Aiken, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

490
FXUS62 KCAE 110956
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
556 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain and thunderstorm chances continue today as the a system
moves through the region. Near to below normal temperatures
expected through the weekend. An extended period of dry
conditions follows the rain today, although a rogue shower
cannot be ruled out for the eastern Midlands. Temperatures warm
up for Monday and Tuesday before a dry cold front ushers in
another shot of cooler air for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms possible
  this afternoon, mainly north of the I20/I26 corridor.

Water vapor imagery indicates that the shortwave trough that
forced our convection last evening continues to shift eastward.
Clouds remain in place across the forecast area and are expected
to remain in place through day break. Sunshine is expected to
break through the clouds by mid morning, helping to set up our
shower/storm chances this afternoon. The mid and upper level low
are forecast to be setup over much of the southeast, keeping
mid-level lapse rates fairly steep across the area. With
temperatures rising up into the low 70s by early afternoon, some
surface based instability is forecast to develop. The departing
surface low is forecast to push a secondary front through the
area gradually, with the best convergence and forcing likely to
be along and north of I20/I26 this evening. So showers and some
thunderstorms are most likely in this area. Given the steep
lapse rates, wouldn`t be surprised to see some small hail in the
stronger storms this afternoon. The 0C isotherm is around 7kft,
with the -20C isotherm around 18 kft, further supporting some
small hail potential this afternoon. Severe weather is not
expected given the weak shear in place under the upper low. Rain
showers should clear out after sunset, with the front pushing
south and east of the area. Cold and dry air advection is
forecast to quickly overtake the region, with lows falling into
the mid 40s for most.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Below normal temperatures for the weekend.

- Low end (less than 15 percent) chance of a passing shower or
  two Saturday afternoon in the Eastern Midlands.

Saturday and Saturday Night: An upper low is expected to be
centered over the Mid-Atlantic Saturday morning with the axis
of its associated trough along the coastline. At the surface, a
coastal low is forecast to be centered off the Delmarva coast
with a cold front extending southward just off the Southeastern
coast. Expect the upper trough to continue trekking eastward
while the surface low remains relatively stationary. However,
the associated front is expected to push further off shore. Some
wrap around moisture from the surface low could spark an
isolated shower or two for the eastern Midlands, but chances
continue to decrease due to the location of the low and
associated front. The GEFS and ECMWF ensemble both indicate
roughly a 10-20% chance for the eastern Midlands, while the HREF
maxes out around 10% in some spots for Saturday. Temperatures
are expected to be roughly 5-10 degrees below normal in the
afternoon.

Sunday and Sunday Night: The upper trough and associated surface
front continue moving eastward, which is expected to be replaced
by upper ridging and high pressure. This combination brings dry
conditions and the start of a warming trend. While afternoon
highs are forecast to be somewhat below average, they are
expected to be a few degrees warmer than Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- An extended period of dry conditions expected.

- Above normal temperatures expected early next week.

The upper ridge is forecast to flatten out some to begin the
week as a trough moves into the region. Despite the flattening,
temperatures are forecast to be above average to begin the week
with dry air in place. A cold front is then forecast to move
toward and through the area most likely on Tuesday. There
remains some timing differences among guidance with this front,
however. Regardless of the timing of the front, it is forecast
to be a dry front due to the low PWATs as they are anticipated
to be an inch or less as the front moves through. Temperatures
drop again after this front for midweek, but start to rebound
some as an upper ridge is anticipated to filter over the area.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions expected through tonight, with some MVFR
cigs hanging around this morning.

Well, the stratus that seemed unlikely a few hours ago did end
up developing. All sites other than AGS currently have some
extent of ceiling restriction. This is likely to continue
through mid morning as the stratus slowly works its way
through. The rest of the forecast is on track, with gusty
westerly flow expected throughout the day today ahead of a
secondary front. Added VCSH to CAE/CUB to account for the
development of showers this evening along said front. Generally,
this rain is expected to remain north of the Augusta and
Orangeburg terminals. Tonight, dry air should filter in across
the TAF sites and result in a clearing of the clouds from the
area.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Drier air returns to the region for
the weekend into next week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...