Erie, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

101
FXUS61 KCLE 211433
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
933 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A large low pressure system will slowly move across the Great
Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley region today through Friday
bringing unsettled weather to the area. High pressure will
build over the region Sunday with break period of drier weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
930 AM Update...
Much of the forecast remains on track as scattered snow showers
continue to impact the area this morning. Confidence is
increasing in convective snowbands developing late this
afternoon/early evening as the flow shifts to become more west-
northwesterly. Hi-res guidance is very consistent in moderate to
heavy lake effect snow showers impacting near the Cleveland
Metro and east through the snowbelt. General timing appears to
be between 4-7PM EST, which has the potential to impact this
evenings commute. Given the fairly warm ground temperatures,
snow should not immediately stick to surfaces such as roadways,
but once it does slushy, hazardous conditions may occur. Overall
snowfall on the cooler surfaces should remain 4 inches or less
given current model guidance, but will continue to monitor for
any additional QPF and potentially higher snowfall amounts. Stay
tuned for the latest updates on this impactful weather.

Previous Discussion...
Our weather pattern will look and feel a little more like winter
today and tonight. The first snowflakes and light snowfall of
the season is coming to northern Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania. An area of light snow is already arrive across
portions of northwest Ohio and the I-71 corridor this morning.
This is all from a large and strong low pressure system that is
over the Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley region. There is a
strong surface low pressure that is currently centered near
northern part of Lake Michigan this early morning. It is nearly
vertically stacked with a large upper level low that is right
overhead as well. We have cold air advection coming into our
area this morning from a low level flow from the southwest. The
colder air is being pulled down on the backside of this large
low pressure system from Canada and wrapping around underneath
from west-southwest into northern Ohio.

A spoke of mid level energy is spinning around the base of the
large storm system and will move across our area later today this
morning into the afternoon. Air temperatures will be barely at
freezing or a few degrees above 32F this morning and stay mostly
in the 30s to near 40 today. Much colder air aloft with 850 mb
falling to around -9C will help produce areas of snow showers
this morning and throughout the day. With temperatures near the
surface mainly above freezing in the 30s, we may see the precip
as rain showers mixing with or changing over to mostly snow
shower today. During the day snow may come down at a decent or
steady pace but ground temperatures are still relatively warm
It will be very hard to see much in the way of snowfall
accumulations beside some a brief slushy coating before melting.

The next potential weather impact period to keep an eye on will
be this evening, especially after sunset. High-res forecast
model guidance is indicating a potential for a localized uptick
of convectively driven snow showers coming off the lake. The low
level flow will shift from west-southwest to more west-northwest
by this evening. This will bring the lake effect or enhancement
into play for parts of NEOH and NWPA. There may be the potential
for some lake effect snow squalls or heavier burst of snow
convective driven this evening. The forecast model guidance has
been showing the area around the CLE metro and just east into
the snowbelt of NEOH as favorable location for this uptick of
bands of lake effect or heavier burst of snow showers. There is
some uncertainty if this will develop and what locations may be
impacted. But if this does materialized, there could be snowfall
rates reaching 1 inch per hour for a short period of time this
evening as well as variable travel conditions over a short
distance due to the nature of lake effect. This evening into the
overnight will be the better timeframe to see some light
snowfall accumulations with temperatures near freezing and the
lack of daytime sunlight coming through the clouds. During the
evening hours into the overnight, the precip chances will
transition more into lake effect and enhancement favoring the
primary and secondary snowbelt areas of NEOH and NWPA. Any snow
showers across the rest of the area will be light with little
not to no accumulations or impacts. The area around the CLE
metro, especially the southern and eastern areas in the
slightly higher elevations may have a better chance of some
light snowfall accumulations this evening and overnight. That is
also true extending eastward through the snowbelt of NEOH and
NWPA. There could be a localized area that may see 2 to 4 inches
of wet snowfall with most areas seeing 1 to 2 inches on grassy
and elevated surfaces. Untreated roadways and bridges could see
a slushy coating and cause some limited travel impacts along
with variable visibility conditions over a short distance.

