southwesterly winds
increase late in the period, seas will respond by increasing
into Wednesday night.

Wednesday Night through Sunday...
Strong southwest winds will develop and or be in place
overnight Wednesday into the day Thursday with a brief
period of warm advection ahead of yet another arctic front
later Thursday into early Friday. Small craft advisories are
likely during this time and somewhat worked over water
temperatures with warm advection seemingly precludes gales.
Beyond this after a couple of days of northwest winds with cold
air advection a broad based return/southwest flow develops.
Significant seas will be highest early on with the stronger
winds 5-7 feet...dropping to 1-3 feet by the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record lows for the morning of December 4...
Wilmington, NC (KILM): 21F (1876)
N. Myrtle Beach, SC (KCRE): 22F (1989)
Florence, SC (KFLO): 20F (1989)
Lumberton, NC (KLBT): 18F (1979)

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...TRA
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...SHK/ABW
CLIMATE...ABW