Pawtucket, Rhode Island 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

316
FXUS61 KBOX 200815
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
415 AM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier and less humid weather develops today, but it will be
windy. While there will be several periods of dry weather this
weekend, monitoring for potential rounds of thunderstorms mainly
Saturday evening through Sunday evening. A multi- day stretch
of significant heat continues to look more likely for Monday
through Wednesday, with the potential for heat to reach
dangerous levels before cooling off by late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
400 AM Update:

Key Messages:

* Mostly sunny and turning much less humid, but windy conditions
  are expected.

* Wind Advisory for the northern half of Massachusetts, peak
  gusts mid morning to mid afternoon with gusts 35-50 mph.

* Seasonably warm, highs in the lower to mid 80s.

Details:

Still rather humid early this morning, but significant change is
right on our doorstep. A seasonably-potent, 997 mb sfc low was
located early this morning north of Montreal, QC, and was draping a
sfc cold front south of it through the Green Mts in VT on southward
toward the Berkshires. The airmass behind this frontal boundary is
quite a bit less humid, e.g. dewpoints in NY early this morning have
tumbled into the mid 50s, but it has also turned quite windy as well
in the post-frontal generally cloudy airmass. Through a combo of
strong 3 to 6 hourly pressure rises and a WNW jetcore of 45-50 kt,
many sites in central and eastern NY have seen gusts in the 30 to 40
mph range. A testament to the post-frontal low-level flow is that
radar is picking up on lake effect streamers coming off Lake Ontario
and Lake Erie into western NY. Expect the cold front to move toward
the offshore waters shortly before sunrise, with a westerly and
breezy windshift taking place along with steadily falling dewpoints
as we move into the morning.

Shaping up to be a pretty nice close to the workweek on the whole,
with mostly sunny conditions, lowering humidity levels toward more
tolerable levels, and with high temperatures into the low to mid
80s. The main forecast issue for today though is that it will be
becoming quite windy as soon as this morning. The strong insolation
should deepen the PBL, and BUFKIT momentum transfer progs offer
gusts developing in the 35 to 45 mph range, with gusts at times
reaching up to 50 mph across the northern half of MA. Some
solutions, such as the RAP, suggest potential for even stronger
gusts. MOS guidance also shows sustained winds around 20-25 kt,
which is telling. Peak of the gusty winds should take place from mid-
morning to mid-afternoon; later in the day, the strong low-level
westerly jetstreak will have moved offshore and the strength of
gusts should then ease rather substantially. Felt that with a number
of outdoor events likely occurring today and fully-leafed trees,
forecast gusts this strong was worth hoisting a targeted Wind
Advisory for the northern half of MA with coordination with NWS
Albany and Portland/Gray. Gusts look slightly less across CT, RI and
southeast MA, but it`ll end up being pretty breezy across all of
Southern New England today.

Generally tranquil conditions are expected tonight as low pressure
pulls away early tonight, allowing for decreasing westerly winds and
a period of mostly clear skies. Will have to watch for at least an
increase in cloud cover toward early morning Saturday stemming from
an active convective pattern over the Gt Lakes region; NAM-based
solutions show potential for remnant showers extending into the
southern third of Southern New England but will take a waiting
approach with these for now and maintained dry weather. Noticeably
cooler and less humid tonight with lows in the upper 50s to lower-
mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM Update:

Key Messages:

* Mainly dry Sat. Though there will be dry periods, monitoring
  the potential for thunderstorms Sat night thru Sun night. Some
  which could become strong to severe.

* Low confidence on timing any thunderstorms and/or periods of
  dry weather. Stay tuned!

* Turning warmer and more humid.

Saturday and Sunday:

From a big-picture point of view, 500 mb heights begin to generally
rise in response to an amplifying heat ridge over the lower Ohio
Valley. This amplifying ridge will also lead to an belt of enhanced
WNWly flow and an active storm track across the Northeast, but will
also lead to the eastward advection of extremely steep lapse rates
in the 700 to 500 mb layer from the northern Plains and Rockies,
which meteorologists refer to as an "elevated mixed layer".
Instability profiles across a number of models indicate somewhat
capped but extreme instability (CAPEs in the 3000-4000 J/kg
neighborhood with lifted indices around -10), which is a hallmark of
that elevated mixed layer pattern. There`s been indication over the
last couple days worth of model runs of hard-to-time pieces of
energy moving around the ridge from Ontario moving east/southeast
into somewhere in the Northeast. But exactly where and when are
highly uncertain and will hinge on details and active thunderstorm
patterns taking place over the Upper Midwest/Gt Lakes region.
Outcomes range from increasingly warm and humid weather but
generally dry throughout, to cloudier conditions and potential for
rather potent thunderstorms, which could ensue at any point, even
during the overnight to early morning hours. The Storm Prediction
Center`s Day 2 and Day 3 convective outlook discussion convey this
uncertainty, which indicates severe weather potential for both
weekend days.