Temperatures may actually be the coldest this evening through
midnight but start to slowly rise by sunrise Friday morning. We
will start to lose some of the colder air that was wrapped into
this system and start to see slightly milder air wrapping around
across the eastern Great Lakes into the area by Friday morning.
Temperatures will eventually climb into the 40s on Friday and
that will also start changing any light snow showers back into
rain showers from north to south Friday morning. We will still
have a very good flow coming off of Lake Huron and Lake Erie on
Friday bringing abundant moisture in the form of cold rain
showers. Before this whole system wraps up this weekend, we
could see rainfall totals around 1 inch or a little more for
much of the snowbelt of NEOH and NWPA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Wrap-around and lake-enhanced precipitation will be ongoing from
north-central and northeastern OH into northwestern PA Friday night.
This precip will generally be in the form of steady light to
occasionally moderate rain. Our western counties may see a few
intermittent sprinkles or light showers the first part of Friday
night, though will be on a gradual drying trend into the weekend as
high pressure slowly builds from the southwest. As we head through
Saturday and Saturday night, precipitation will gradually become
more and more confined to far Northeast OH and Northwest PA as our
slow-moving and complex closed-low aloft slowly exits and as high
pressure continues pressing in from the southwest. It is likely that
lake effect showers do not completely shut-off in the primary
snowbelt of far Northeast OH and Northwest PA until late Saturday
night or Sunday morning, though everyone else should see gradual
improvement through the day Saturday. Some peeks of sun are even
possible in our western counties Saturday afternoon, though that
would be rather fleeting if it occurs. Precip through Saturday night
or early Sunday will primarily be in the form of chilly rain, though
a few flakes may mix in in the hills of PA Saturday night.

The pattern (finally) becomes much more zonal and fast-moving
beginning on Sunday. The next shortwave in the flow will eject into
the upper Midwest Sunday into Sunday night. This will spark new low
pressure development over the upper Midwest/Great Lakes and advance
a cold front towards us. While the bulk of this system will impact
us in the long term, some rain showers may begin spreading in from
the west with it Sunday night. 30-40% POPs are in the forecast.

Lows Friday night will generally be in the low to mid 40s, with some
upper 30s possible in PA. Highs Saturday generally in the mid to
upper 40s, perhaps touching 50 towards Findlay. Lows Saturday night
will dip into the low to mid 30s across most of northwestern and
north-central Ohio, with clouds and flow off the lake keeping NE OH
and NW PA in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Highs Sunday either side of
50 with lows Sunday night generally near or a bit warmer than 40,
with the exception of interior PA which will be a bit cooler. It
will remain breezy out of the west-northwest through Saturday,
though after Friday evening gusts should be 30 MPH or less.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A relatively quick-moving low pressure will zip through the Great
Lakes Monday into Monday night, shifting into northern New England
or Quebec on Tuesday. This will drag a cold front through Monday
into Monday evening. Chance to likely (50-70%) POPs for rain showers
in the forecast, with light QPF amounts expected. It will turn
breezy behind the cold front Monday evening into Tuesday. NBM
probabilities for advisory-criteria (46 MPH or higher) gusts with
this system are modest in the 10-30% ballpark across the area, so
think breezy but sub-advisory conditions are most likely unless we
see the low pressure passing to our north trend notably more
intense. Some lake effect is possible in predominantly westerly flow
Tuesday into Tuesday night behind the system, and with the region
getting clipped by a pool of colder air that could mix with some
snow. 850mb temperatures will likely dip to -10C or colder over the
northern Great Lakes and Ontario, though that deeper cold is largely
favored to remain to just our north on current ensembles with -4 to -
8C most favored locally. Given that, we aren`t currently looking at
an impactful snow event off the lake. A ridge is expected to slide
through on Wednesday, leading to briefly quiet weather for the
middle of next week. Temperatures will be on the milder side of
average on Monday and then get knocked back to near or slightly
below normal for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Some bonus "extra long term" this morning...global model ensembles
are in good agreement that a robust "blocking" ridge in the jet
stream over the northern Pacific near/over Alaska will be persistent
this week and likely through roughly the first week of December.
This pattern will significantly increase Arctic influence into North
America, much more so than we`ve seen so far this fall. There`s
relatively strong agreement that a chunk of this air will attempt to
dip into the U.S. to end next week, with potential for cyclogenesis
over the central or eastern U.S. around the end of next week ahead
of the blast of colder air. Regardless of where any low pressure
develops and tracks, colder air will likely spill in behind it next
weekend, with GFS and European ensembles both depicting roughly 50-
50 chances of 850mb temperatures dipping below -10C over the local
area next weekend with much higher confidence just to our north and
northwest. This colder pattern likely then sticks with us through at
least the first week of December, illustrated by the current CPC 8
to 14 day outlook depicting fairly high-confidence in colder than
average temperatures for the period beginning the end of next week,
with a slight tilt towards above-average precipitation in that
period too. While it`s too early to know for sure how effectively
cold air will work into the local area and if we`ll see a more
widespread snow, potential for at least some lake effect snow in the
snowbelt and colder weather for all seems evident if this pattern
plays out as ensembles currently depict starting next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
The main aviation weather message with this TAF update will be
conditions will become more impactful with ceilings lowering and
rain/snow showers causing reduced visibility later this morning
and throughout the rest of the day. We are starting off with
mostly VFR conditions as of 06z this early morning. Ceilings
will lower to MVFR and at times low end MVFR later this morning
with a wave of rain/snow showers that will move in by 12z. There
are TEMPO groups highlighting a 4 hour window between roughly 10z
and 16z at each TAF site to mention the potential of 3sm to 5sm
visibility reductions with the light to moderate rain showers
mixing with and eventually changing to mostly snow showers later
this morning and lingering through the rest of the day into this
evening. We have general ceilings lowering to 2500 feet later
today but mention some time periods later this morning where
it could drop to 1500 feet with bands of precipitation moving
across the area. We have the mention of scattered light snow
showers with 6sm through the afternoon and evening in all TAFs.
But there is a PROB30 group between 23z and 03z this evening
where we there could be another uptick of heavier lake effect snow
showers that could bring down ceilings and visibilities at
local airports. Winds will be generally from the west-southwest
this morning 8 to 12 knots with a few isolated gusts up to 20
knots. That gust potential will mainly be for ERI through the
early morning. Winds will become more westerly later in the TAF
period between 5 and 10 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR conditions will be possible Friday through
Saturday in scattered lake effect rain showers, possibly mixed
with snow showers at times early on Friday. Gusty winds from
the north and northwest up to 35 knots will also be possible
Friday through Saturday, especially areas closer to the
lakeshore as as well NEOH and NWPA.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest flow is gradually relaxing on the lake this morning.
Generally expect west-southwest flow of 10-20 knots over the lake
through the day today. Low water levels across the western basin are
beginning to improve early this morning, with the Low Water Advisory
expected to be allowed to expire by 12z. Small Craft Advisories west
of Vermilion and east of Conneaut expire at 15z...off of Ashtabula
County will expire at 18z. There should be at least a 6-12 hour
break in conditions in all of these zones after the current
headlines expire due to the relatively lighter southwest winds
expected today. Winds over the central basin will remain slightly
more elevated and waves will have a harder time coming down there
today, so the advisory between Vermilion and Geneva-On-The-Lake will
continue through today and into tonight.

