Bethel Park, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

618
FXUS61 KPBZ 170845
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
445 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions and a warming trend is expected through Friday.
Shower and thunderstorm chances return this weekend.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Cold start will recover to near normal temperatures with dry
  conditions.
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Clear skies and light wind has allowed for efficient radiational
cooling overnight, with recent observations showing the vast
majority of the forecast area at or below freezing. The Frost
Advisory remains in effect for areas where the growing season
has begun (most areas near and south of I-70) until 9 AM this
morning. Ridging will maintain dry conditions today. Increasing
thickness and warm advection will push temperatures up to near
normal after a relatively cool start.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Temperatures pop to above normal Friday
- Dry conditions continue.

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Warm advection and limited cloud coverage will continue the
warming trend, with highs 10 to 15 degrees above average on
Friday. NBM 25th percentile cloud cover (a reasonable clearer
solution) has skies clear across much of the region and NBM 75th
percentile cloud cover (a reasonable cloudier solution) still
has skies largely less than 50% cloud cover, with the clearest
areas south of I-70. NBM probabilities and CIPS analogs show the
chance of 80F or greater largely above 60% south of I-70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Showers and possible thunderstorms return Saturday
- Periodic shower chances continue through early next week
- Above average temperatures through much of the period
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Ensembles continue to indicate a frontal boundary dropping south
across the region on Saturday. SPC currently has a marginal
outlook for day 3 PGH and south with the front potentially crossing
the region during peak diurnal heating, allowing for more
potent storm production along and ahead of it. Uncertainty in
exact placement still exists. Latest joint probabilities of
MUcape/bulk shear in the highlighted area is around 75% for
250j/kg and 30kts, and 25% for 50j/kg and 30kts respectively.
Most ensembles favor upper ridging across the area on the day
Sunday pushing our surface boundary to the south bringing cooler
conditions Sunday (but still above normal). Heading into next
week, clustered ensembles seem to indicate a flatter, more
progressive but active pattern with near-daily chances to see
measurable rain as upper-level waves cross the region.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR is expected through the TAF period as high pressure slides
east across the region. Calm wind tonight will pick up from the
SSW on Thursday at around 5kt. Increasing high level clouds are
expected Thursday night ahead of an approaching warm front. Some
LLWS potential is also possible late with an approaching low
level jet.

Outlook...
VFR and gusty SSW winds are expected Friday after the passage of
a warm front. Restriction potential, along with increasing
shower and thunderstorm chances, are expected late Friday night
and Saturday as a slow moving cold front approaches.
Restrictions and showers are still possible Sunday as the front
sinks slowly south, though more restrictions and widespread
showers/tstms are likely Monday with another crossing cold
front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ029-031-075.
OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ057>059-068-
     069.
WV...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ003-004-012-
     021-509>511.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...88
SHORT TERM...88/AK
LONG TERM...88/AK
AVIATION...WM