Bethel Park, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

003
FXUS61 KPBZ 040700
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
300 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and warmer weather is expected today under high pressure.
Shower and thunderstorm chances return Thursday with an
approaching cold front. The front is then expected to drift
southward across the region through Saturday, keeping unsettled
weather across the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and warm today
---------------------------------------------------------------

Height rises will continue today as a ridge strengthens across
the Eastern CONUS. 500 mb heights are expected to range from
587-589 decameters across the Upper Ohio Valley region, with 850
mb temps progged to peak from 16-18 deg C. This should result in
high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s for much of the area,
with a few of the warmer locations near 90. Dew points are also
expected to increase some from yesterday, though heat indices
are progged to remain near the air temperature.

Recent RAP and HRRR model smoke fields indicate some haze/smoke
aloft will be present today, though concentrations are expected
to be less than yesterday.

A diurnal cumulus cloud layer is also expected to develop as
temperatures warm to convective thresholds, though a strong mid
level cap in place should preclude any shower activity from
developing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Showers/thunderstorms return Thursday, a few could be severe
- Locally heavy rain also possible Thursday and Friday
----------------------------------------------------------------

Dry weather will continue tonight as the ridge begins to move
eastward. A surface cold front is then expected to approach the
region on Thursday. An initial shortwave trough will likely add
support for showers/storm development especially Thursday
afternoon as the front sinks slowly southward. Capping should
initially limit storm development, though this cap should erode
as the front approaches.

Surface based CAPE is expected to range from 1500-2000 j/kg by
mid to late afternoon, with relatively weak shear. Dry mid
level air is expected to be in place, enhancing DCAPE values,
and resulting in a damaging wind potential with any storms that
are able to become organized. With the relatively weak flow
aloft, there is a potential for slower moving or training
storms, which could result in a heavy rainfall potential. The
thunderstorm intensity should diminish Thursday evening with the
loss of daytime heating, though some limited elevated
instability will remain.

The front is expected to be stalled across central OH into
western PA Thursday night and Friday with the flow aloft
parallel to it. A few showers and thunderstorms will continue
Thursday night with this front in place. Expect shower/storm
coverage to increase Friday with building diurnal instability,
though the potential for severe storms is expected to be lower
than Thursday with less available instability.

A shortwave is expected to track east toward the Upper Ohio
Valley region Friday night into early Saturday, with another
round of showers/storms expected. Locally heavy rainfall will
again be possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Shower and thunderstorm chances continue Saturday
- Mainly dry Sunday
- Unsettled weather early next week
-------------------------------------------------------------------

The passing shortwave should result in a wind shift to the west
aloft, slowly driving the surface front out of the region by
Saturday evening. Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue
during the day Saturday as the front completes its passage.
Sunday should be mainly dry as weak surface high pressure
briefly builds across the region.

A deepening trough is progged to advance from the Midwest to the
Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley region early next week. Shower
and thunderstorm chances are expected to increase again with the
approach and passage of this trough.

Temperatures are expected to average near seasonable levels
through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR will continue with high pressure through the TAF period.
Main change with the 06z package was to remove 6SM HZ from all
sites. Latest guidance indicates near-surface smoke density will
be less Wednesday than on Tuesday. Little to no vis restrictions
were observed on Tuesday, so that is likely to remain the case
on Wednesday. High level smoke/haze will continue.

Wind remains generally light and southwesterly through the
period. The exception is possible gusts to 20kt at FKL with
daytime mixing.

Outlook...
The next potential impact period will be on Thursday
when shower and thunderstorm chances increase (and restrictions
mainly tied to convection) as a series of shortwaves cross over
the ridge axis.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WM
NEAR TERM...WM
SHORT TERM...WM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...Rackley/88