Hazleton, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

738
FXUS61 KBGM 032324
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
Issued by National Weather Service State College PA
724 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm air will continue to build on the back side of dry high
pressure during the next couple of days. A cold frontal
boundary will then drift over the area with showery waves of
low pressure, and perhaps thunder at times, from Thursday
through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

With the evening updates, added a mention of haze to the
forecast for a few hours this evening then again tomorrow
afternoon. This was based off of the latest HRRR vertically
integrated smoke guidance. Some minor adjustments to
temperatures and dewpoints as well.


210 PM Update...

Temperatures have started to warm faster now that the smoke is
thinning out so afternoon highs were bumped back up. Dew points
have also mixed lower so they were lowered through the rest of
the afternoon.

1220 PM Update...

High pressure remains in place through the near term with a
thick layer of smoke making its way through aloft. With the
thick layer of smoke, pyrometers from under the thicker layers
were showing values of around 600 when they should be closer to
800 watts per meter. Afternoon highs were lowered 3 to 5 degrees
based off of forecast differences observed over the last few
hours.

Looking at the HRRR smoke model, it does look like the smoke
will be hanging around into tomorrow so high temperatures will
likely be lower. Still will be the warmest day of the year so
far by quite a bit with highs still reaching the mid to upper
80s. One interesting thing is in the layer that the smoke is
trapped in, there is some steeper lapse rates above the smoke
layer with increasing relative humidities in the layer as the
ridge axis moves east. The smoke may absorb enough incoming
short wave radiation to result in some elevated convection in
portions of NY. Given the uncertainty in that happening since
it depends on the density of the smoke layer, chances of
precipitation have been left out of the weather grids.

Strengthening warm air advection Wednesday night along with
increasing cloud cover, overnight lows will be warm. Stronger
ridging is forecast with the trough to the west slowing down
slightly in this mornings model runs. Chances of precipitation
were lowered below slight chance for Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
210 PM Update...

Main concern this period is the potential of a few strong
thunderstorms in the area Thursday afternoon-evening.

Trends in models have continued to slow the front with the
timing trending to the afternoon and evening hours. Shear has
trended down with ensemble means down to around 20 knots vs the
25 to 30 the last few days. Forecast soundings have a good
amount of mid level dry air as well as steep low level lapse
rates so while organized convection is less likely, microburst
are still possible with any storm that forms.

The front slows and stalls Thursday night into Friday with
chances of precipitation kept through the overnight hours.
Forecast soundings do show some elevated instability and with
some weak mid level convergence, a few storms could continue to
develop after dark.

Friday into Friday night, the stalled front transitions to a
warm front and with showers and thunderstorms along and north
of the front. A developing low off of the Carolina coast will
need to be watched. If it can develop and take on tropical
characteristics, it may help advect deeper tropical moisture
into the warm front. This could lead to high rainfall rates in
storms along the warm front with potential for slow movement
and training.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
230 PM Update...

There is still a lot of uncertainty to start the long term as it
will depend on how the potential tropical low off of the
Carolinas and how it impacts the through moving through this
weekend. Heavy rain is a threat with deeper tropical moisture
advecting north associated with the low off of the Carolinas.
The speed of the trough will also be impacted as a stronger low
may slow the trough leading to longer residence time and
increased risk of slow moving storms with heavy rain. Trends in
the GFS and ECMWF have been towards a more inland track which
helps keep the trough more progressive but we will have to see
if this trend continues.

The rest of the long term will remain somewhat unsettled as we
get into a more zonal flow pattern with the jet stream in close
proximity. This will open the door to frequent chances of
shortwaves that would trigger showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

No major changes from the previous discussion below. Added
mention of some VFR cumulus around 5,000 feet tomorrow
afternoon. Confidence with only marginal LLWS overnight fairly
high.

Dry high pressure in charge with VFR conditions through this TAF
period. Some LLWS develops tonight as high pressure moves off to
the east with the LLWS slackening tomorrow morning.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night...Mainly VFR.

Thursday through Saturday...Front in vicinity with waves of low
pressure will occasional showers and associated restrictions.
A chance for thunder as well, especially afternoons.

Sunday...Low pressure moving east with lingering showers but
improving conditions.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The forecast high at Binghamton is forecasted to be 84 degrees
on Wednesday 6/4. This would tie the old record of 84 set back
in 1951. Both Syracuse and Scranton forecasted highs are
expected to be well under the record values.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG/MDP
NEAR TERM...AJG/MWG
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG/MDP
AVIATION...AJG/MWG
CLIMATE...