In light of the above, forecast confidence for the weekend is
unfortunately lower than average. There is potential for significant
forecast changes, and we would caution to not lock into any specific
solution as of yet. While we currently think the first part of Sat
ends up being generally dry, at least a low chance for thunderstorms
could exist at any point starting Sat night through Sun night. We
kept a rather generic 15-25% PoP for thunderstorms for that
timeframe, which will need to be refined especially when it comes to
timing. Those details will also affect forecast temps and humidity
levels, and while it will be becoming increasingly muggy, the
temperature forecast for the weekend will depend on cloud
cover/areas of showers or storms. Indicated highs in the middle 80s
for Sat, and into the upper 80s to low 90s for Sunday.

&&

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:

* A multi-day stretch of potentially dangerous heat and humidity is
  looking more likely for early to mid next week. Heat indices could
  approach the 105 to 110 degree range Mon and Tue. Heat headlines
  could be needed.

* Backdoor cool front brings less above average temperatures for
  late in the week, but also more unsettled with daily t-storm
  chances Thu-Fri.

Details:

The main story for early to mid next week is a multi-day stretch of
significant and potentially dangerous heat and humidity. The
building heat ridge to our southwest will continue to establish
itself over the mid-Atlantic states. The peak of the dangerous heat
and humidity continues to be primarily Monday and Tuesday, and
perhaps lingering into Wednesday as well. High temperatures
themselves on Monday and Tuesday could approach 100 degrees and lows
in the mid 70s, and adding in humidity suggest potential for daytime
heat indices in the 105 to 110 degree range. NWS HeatRisk graphics
also conveys Moderate to Major heat risk levels. It also does not
appear we`ll see a reprieve from any thunderstorms. Given the
relative consistency over the last several days, later shifts will
need to give consideration to Extreme Heat Watches to be valid for
some point in this period, which are the replacement to Excessive
Heat Watches.

The upper ridge then shifts southward into the Carolinas toward
either Wed or on Thurs, which will bring cooler (less above average)
temperatures with a possible backdoor cool front ushering in that
change. As the ridge shifts southward, it also puts Southern New
England into the active convective storm track again, so the risk
for daily showers and thunderstorms should again re-develop for late
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06Z TAF Update:

Through 12z Friday: High confidence.

Leftover IFR/LIFR over ACK should scatter to VFR, with but SCT-
BKN VFR elsewhere. A cold front will bring a windshift from S
around 5-10 kt to WSW/W and increase in speed to 10-15 kt with
gusts 20-30 kt, highest gusts closer to 12z Friday.

Today: High confidence.

VFR. Gusty westerly winds, with speeds 15-20 kt with gusts
35-40 kt thru 22z, then steadily decreasing to around 10-12 kt
with gusts low-mid 20s kt range toward sundown.

Tonight: High confidence.

VFR although with some increase in VFR-based clouds late.
Easing WNW winds to 5-10 kt.

Saturday: High confidence overall, but lower on rain/thunder
chances.

Mainly VFR. There are mixed signals if we see any showers or
perhaps a rumble or two of thunder during the second half of the
day for the southern airports (BDL-PVD-Cape area). Left any
SHRA/TS mention out of the TAFs for now but something we`ll be
monitoring. W to SW winds around 5-10 kt.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. VFR. Windshift from S
around 10 kt to WSW/W by 09-10z Fri at 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25
kt. W winds then increase more substantially around/after 14z
to around 15-20 kt/gusts 35-40 kt, which tend to ease after
20-22z.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. VFR. Windshift from S
around 10 kt to WSW/W by 07-08z at 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt.
Winds then increase more substantially after 13z to around 13-17
kt with gusts low 30s-kt range, which tend to ease 19-21z.

Outlook /Monday through Tuesday/...

VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Have converted small craft advisories on most eastern waters
over to Gale Warnings, with small craft advisories continuing
over the southern waters. Westerly wind gusts of 30-35 kt are
expected to develop today, then steadily decrease tonight and
remain below SCA criterion into Saturday. Dry weather is
expected with good visibilities.

Due to building seas and the stronger winds today, rip current
statements for high rip current risk remain posted for the south
coast. Those beaches with west and south-facing exposures are
more prone to see dangerous rip currents today.

Outlook /Monday through Tuesday/...

Winds less than 25 kt.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening
     for MAZ002>016-026.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for MAZ020>024.
RI...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for RIZ006>008.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ230-231-250-
     251-254.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ232>237-255-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Loconto
NEAR TERM...Loconto
SHORT TERM...Loconto
LONG TERM...Loconto
AVIATION...Loconto
MARINE...Loconto