Weekapaug, Rhode Island 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

423
FXUS61 KBOX 131805
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
205 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will be
possible at times for the second half of this week...but not
expecting a washout with the greatest risk for activity late
Wednesday into early Thursday and possibly sometime Friday
and/or Saturday. It will also become a bit more humid. The
temperatures looks to turn cooler than normal by early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Key Messages...

* Increasing mid/high cloudiness overnight with lows 45 to 55
* A few showers possible toward daybreak in our CT zones

Details...

Shortwave energy over the Tennessee Valley will lift into the
Ohio Valley tonight. This will result in increasing mid-high
level cloudiness from the west overnight. However...surface
ridging to our east will exert enough of an influence to keep
our weather mainly dry tonight. We may see a few showers develop
toward daybreak in CT where enough warm advection aloft/forcing
may result in the development of a few showers.

Overnight low temps should be in the 45 to 55 degree
range across the region. The coolest readings will be the
typical low-lying locations of north central/northeast
MA...while the mildest readings will be found in northern CT
where clouds arrive early along with a bit better low level
moisture return.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

Key Messages...

* Considerable cloudiness Wed but peeks of sun especially across
  eastern New England...highs mainly in the upper 60s/lower 70s

* A few showers possible Wed mainly across western MA/CT...but
  not expecting a washout

* Greater risk for a round of scattered showers and perhaps a
  few embedded t-storms will be Wed night

Details...

Wednesday...

Shortwave energy over the Ohio Valley will induce a modest
southeast LLJ across the region on Wed. This will be battling
the upper level ridging over the Atlantic nosing into eastern
New England. So in a nutshell...we do expect a few amount of
clouds on Wed but there may be peeks of sunshine especially
across eastern New England closer to the mid level ridging.
Meanwhile...a few showers will be possible at times mainly
across western MA and CT. However...not expecting a washout with
many hours of dry weather is expected too. High temps on Wed
will mainly be in the upper 60s to the lower 70s...perhaps a bit
cooler along portions of the very immediate coast.

Wednesday night...

The mid level ridge axis will finally push further east Wed
night as shortwave energy moves into the mid-Atlantic states.
The shortwave energy will be de-amplifying as it moves east...so
that will limit the forcing associated with it. That being
said...there is a decent signature for an elevated instability
burst as Showalter Indices drop from above 10 to near or below
zero within 12 hours. In fact...some of the guidance is
indicated several hundred J/KG of elevated Cape.

Given the burst of elevated instability...we expect to see a
round of scattered showers develop Wed night and there may be a
few embedded t-storms as well if we end up with enough MUCape.
The increasing low level moisture will hold overnight low temps
mainly in the middle to upper 50s. We may also see some patchy
fog develop Wed night too.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Key Messages:

* Warming as the week progresses, along with increased humidity

* Best chances for showers/storms Friday into Saturday. Otherwise,
  dry through this period.

Details...

Strengthening southerly flow will continue Wednesday night into
Thursday, which may lead to some stray showers heading into
Thursday. A weakening upper level low from the south will open up as
it moves to the northeast Thursday into Friday, then pushes against
ridging that will shift into the Canadian Maritimes.

Another low will move across southern Canada and a cold front will
move over the region heading into Friday/Saturday. This will help
provide better dynamics suited for some showers and storms.
Ensembles are starting to hint at some increased instability over
southern New England during this period, however, the greatest
chances for storms remain further to the west and southwest.
Temperatures heading into the weekend will also increase with the
continued southerly flow. The low will move off to the east heading
into the start of next week and the upper trough associated with it
will shift over southern New England, which should bring
temperatures back down to more average levels for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18z TAF Update...

This afternoon into tonight...High Confidence.

VFR conditions prevail most of this evening...but some MVFR
conditions may develop across western MA/CT after midnight.
ESE winds of 5 to 15 knots this afternoon will become light/calm
later tonight.

Wednesday...Moderate Confidence.

MVFR conditions should dominate across western MA/CT on
Wed with a few showers possible at times...but not a washout.
Meanwhile...thinking a broken deck of VFR ceilings hang tough
for much of the day across eastern MA/RI. ESE winds 5-10 knots.

Wednesday night...Moderate Confidence in TAF.

Widespread MVFR-IFR conditions overspread the rest of the region
with the lowest conditions likely across the interior. We also
expect a round of scattered showers to cross with region Wed
night with perhaps even a few embedded t-storms. Light winds
with an easterly component.

KBOS TAF...High Confidence in TAF.

KBDL TAF...High Confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Thursday through Saturday/...

Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, isolated
TSRA.

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
isolated TSRA.

Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
isolated TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...

Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight through Wednesday night...High Confidence.

Upper level ridging east of the waters will be enough to keep
winds/seas below small craft thresholds tonight into most of the
day on Wed. However...this upper level ridging slides further
east Wed night allowing for winds to turn more SE and building
swell. While winds will generally remain below SCA criteria...5
foot seas should develop across our southern outer-waters from
the swell and will hoist small craft advisories for seas in this
region.

Outlook /Thursday through Saturday/...

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5
ft. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated
thunderstorms.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers,
isolated thunderstorms.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday
     for ANZ255-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frank/Hrencecin
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...Hrencecin
AVIATION...Frank/Hrencecin
MARINE...Frank/Hrencecin