Columbia, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

482
FXUS62 KCAE 070129
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
829 PM EST Thu Mar 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build eastward and over the region tonight
into Friday. Dry conditions are expected to continue through
early Saturday. The next potential for rain arrives Saturday
night into early Monday followed by another period of dry
weather and a warming trend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Key Message(s):

- Winds continue to diminish this evening.
- Seasonably chilly across the Midlands and CSRA tonight.

Winds across the region have continued to gradually diminish
this evening. Expect winds to become nearly calm after midnight
through sunrise as high pressure builds eastward over the area.
This will set up ideal radiational cooling conditions that may
be slightly affected by some increasing thin high level clouds
overnight. Still expect a good bit of cooling overnight with
temperatures falling into the middle 30s for most locations,
except the lower 30s across the northern Midlands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Dry conditions continue with fire concerns lingering into the
  start of the weekend.

- Near normal temperatures Friday with temperatures around 10
  degrees above normal expected Saturday.

- Rain chances increase Saturday night as the next storm system
  approaches.

The upper pattern during the short term will be dominated by
ridging across the Southeastern United States. Meanwhile at the
surface, high pressure will be overhead on Friday, passing
offshore Saturday in response to the next storm system which is
expected to develop over Texas this weekend and approach the FA
Saturday night. Friday is expected to be a dry day but with
lighter winds due to high pressure being in place. Having said
that, a few stronger wind gusts of 15 to 20 mph are possible in
the afternoon when higher winds aloft may mix down to the
surface. Southwesterly winds at the surface should allow
temperatures to warm to near normal values on Friday. Moisture
gradually increases Friday night into Saturday, but it looks
like the FA should remain dry until Saturday night. Saturday
will be warmer and breezier with increasing cloudiness. Forecast
highs should be around 10 degrees above normal despite the
clouds.

Fire weather concerns will persist into Saturday. While winds on
Friday should be lighter, RH values will be lower. Meanwhile,
Saturday should have stronger winds but higher relative
humidity.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Sunday looks cooler and wet with a low risk of thunder across
  the southern Midlands and CSRA.

- Dry weather returns for start of the work week with warming
  temperatures.

- Next chance of rain arrives late next week.

Model guidance has come into better agreement regarding the
progression of the weekend storm system. Rain will likely be
ongoing at the start of the extended as an area of low pressure
approaches from the west. This system is expected to pass south
of the CWA on Sunday with improving weather on Monday. The
greatest probability of significant rainfall remains across the
southern Midlands and CSRA, where a slight chance of thunder
has been maintained from the previous forecast package. Latest
guidance shows a low, 10 to 20 percent chance, of CAPE greater
than 100 J/kg across the area so a rumble or two of thunder
cannot be ruled out. Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees
cooler than on Saturday with a notable warming trend through
the remainder of the long term, as weak upper ridging sets up.
The next chance of rain arrives near the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR through the period.

Winds will continue to weaken this evening and overnight,
generally 7-10 knots from the west-northwest this evening before
becoming less than 5 knots after roughly 05z. Some upper level
clouds will move in overnight, generally above 15k feet and
these will likely linger around through the end of the period.
Winds will turn southwesterly Friday afternoon and strengthen a
bit, 8-12 knots with some gusts to near 14-18 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Moisture increases this weekend
leading to the potential for restrictions late Saturday and into
Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Despite the rainfall we saw yesterday, fire weather concerns
persist into the start of the weekend. Gusty northwest to west
winds continue through this afternoon, before subsiding into
Friday. Friday sees lighter southwesterly winds but some
downsloping flow may allow lower dewpoints and RH values during
the afternoon between 25-30 percent or so. Some gusts to 15-20
mph may be seen during the afternoon with mixing occurring.
Latest guidance for 10 hour fuel moisture also suggests fuels
will quickly dry from the rain we saw yesterday, reaching 10-15%
by Friday. Due to this, fire weather concerns look to persist.
The South Carolina Forest Commission did cancel a Burn Ban for
most of the state this evening but Georgetown and Horry Counties
remain under the notice.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...