Sand Springs, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

215
FXUS64 KTSA 241128
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
528 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 524 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

 - Abnormally warm with southerly wind gusts 30+ mph expected
   today.

 - Cold front arrives late tonight into Monday, with unseasonably
   cool temperatures through Tuesday.

 - Another cold front arrives Wednesday with much colder
   temperatures for Thanksgiving Day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 240 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

A robust low-level jet has developed and parked itself over
eastern OK and northwest AR early this morning in response to lee
troughing occurring along the Rockies. VAD wind profile from KINX
indicates winds have increased between 50-60 kts at 2-3 kft out
of the southwest. Surface observations around the region show
winds are already gusting around 20 mph, locally higher, out of
the south.

Southerly winds will continue to increase as the morning
progresses, especially after sunrise when more mixing occurs. Wind
speeds/gusts will peak late this morning and through the early
afternoon hours, as a deepening surface low slides across the
Central Plains, before gradually subsiding mid-late afternoon.
Model guidance shows low-level clouds developing and increasing
after sunrise this morning, which may damper full wind gust
potential. Nevertheless, wind gusts between 30 and 40 mph are
likely across much of eastern OK and northwest AR. The more common
wind gusts should remain below Wind Advisory thresholds, so will
opt not to issue a Wind Advisory at this time. However, occasional
gusts of 40+ mph cannot be ruled out at a few locations,
especially in the higher terrain areas.

Unseasonably warm temperatures are on tap again today across the
forecast area. Scattered to broken low-level cloud cover may keep
temperatures from reaching their full potential, but widespread
highs in the low-mid 70s are still expected to be reached this
afternoon.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 240 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

A dry cold front remains on track to move through the forecast
area overnight tonight and into Monday morning. Latest hi-res
model data show the cold front entering northeast OK sometime
around midnight, give/take an hour, exiting southeast of the area
by noon Monday. In the fronts wake, northerly winds will become
breezy/gusty, with gusts 30-35 mph through much of the afternoon
Monday. Temperatures behind the front will drop quickly into the
mid-upper 40s Monday morning (mainly northeast OK and far
northwest AR), but temperatures should bounce back into the low-
mid 50s Monday afternoon before quickly falling back into the 40s
by sundown Monday evening.

Unseasonably cool temperatures and dry weather will persist
through Tuesday, with a possible freeze for locations north of
I-40 Tuesday morning. A quick warm-up will occur by Tuesday
evening/night and into Wednesday as southerly winds make a return.
The warm-up is expected to be short-lived as another quick-moving
cold front is forecast to move through the region Wednesday
afternoon/evening. This front will bring in a low rain chance
(10-20%), with light accumulations, across northeast OK and far
northwest AR late Wednesday night into Thanksgiving morning. Most
other locations will remain dry. The airmass behind Wednesdays
cold front will be very chilly, with daytime highs in the 40s and
lower 50s Thanksgiving Day and again on Friday and overnight lows
in 20s to lower 30s Thanksgiving night and Friday night.
Unseasonably cool temperatures will extend into next weekend as
well.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 524 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period,
although a brief period of MVFR ceilings will be possible this
morning at least at KMLC. South winds will gust over 25 knots at
times today, with winds shifting to the north at the northeast
Oklahoma sites near or after midnight tonight following the
passage of a cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  45  53  29 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   75  56  64  35 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   75  49  61  32 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   75  41  53  25 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   72  47  60  26 /   0   0  10   0
BYV   69  51  62  30 /   0   0  10   0
MKO   73  48  59  30 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   71  44  52  27 /   0  10   0   0
F10   74  46  58  30 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   75  57  66  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...05