Providence, Rhode Island 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

437
FXUS61 KBOX 300856
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
356 AM EST Thu Jan 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Cold and blustery today with windchill values in the teens
today. A frontal system Friday into Friday night spreads rain for most of
Southern New England, although some mixed wintry precipitation is
expected for areas north of the Massachusetts Turnpike. Drying out
for the weekend. Another fast-moving low pressure area may bring a
minor, light snow accumulation to northern MA late Sunday night into
Monday. Drier and around seasonable temperatures then return through
the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

Rising heights and high pressure to the south will lead to dry
conditions and sunny skies across southern New England today.
Despite rising 850mb temps from -15C to -10C, high temps at the
surface will remain in the mid to upper 20s.  It wont be as windy as
we saw the previous couple of days, but a tight pressure gradient
will again lead to gusts of 20-30mph today.  The wind chill factor
will be near zero at the start of the day and will only rise to the
teens in the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...

Increasing cloud cover is expected overnight ahead of a 500mb closed
low over the Ohio River Valley.  Winds diminish overnight as the
pressure gradient relaxes and the boundary layer decouples.  With
temperatures warming at 850 mb to 0C by Friday morning, overnight
lows stay in the upper teens to low 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Key Messages:

* Frontal system Fri into Fri night brings mainly rain for areas
  south of the Mass Pike, but some wintry weather (snow and/or
  icing) may begin before rain develops for locations along/north of
  the Pike. Snow/ice accums are still uncertain but potential for
  some wintry weather impacts Fri for northern MA to the Mass Pike.

* Turning drier with cooler than normal temps for the weekend.

* Light snow possible overnight Sunday night into Monday, but minor
  accums expected in northern MA.

* Drier and seasonable Tue-Wed.

Details:

Friday and Friday Night:

A frontal system is expected to affect Southern New England Fri into
Fri night, with steadier precipitation spreading in associated with
an elongated warm frontal boundary.

Due to sensitivities in thermal structure and surface temps, there
is still a degree of uncertainty on precipitation types and
changeovers as this event evolves. Recent trends in QPF onset
suggest precip may arrive late enough (near the south coast by mid-
morning Fri, gradually spreading northward into the late-AM/early-
PM) for initial light southerly flow to allow for surface temps to
warm above freezing for some (or most?) of Southern New England.
Some warming also takes place aloft through the 925-850 mb level in
response to SWly LLJ of 45-50kt, however recent guidance shows
corridor of sub-0C air near and north of the Mass Pike by the
afternoon. As low pressure pulls away and northerly flow allows for
colder air to drain southward for Fri night.

Right now...have higher confidence in precip types as mainly rain at
least for areas south of the Mass Pike for the majority of this
event, though it may briefly end as snow or freezing drizzle as the
system pulls away. Greater uncertainty in precip types and
accumulations lie along and north of the Mass Pike, with a continued
potential for a variety of precip types all still in the cards. We
are still not yet into the mesoscale model forecast guidance horizon
yet and it`s hoped once we get into that range in the next 24 hours,
those details should come into greater focus. While pinning down
predominant precip types and changeovers is a challenge, potential
for minor impacts associated with wintry weather accumulations are
anticipated for areas north of the Mass Pike, which could involve
snow and/or icing. But with a variety of wintry p-types and/or rain
cutting into accums, perhaps significantly, it seems more likely
that snow and/or icing accums would not be substantial.

Saturday into Sunday:

High pressure then builds in for most of the weekend, with a period
of slightly cooler than normal temperatures but dry weather. Highs
Sat and Sunday in the 30s with Saturday night lows around 5 to 10
above zero for northern MA and low to mid teens south coast, Cape
and Islands.

Sunday Night and Monday:

Another fast-moving Alberta Clipper low pressure passes to our north
late Sun night and into early on Mon. Increasing cloudiness
associated with warm advection Sun night, with a burst of steadier
light snow breaking out mainly for areas north of the Mass Pike
overnight into early on Mon, with a snow to rain mix for areas south
of the Mass Pike. Model guidance seems to indicate the best
isentropic lifting passing to our north into NH/ME, with better
potential for higher accumulations reserved for those locations.
This is also reflected in multi-ensemble snow probs, which currently
only show moderate (40%) probs of snow accums 1" or more north of
the Mass Pike.

Drying out by Mon aftn with blustery SW winds, with highs Mon into
the mid 40s. We usher in another cooldown by Mon night with lows in
the 20s.

Tuesday and Wednesday:

High pressure then brings dry weather for Tue and Wed, with
seasonable temps.


&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06Z TAF Update:

Through 12z Thursday: High confidence.

VFR. NW gusts 25-35 kt early, though will become around 20-30
kt by daybreak.

Today: High confidence.

VFR. NW winds continue to gust around 25 kt thru the morning
hours, then will begin to gradually decrease while becoming
WNW/W around 10-12 kt by afternoon. WSW winds expected for most
airports around 10 kt late in the day.

Tonight: High confidence.

VFR, though with increasing VFR type cloud cover toward early
Fri AM. South winds around 10 kt.

Friday: Moderate confidence.

Ceilings lower to MVFR-IFR levels as warm frontal precip moves
northward. Precip may be of wintry types (-SN/-FZRA) for
airports near/north of the Mass Pike with some snow/ice accums
possible but timing and duration of frozen p-types is uncertain.
Somewhat higher confidence in mainly RA south of the Mass Pike.
SW winds around 5-10 kt ease and could become light/variable,
with LLWS possible.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. NW gusts around 25 kt easing
through today while becoming WNW/W around 10-15 kt. WSW winds by
late aftn around 10 kt which continue into tonight.

KBDL TAF...High Confidence in TAF. NW gusts around 30-35 kt
easing overnight, then becoming WNW around 20-25 kt by early
afternoon. WSW winds develop late afternoon around 10 kt.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...

Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. RA, chance FZRA.

Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. RA, chance
SN, slight chance FZRA.

Saturday through Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SN.

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SN, chance RA.

Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance RA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High- greater than 60 percent.

High Confidence.

Decreasing winds today from the west at 25-30 knots this
morning, turning SW at 10-15 knots this evening. Freezing spray
remains a concern today as air temperatures remain in the 20s.
Seas decrease from 5-10 feet this morning to 3-5 feet this
evening.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...

Friday: High risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Rain. Local visibility 1 nm or less.

Friday Night: High risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain, slight chance of
freezing rain.

Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of
rain, chance of snow. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Freezing Spray Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ230>232-250-251-254-255.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ231-
     235-237-251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     ANZ232>234.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for ANZ250.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Loconto/KP
NEAR TERM...KP
SHORT TERM...KP
LONG TERM...Loconto
AVIATION...Loconto/KP
MARINE...Loconto/KP