Misquamicut, Rhode Island 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

712
FXUS61 KBOX 100517
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
117 AM EDT Sat May 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Moderate to heavy rain continues today as a strong and slow-moving
low-pressure system moves through the region. Rain gradually
diminishes tonight into Saturday. High pressure returns for the
latter half of the weekend into early next week. High pressure
however is forecast to move offshore towards middle of next week
with another frontal system approaching.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
10 PM update...

Key Points:

* Increasing coverage of showers overnight with embedded thunder
  and downpours

Dry slot has overspread the region with steadier and heavier
rainfall moving to the east. Just scattered showers for the next
few hours, but as mid level low moves in from the west
overnight expect an increase in shower coverage. Marginal
elevated instability also develops under the cold pool aloft so
some convective showers and embedded thunder with downpours
possible. General flood threat has diminished and flood watch
will likely be dropped overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Key messages...

* Increasingly dry with slowly decreasing clouds through the day.

Dry slot works its way overhead during the early morning but
wraparound moisture returns to eastern MA on the back side of the
low which will allow for the resurgence of some scattered showers
through at least noon. Overcast skies also continue for much of the
morning, but will start to see breaks of sun in the afternoon,
likely quite clear by evening. As the low exits into Nova Scotia NW
winds on the back side will become increasingly gusty during the
afternoon as the mixing height increases. After sunset winds will
decrease significantly but likely breezy enough to keep us from
radiating too much; lows drop to near 50F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Points:

* Dry and warmer Sunday with continued warming trend through
  next week.

* Temperatures lean above normal next week.

* Mainly dry early next week with an unsettled pattern
  developing mid-week bringing periods of showers and higher
  humidity.

Details...

Sunday through early next week:

Dry conditions expected Sunday as a surface high builds in from
northwest. Expect NW winds 5-12 mph with gusts up to 20 mph in the
afternoon. Highs range in the 60s across southern New England with
few spots hitting 70. With sufficient mixing in the afternoon,
Sunday will be the driest day we`ve had in a while, with relative
humidity values dropping the upper 20s to low 30s across the
interior.

Into next week, a mid level ridge moves into the region. Accompanied
by warming 850mb temperatures, this will bring warming trend in
temperatures from the weekend with mainly dry conditions. Ensemble
guidance shows temperatures leaning above normal for much of the
week. This puts high temperatures generally in the 70 degree range
most days except the Cape and Islands in the 60s. Tuesday should be
the warmest day with highs in the mid to upper 70s with even a shot
at 80s in some spots across the interior.

Mid-week through Friday:

By mid-week, we shift to a more unsettled weather pattern. Ensemble
guidance shows a general consensus with a slow moving southerly
stream upper trough moving across the region through Friday. This
will bring up a plume of above normal moisture (~120-170% of
normal). Upper level support will be limited, but there should be
weak ascent and sufficient moisture to support periods of scattered
showers Wednesday through Friday. With the increased moisture,
dewpoints will rise into the upper 50s/low 60s making it feel more
humid.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06z TAF Update:

Rest of Tonight: High Confidence.

IFR/LIFR with scattered off and on showers through about 10z,
then shower coverage should decrease. Winds turn northerly
overnight as the surface low pivots over the region.

Saturday: High Confidence.

IFR conditions improving to MVFR conditions early afternoon.
There is a chance for a round of scattered showers late
morning-early afternoon. Winds transition to NW by 12z Saturday
then toward the WNW for the afternoon with gusts 20-25 kts.
Conditions improve toward VFR generally from west to east in the
mid to late afternoon.

Saturday night: High Confidence.

VFR. W winds 5-10 kts.

Sunday: High Confidence

VFR. NW winds gusting 15-20 knots

KBOS TAF...High confidence.

IFR/LIFR continues tonight. Off and on rain showers through mid
saturday morning, then drying conditions and improving CIGS
saturday afternoon.

KBDL TAF...High confidence.

IFR/LIFR continues tonight. Rain tapers off tonight after 10z
with CIGS improving to MVFR.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday: VFR. Breezy.

Sunday Night: VFR.

Monday through Monday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Tuesday: VFR.

Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

Wednesday: Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight: High Confidence.

Low pressure system will bring rain showers through tonight and
increasing southeasterly winds to the waters through tonight.
Seas begin to increase to 4-5 feet. Winds remain less than 25
kt. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening.

Saturday and Saturday night: High Confidence.

W winds 15-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts on the outer southern
waters during the afternoon. Winds diminish overnight. Seas 2-4
ft during the day, diminishing to 2-4 ft by Saturday night.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Sunday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Tuesday through Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain
showers.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for CTZ002>004.
MA...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for MAZ002>004-008>012-
     026.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ230-231-236-251.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ232>235-237.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJC/BW
NEAR TERM...KJC/BW
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...Mensch
AVIATION...KP
MARINE...BW/Mensch