Winds will gradually turn more northwesterly into this evening at 10-
20 knots. Winds will then markedly increase out of the north-
northwest late tonight into Friday morning across the entire lake,
with a solid period of 20-30 knot winds expected through Friday
afternoon before easing a bit into Friday night. Any zones that have
a break in Small Craft Advisories at some point today into this
evening will need new ones beginning tonight once winds shift
onshore and begin increasing. The strongest winds are expected to be
between Reno Beach and Geneva-On-The-Lake, with a solid period of
sustained 30 knot winds and gusts to 40 knots expected from Friday
morning through Friday evening. Most hi-res models have winds
flirting with and perhaps touching sustained gale-force for a 12-15
hour period. NBM probabilities for reaching a sustained gale at some
point during the 24 hour period ending at 1 AM Saturday are rather
respectable over the central basin between the Islands and Conneaut,
generally 40-80%, highest right off of Cleveland. While confidence
in sustained winds exceeding 34 knots on a widespread/persistent
basis isn`t very high, there is high confidence that it will be
flirting with it for a 12-15 hour window on Friday and potentially
briefly reaching it at times. With a northwest wind this will build
6 to 12 foot waves in most of the Ohio waters east of the Islands.
Given all of this, elected for a Gale Watch from 4 AM to 10 PM
Friday between Reno Beach and Geneva-On-The-Lake. Regardless of
whether or not this watch is eventually upgraded to a warning, very
rough conditions necessitating at least a high-end Small Craft
Advisory are expected within the watch area.

Winds will gradually back more westerly into Saturday and
southwesterly into Sunday, with speeds of 15-25 knots continuing on
Saturday and subsiding to 10-20 knots on Sunday. Small Craft
Advisories will likely continue through at least Saturday east of
The Islands and may linger into Sunday towards PA and NY. The
western basin will probably see any headlines come down by Saturday.
Once the headlines are off the board by the end of this weekend, the
next system to monitor will be a cold front crossing the lake Monday
afternoon and evening with a period of brisk westerly flow behind it
into Tuesday. This will likely prompt Small Craft Advisories.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from late tonight through Friday evening for
     LEZ143>147-163>167.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for LEZ145>147.
 Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ148.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Griffin
NEAR TERM...Campbell/Griffin
SHORT TERM...Sullivan
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...Griffin
MARINE...Sullivan