Little Compton, Rhode Island 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

184
FXUS61 KBOX 011034
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
634 AM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly clear and generally dry to start Sunday but increasing
cloudiness and westerly breezes will lead to a cooler than normal
first day of June. Quiet and warm stretch of weather Monday through
late week, a few locations may approach 90F. Spot shower possible
Thursday, better chance for storms and showers on Friday with a cold
front passage. Temperatures trend seasonable next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages:

* Dry, but breezy and cooler than normal, with highs in the 60s.

The last of the showers are coming to an end over western MA/CT and
northern MA at this hour; should be dry by 4 am, though the mid/high
clouds will take until 7-8am to clear. Further south, nighttime
microphysics satellite imagery already shows many breaks in the
clouds over RI and southeast MA.

Today the trough is slow to exit leaving cyclonic flow and a cold
pool aloft; this contributes to widespread diurnal cloudcover after
sunrise and continuing until sunset. We`ll also see efficient mixing
up to 850 mb under the CAA pattern which will bring down wind gusts
on the order of 25-30 mph. Additionally, temperatures will be even a
few degrees cooler than Saturday, in the mid to upper 60s. This is a
bit below normal for the start of June. Tonight skies clear with
sunset and should set up for a night of radiational cooling as winds
calm with the decoupling boundary layer.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Dry, sunny, and warmer on Monday.

Well, the weekend is over, so as one would expect we`ll kick off a
stretch of very nice weather for those that enjoy dry and warm
conditions. While the upper trough continues to take it`s sweet time
exiting, building surface high pressure will help keep any wet
weather away. More likely we`ll simply see some more diurnal
cumulus. So, a mix of clouds and sun, but we also kick off the trend
of steadily warming temperatures. 850 mb temps rise from around 3C
Sunday afternoon to 6C Monday which should translate to a 5F+ warmer
high temperature on Monday, in the low to mid 70s. Crucially, it
also won`t be windy as the pressure gradient relaxes.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Taste of summer with rising temperatures and increased humidity.

* A moderate risk of heat-related impacts Wednesday and Thursday per
  NWS HeatRisk map.

* Spot shower chance on Thursday afternoon, followed by a cold front
  sometime Friday afternoon or evening.

* Temperatures trend seasonable for next weekend.

Monday evening into Tuesday a shortwave pivots about the departing
system, do not expect any precipitation as PWATs fall to less than
1/2". Should be dry enough to ward off complete cloud cover, but
with clear skies, light wind across interior southern New England
the overnight lows will fall into the middle 40s while the coastal
plain is in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Those seeking summer weather will enjoy this upcoming week! Ridge of
high pressure moves in from the west and transport a much warmer air
mass to southern New England. On Tuesday, 850mb temperatures are +8C
to +10C, forecast soundings indicate there will be deep mixing of
the boundary layer, able to tap into the warmer temperatures aloft.
With lower dewpoints in the lower 50s and highs in the upper 70s and
lower 80s, will have a comfortable feel. Areas near the coast will
be a few degrees cooler due to the likelihood of a sea-breeze. The
ridge remains over southern New England Wednesday and Thursday with
temperatures increasing aloft, at 850mb, between +15C and +18C! As
with Tuesday, BUFKIT continues the deep mixing, tapping into those
warmer conditions aloft for Wednesday and Thursday, resulting highs
away from the coast in the middle and upper 80s! Cannot rule out a
few areas nearing the 90 degree mark, Merrimack Valley and lower
Connecticut River Valley. This is supported by NBM (QMD) with
probabilities of 50%-70% for the entire Connecticut River Valley and
identical probabilities for the Merrimack Valley. In addition, both
days will be humid, dewpoints climb into the lower 60s. There will
be little nighttime relief Wednesday and Thursday night, nighttime
low are in the low to middle 60s. At this time the NWS HeatRisk map
indicates a large swath of southern New England under the moderate
category, this level of heat affects most individuals sensitive to
heat, especially those without effective cooling and/or adequate
hydration. Impacts possible in some health systems and in heat-
sensitive industries. A cold front late week brings relief, but
there is uncertainty with the timing. Depending, Friday may have
highs return into the middle 80s if the front comes in later in the
day/evening. Temperatures cool off, but remain seasonable for next
weekend in the middle to upper 70s.

This week will allow southern New England to dry out. Low chances
for a few pop-up storms on Thursday afternoon/evening with a weak
forcing passing the top of the mid-level ridge. A better chance for
storms return late week, as a cold front approaches sometime Friday
afternoon or evening. Thankfully there is plenty of time to monitor
this, because IF it were to come in slowly, we could be looking at
rain to kick off next weekend. And believe me, this forecaster is
tried of the rainy weekend vibe that we`ve come accustom to here in
southern New England.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

12z TAF Update:

Today and Tonight: High confidence.

VFR. W winds 10-15 kts, gusting to 22-27 kt between 12z and 23z.
Winds quickly decrease after 23z.

Monday: High confidence.

VFR. W/SW winds 5 to 15 kts.

BOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.

BDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night through Wednesday Night: VFR.

Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Small Craft Advisories extend into Sunday with westerly winds
25-30 kt. Additionally, the stronger winds and elevated seas
will lead to a high risk for rip currents today on the Islands.
Rip Current Statements have been issued. Those who are
venturing to the beach should swim near lifeguards and be aware
of the potential for rip currents. Tonight into Monday winds
quickly decrease after sunset and seas decrease to 2-4 ft.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Tuesday through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for MAZ023-024.
RI...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for RIZ008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ230-
     231-251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ232>237-250-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BW/Dooley
NEAR TERM...BW
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...BW/Dooley
AVIATION...BW/Dooley
MARINE...BW/Dooley