Erie, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

657
FXUS61 KCLE 271338
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
938 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A lingering boundary will lift north as a warm front this morning as
a low pressure system tracks northeast through the region. An
associated cold front will move across the area late Friday night
into Saturday before lifting north as a warm front on Sunday night.
Another cold front associated with a weaker low pushes east late
Monday into Tuesday. High pressure returns midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
940 AM update...
A few adjustments to the current forecast. Added PoPs to the
southern portion of the CWA over Richland, Co to account for the
current thunderstorms over the area. Lowered temperatures for
the next few hours across NW OH as well as they were running
cooler.

A low pressure system associated with a short wave disturbance will
move northeast through the Great Lakes region today, lifting a
stalled boundary north as a warm front this morning. The positioning
of this system will leave the entire CWA within the warm sector
today, allowing for a rapid increase in instability to 2000+ J/kg by
this afternoon. Overall shear looks limited in the area given the
LLJ`s positioning to the west, but 15-25 knots should assist in
updraft development. There is a bit more moisture in the mid-levels
with this round of storms, so downbursts may be slightly harder to
attain, however gusty winds will be the primary convection concern
with any storms that develop. Overall thinking right now is that the
convection will again be scattered in nature given the mesoscale
environment and its displacement ahead of the upper level trough and
surface front. However, there is a better potential for organized
convection closer to the center of the parent low north of the area
which has the potential to drift into the area, especially across NW
OH. Given the current model guidance and in collaboration with
SPC, opted to maintain the Day 1 Marginal Risk for severe
weather with a Slight Risk just north of the Toledo Metro. Will
need to continue to monitor the overall trends after sunrise for
any potential expansion needed further south. In addition to
the gusty wind potential, there is also a Day 1 Marginal ERO for
the entire area given the potential for very heavy and
efficient rainfall with deepening warm cloud layers and PWATS of
1.6-1.9". Flooding potential should be limited to urban areas
where heavy rain overwhelms local drainage and in areas that
have been repeatedly impacted by heavy rain the last couple
days. In addition to the severe potential, it is going to be
another very hot day across northern Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania. Forecasted highs are expected to climb into the
upper 80s to low 90s, but given dew points in the upper 60s to
low 70s, heat indices will climb into the 90s. Areas along and
west of I71 will see the warmest temperatures with heat indices
climbing up to 100F. In areas where it rains, these should be
stunted a bit, but overall impact for the heat remains elevated
and everyone should use caution when spending long time
outdoors. Due to the convection potential, opted to not issue a
heat advisory for today.

Late this evening into the overnight hours, a more organized line of
showers and storms will push east as a cold front moves across the
area. Given the timing and a less diurnally favorable environment,
not expecting anything severe overnight, but cannot rule out some
locally gusty winds and heavy rainfall again. Showers and storms
will gradually drift southeast throughout Saturday, allowing for
conditions to dry out across the entire area by Saturday evening.
Little relief from the heat will be felt overnight with lows
dropping into the low to mid 70s and dewpoints remaining elevated.
Behind the front on Saturday, dewpoints slowly will drop into the
mid 60s with highs climbing into the low to mid 80s. Overall
temperatures will be `cooler` Saturday, but the mugginess sticks
around.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will linger just south of the area Saturday night,
allowing for a dry Saturday night and cooler temperatures in the low
to mid 60s. These dry conditions should linger into Sunday before
the aforementioned boundary lifts back north as a warm front Sunday
evening into the overnight hours on the leading edge of an upper
level trough. Given the timing of this boundary, expecting it to
take a bit for showers development given the expected strong
inversion over the area. For now, opted to introduce chance PoPs
across the western CWA late Sunday night. As the aforementioned
trough pushes east across the region, increased upper level support
and a cold front will provide support for a more organized line of
convection to move east across the area on Monday through Monday
night. Marginal instability values near 1000 J/kg are possible
Monday, but given the better synoptic support doesn`t arrive until
later, not expecting much in terms of severe weather. There is a Day
4 Marginal ERO for the entire area given the return of high PWAT
values and the potential for storms to train over the same areas.
Will continue to monitor this system for any shifts in timing.

Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s through Monday with the
muggy conditions not expected to go anywhere as dewpoints linger in
the upper 60s to low 70s. Overnight lows will generally be in the
mid to upper 60s, possibly touching the low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Some lingering showers are possible on Tuesday, especially across
the eastern counties as the cold front continues to drift east. High
pressure will build in behind the departing front, allowing for
returns of dry conditions for the remainder of the long term period.
There is a small chance of showers on Thursday as an upper level
trough traverses the region, however given divergence in model
agreement, opted to cap PoP potential to slight chance on Thursday.
The good news is that the high pressure that will push over the area
will originate from over Canada, allowing for a more mild airmass
and the return to more seasonable temperatures to the area. Highs on
Tuesday through Thursday will climb into the low to mid 80s. Lower
dewpoints in the 50s to low 60s will also provide a bit of relief
from the muggy conditions. Overnight lows will drop into the upper
50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
As previously expected, there is a split across the area between
VFR with mid-level clouds or MVFR with some fog where there are
breaks in the cloud cover. Any MVFR should be short-lived this
morning as diurnal heating and some slight mixing will allow for
the fog to dissipate.

There remains high confidence in diurnally driven convection for
Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania, especially for KMFD
to KCLE and east and have some brief IFR TS windows. For
Northwest Ohio, there could be a bit of a cap to allow for TS
development to be later in the day with a cold front and
falling temperatures later in the diurnal cycle. Have continued
the IFR TS window later in the evening. The remnants of these
storms could push to the remaining terminals during night into
Saturday morning, but overall conditions should be VFR. Winds
through the period will be generally southerly, shifting to the
southwest. As the front approaches the area late, winds could
become westerly into Northwest Ohio.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and storms through
Saturday evening. Non-VFR possible in morning fog on Sunday.
Additional non-VFR possible with showers and storms on Monday
and Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front approaching from the northwest will allow for winds
to focus on a southerly direction today, becoming southwest
tonight. There should be enough of a pressure gradient to
prevent a lake breeze from developing and flow should remain
offshore. The front will cross the lake on Saturday and winds
will become westerly, allowing for some 2 ft waves and perhaps
some isolated 3 ft waves to build, but conditions should stay
below the need for any headline and the need for even a moderate
swimming risk isn`t really there. High pressure will return to
the region for Sunday, allowing for light, generally offshore
flow. A lake breeze should form and may disrupt this for the
nearshore waters. The next system will approach for Monday and
Tuesday with southwest flow favored ahead of the cold front on
Monday and westerly flow behind the front on Tuesday. Waves
could again get elevated to 2 to 3 ft on Tuesday with the
westerly flow on Tuesday, but still not too concerned about any
marine headline needs at this time.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04/23
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Sefcovic