Columbia, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

511
FXUS62 KCAE 151757
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
157 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak upper ridging will continue to break down through the mid
week, leading to lower daytime temperatures and higher rain
chances each day. Upper ridging then returns for the late week
and thus weekend, bringing warming temperatures and more typical
shower/storm chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Isolated to scattered storms into this evening

Low pressure along the east coast of Florida continues to
retrograde to the west, along with a weak inverted upper trough
extending northward from the low.

Convection will mainly be focused along the quickly advancing
sea breeze and in the higher terrain of the Upstate due to
upslope flow. The seabreeze convection should enter the eastern
Midlands and lower CSRA, and some of the Upstate convection
could propagate into other parts of our forecast area into this
evening. However, coverage may be somewhat suppressed as a weak
band of subsidence resides over the area and the GOES
precipitable water product shows an axis of lower PWATs shifting
westward into the area ahead of the seabreeze. These isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms should be fairly
progressive and even though some locally heavy rainfall is
possible do not anticipate much of a flash flood threat. A few
pulse strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are also
possible, with primarily a wind and lightning threat. Heights
are a little lower today so highs should only reach into the
lower to mid 90s.

Convection will diminish by late evening, with mainly high
cloudiness lingering into the overnight hours. Winds could
remain coupled out of the southeast through much of the night.
Low level moisture could result in some patches of late night
stratus. Low temperatures should be seasonable in the lower to
mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

_ Scattered afternoon thunderstorms forecast each day.

Weak troughing will persist at the surface across the Midlands of SC
through the next couple days as low pressure meanders across Florida
and into the Gulf. Aloft, ridging will hold strong over the
southeastern states, building in from the east. A tropical-like
airmass will remain in place, resulting in PWAT values pushing 2.0
inches at times. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will
be possible each afternoon, aided from the weak troughing at the
surface. Frequent lightning, gusty winds, and heavy rainfall will be
the main hazards. The overall severe threat remains low, with ML
CAPE values only around 1000 J/kg and no mentionable shear. Storm
motions look to be more progressive than previous days, lowering the
flooding threat with any thunderstorms. However, a strong to
marginally severe storm or locally heavy rainfall cannot be ruled
out where boundary collisions occur. Each evening will feature
diminishing rain chances and overnight lows in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key message(s):


- Warming temperatures into the weekend.

- Typical summertime pattern will continue with afternoon showers
and thunderstorms

Upper ridging will prevail aloft over the southeastern states, as
supported by ensemble guidance. Additionally high pressure will
build in at the surface. The building high pressure will yield
warming temperatures, with high temperatures Friday and through the
weekend reaching into the upper 90s. Heat index values are forecast
to reach to around 100-105 through the weekend. Lacking any large
scale forcing, a typical summertime pattern of isolated to scattered
afternoon showers and thunderstorms is forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail at all
terminals through 18Z Wednesday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected into this
evening, and have maintained a PROB30 group through 00Z at the
terminals. Some brief gusty/erratic winds and visibility
restrictions are possible in the stronger storms. Southeasterly
winds will increase closer to 7-11 kt later this afternoon, and
guidance shows them weakening a bit later than normal, likely
becoming light late this evening. Models once again show some
indications of stratus/fog toward daybreak. However guidance has
been too aggressive the past few mornings so prefer to maintain
a persistence forecast and keep mention of any flight
restrictions out of the forecast until confidence increases.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Typical seasonal restrictions
possible in the extended with daily convection and patchy early
morning fog/stratus possible.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...CPM (CHS)
LONG TERM...CPM (CHS)
AVIATION...JAQ