Klamath Falls, Oregon 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

016
FXUS66 KMFR 111804
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1004 AM PST Wed Dec 11 2024

.DISCUSSION...The main change to the forecast for today was to
keep the best chance for precipitation off shore today. Radar is
showing light returns along the coast and into Douglas County, but
there has been o reports of measureable precipitation and suspect
the returns are aloft and not reaching the ground. The front
itself is still offshore and it`s not expected to reach the coast
until late this afternoon which is when the best chance of
precipitation will be. Inland it will be dry except for the
immediate coast where precipitation will arrive later in the
afternoon.

The front will reach the coast early this evening, then move
inland tonight. It will be windy in the south end of the Rogue
Valley and Shasta Valley this evening and tonight and a wind
advisory remains in effect for these areas. The wind in the Rogue
Valley will also to keep precipitation at bay, meaning we could
get little to no precipitation tonight which some of the high res
models are suggesting.

A stronger storm could impact portions of the area Saturday, but a
preliminary look at some of the new data suggest this storm does
not look as impactful as it did in the past. Right now the main
concern is the potential for a good amount of snow in and around
the Mount Shasta Area, and along highway 89 east of I-5. The wind
component at the coast and inland appears to be less of a concern,
but we`ll wait for more data to come in and dig into this further
this morning. -Petrucelli


&&

.AVIATION...11/18Z TAFS...VFR prevails at the moment across the
area with the exception of the marine waters where an offshore front
is bringing lowering ceilings (to MVFR) as precipitation pushes
eastward. Areas of LIFR low clouds still exist in some west side
valleys (including in the Umpqua Basin, Grants Pass area and the
Illinois Valley), but these should break up in the next couple of
hours. The front will move in this afternoon bringing rain and lower
conditions to the coast, spreading inland tonight. Ceilings could
drop to MVFR toward or after 22z as rain moves into North Bend, then
Roseburg around or after 05z. Southeast winds will develop in the
Shasta and southern portion of the Rogue Valley this evening and
this will keep ceilings higher at Medford, but there is a risk of
low-level shear at the airport during the night. As the front shifts
inland, lower ceilings with widespread MVFR/IFR and terrain
obscurations are expected overnight into Thursday morning. These
conditions also push over to the East Side and Klamath Falls then.
Precip becomes more showery/ends for most areas Thursday morning and
conditions should improve by afternoon. -Spilde


&&

.MARINE...Updated 900 AM PST Wednesday, December 11, 2024...South
winds increase this morning as a front moves in from the west.
Models and guidance continue to indicate a coastal jet developing
just offshore of Cape Blanco as frontal winds are squeezed against
the coast. This will build steep to very steep seas in all waters
as winds approach gale force and persist through Wednesday night.
Rather than getting too specific with the exact areas of
gales/hazardous seas, all areas will be under a gale warning to
address the large area of hazardous conditions expected. Wind
gusts to 40 kt are expected and seas could be 10-13 ft at just 7
or 8 seconds. Low pressure will then move onshore Thursday. Winds
shift to northwest with seas transitioning to longer period swell.
Swell dominated seas will be steep Thursday and Thursday night.
Models have trended higher with this swell and indicate some
locally very steep seas are possible. A small craft advisory is in
place for these steep seas and will monitor model trends and the
potential of very steep seas.

Another strong low pressure system is forecast to approach the area
Friday. Models have trended faster on this low moving into the
region and there remains uncertainty on the exact details on timing
and just how strong this storm will be. The worst conditions could
begin late Friday morning into Friday afternoon then continue into
Friday night with a period of very strong winds and very steep seas.
Ensemble model probabilities indicate a 40-70% of wind gusts of 50kt
or greater over the marine waters, which would build seas to near or
even perhaps greater than 20 ft. We`ll continue to monitor and
adjust forecasts accordingly. -CC


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM PST Thursday for
     ORZ026.

     Beach Hazards Statement until 10 AM PST this morning for ORZ021-
     022.

CA...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM PST Thursday for
     CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning until 4 AM PST Thursday for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Thursday to 4 AM PST Friday for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$