Columbia, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

036
FXUS62 KCAE 211858 CCA
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Columbia SC
258 PM EDT Wed May 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front has moved east of the area, with above normal
temperatures and gusty winds expected the rest of today with
even gustier winds likely Thursday. Dry weather and cooler
temperatures then expected into the weekend. We return to a more
seasonable pattern for Sunday with temperatures rising back to
near or above normal and a chance of rain each day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Breezy conditions into this evening.
- Near normal overnight low temperatures.

Afternoon water vapor imagery shows a nearly zonal flow aloft, with
plenty of dry air in the mid levels of the atmosphere. At the
surface, another weak surface boundary is poised to enter western
portions of the forecast area, but other than a slight wind shift
and surge of winds at 850mb, its passage will be unremarkable.

While dry overall, forecast soundings do show limited moisture in
the low levels of the atmosphere, which has resulted in a few fair-
weather cumulus clouds across the area this afternoon. These should
quickly dissipate with the loss of diurnal heating. HREF does
suggest some thin high clouds mainly over eastern parts of the
forecast area tonight, but for the most part skies should be clear.

Winds have increased fairly significantly, with some gusts upwards
of 25-30 mph observed already, due to deep mixing. While these gusts
should come down this evening, the surge of winds aloft at 850mb
should keep the atmosphere well coupled through most of the night.
Despite poor mixing profiles over area lakes due to the relatively
cooler lake water temperatures, decided to issue a Lake Wind
Advisory for the breezy conditions expected along the lake shores.
This will expire at 7 pm this evening.

As for temperatures, highs will likely reach the upper 80s to lower
90s across the area this afternoon. Tonight`s low temperature
forecast will be highly dependent on the winds. Clear skies should
allow for decent cooling, but offset but the coupled winds. However,
winds do appear to go light for several hours near daybreak and this
should allow them to fall near seasonable levels in the upper
50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Gusty winds expected Thursday 30-40 mph.

- An isolated shower possible early Friday as a weak disturbance
  moves through.

As a broad trough occludes and digs over the NE Conus, a
reinforcing shot of northwesterly flow will punch into the
region for Thursday, enhancing surface gusts and cold, dry
advection for the area. With deep mixing up through roughly
700mb, the strong flow aloft should efficiently mix down and
gusts to 30-35 mph are expected with a few spots pushing 40 mph. A
Lake Wind Advisory will be needed and if guidance trends much
higher with the 500-700mb top of the mixed layer winds, a Wind
Advisory could warranted as gusts could near 45 mph. Temps will
finally fall as the cold advection strengthens so highs should
only top up in the low 80`s despite clear skies.

For Friday, northwest flow will again continue but some of the
global guidance does show a weak vort max pivoting through the
primary trough axis. Low levels are quite dry, so precip chances
are quite low despite this but an odd shower cannot be ruled out
Friday morning. Behind this quick shortwave, northwesterly dry
flow will continue again and the rest of Friday will remain
breezy.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Flow becomes more zonal so seasonable temps and moisture
  returns.

By Saturday, the broad trough to our north will break and shift
east, causing generally rising heights and more zonal flow for
our area. The breakdown of northwesterly flow aloft will allow
moisture to return to the area Saturday onward, along with
steadily warming temps. Moisture and forcing remains limited
enough on Saturday to mitigate most precip chances for our area
but by Sunday an approaching low and front will increase PWAT`s
to support some elevated rain-storm chances. While not a very
anomalous pattern by any means, NAEFS and EC EFI highlight the
period over the weekend and into next week well, showing
increasing heights, moisture, and QPF during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

A few cumulus clouds will prevail this afternoon, but quickly
dissipate this evening with the loss of daytime heating, with
mainly clear skies overnight. Gusty westerly winds are occurring
at all terminals this afternoon due to deep mixing, with gusts
upwards of 27 kt. Gusts should come down a bit during the
evening and early overnight hours, but still expect breezy
conditions to persist, with winds becoming lighter toward
daybreak. Winds will quickly increase with stronger gusts
developing by mid-morning Thursday. Dry conditions and coupled
winds should prevent any fog from developing tonight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions are likely outside of
mainly diurnal convection and typical vsby issues at AGS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for SCZ016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ040-
     063>065-077.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAQ/MG
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...MG
LONG TERM...MG
AVIATION...JAQ