Erie, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

351
FXUS61 KCLE 040610
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
210 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moving northeast through the Great Lakes on
Wednesday will slowly drag a cold front east across the local
area through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Upper level ridge and surface high pressure continue to build east
over the Mid-Atlantic as a broad upper level trough approaches the
eastern Great Lakes from the west. Warm overnight lows tonight
settle in the low 60s east of I-71 and upper 60s to low 70s west of
I-71. By Wednesday, the slow moving upper level trough and
accompanying surface cold front will approach western zones.
Any lingering Canadian wildfire smoke aloft should diminish as
the front approaches on Wednesday. High temperatures Wednesday
will rise into the mid 80s with upper 50/lower 60 degree
dewpoints. This will support a few hundred Joules of MLCAPE
across the region in addition to 20-30 knots of deep layer
shear. SPC SWODY2 includes a portion of the forecast area,
mainly along and west of I-71, in a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5)
for severe weather. Overall forcing remains weak ahead of the
surface cold front, but can`t rule out an isolated strong to
marginally severe thunderstorm late Wednesday afternoon/early
evening. Additionally, a warm and moist environment ahead of the
slow moving front with bulk layer shear parallel to the cold
front will support heavy rainfall, training storms, and isolated
flash flooding beginning Wednesday and continuing into the
short term period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The main message for the short term period will be a stalled front
stalled out across the area with scattered rain chances. A cold
front will slowly slide across the area on Thursday. This frontal
boundary will eventually become parallel to the mid level steering
flow on Thursday into Friday. POPs will be likely to categorical on
Thursday as the front moves through. Some thunderstorms will be
possible but organized convection is not anticipated at this time.
The front will stall out Thursday night near or south of the Highway
30 corridor. We will keep chance POPs around Thursday night. A
shortwave will move from the Central Plains into the Upper Ohio
Valley late on Friday. This mid level wave will develop a weak area
of low pressure along the stalled front and help pull it northward
into the area Friday evening. POPs will increase once again Friday
afternoon into the evening with this wave of low pressure. Given the
abundant low level moisture and stalled front in the area,
localized heavy rainfall may be possible. High temperatures both
days will be in the middle to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper level trough will dig across the Great Lakes region on
Saturday with a slightly cooler weather pattern. A few rain showers
will be possible early on Saturday with variable clouds throughout
the day. High temperatures on Saturday will be in the lower to
middle 70s. Sunday will be the pick day of the weekend with high
pressure in control and highs in the middle to upper 70s. The next
upper level trough will dig down across the Great Lakes region on
Monday with the next chance of rain and slightly cooler weather.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
VFR conditions will continue through at least 21Z today. Dry
conditions are expected through the daytime hours ahead of a
slow moving frontal boundary that will move into NW Ohio this
evening. Ahead of the boundary, a 40-45 knot low level jet has
developed across NW and North Central Ohio and have a mention of
low level wind sheer at TOL/FDY/CLE/MFD until about 13Z. As
mixing heights increase on Wednesday morning, expect to see the
wind sheer decrease with surface winds gusting to around 25
knots with a few gusts as high as 30 knots at FDY. Showers and
thunderstorms could potentially reach TOL towards 23Z and FDY
after 02Z as moisture ramps up along and ahead of the front. At
this time brought some showers with a mention of thunder in the
vicinity to TOL and will need to refine timing as confidence
increases today. Ceilings will likely start off VFR even as rain
begins but IFR with heavy showers are possible with any
thunderstorms. Thunderstorms this evening could also cause a few
stronger wind gusts of 40+ knots but confidence is low in that
occurrence. Ceilings will trend towards MVFR behind the front
but this is only expected to reach TOL during this cycle.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in periodic scattered showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday night through Friday night. Non-VFR may
return in scattered showers and thunderstorms on Sunday
afternoon and evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Overall conditions on Lake Erie will be fair to good with no
headlines expected through Friday. Southerly flow 10 to 20 knots
will continue tonight and Wednesday with 1 to 3 feet waves. The
higher waves will be out in the open water with the offshore flow. A
slow moving cold front will slide across the lake Wednesday night.
Winds will become variable with the frontal passage and eventually a
light northerly flow 5 to 10 knots on Thursday. The light
northeasterly flow 5 to 10 knots will continue Thursday night into
Friday. A wave of low pressure will move across the lake Friday
night with variable or shifting winds around 10 knots. Westerly
winds will return on Saturday 10 to 15 knots and 1 to 3 feet wave.
The next potential for SCA may be on Saturday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...13
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...10
MARINE...77