Ponca City, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

798
FXUS64 KOUN 271711
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1211 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1209 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

- Daily chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms
  through next week, with highest chances Monday and Tuesday.

- Hot and humid conditions continue, with heat indices near 100
  degrees most afternoons.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Ample moisture and at least weak elevated instability have allowed
for showers and thunderstorms to persist early this morning, so
far most numerous across southwest Oklahoma and western north
Texas. Expect this activity to continue through the morning as it
moves slowly eastward, aided by several MCV`s meandering across
the area. We may see a relative lull in convective
coverage/intensity later this morning before a reignition of
convection this afternoon with daytime heating and
destabilization. Overall severe risk is low given fairly
unorganized nature of convection, but as we saw yesterday can`t
rule out isolated instances of damaging wind gusts due to wet
microbursts. Activity will likely continue into tonight, though
coverage is a bit uncertain and will likely depend on how
convection evolves today and any remnant MCV`s in the area.

Ware

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

The synoptic pattern will not change much as we head into the
weekend with a weakened subtropical ridge centered to our south
and abundant moisture remaining in place. This will lead to
continued chances for at least isolated shower/storm activity
Saturday and Sunday across most of the area. Otherwise, hot and
humid conditions will persist with heat index values near 100
degrees in many spots each afternoon in areas that do not see
extensive rain/cloud coverage.

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

The subtropical ridge is forecast to retreat to the southwestern
US early next week, placing our area in weak northwest flow
aloft. This will allow for a weak front to push southward into the
area which will serve as a focus for more widespread convective
coverage Monday into Tuesday. Severe risk will continue to be
generally low owing to weak wind shear, but with plenty of
instability and a front in the area, Monday may offer a
relatively greater risk for a few strong to severe storms compared
to the days preceding it. At least isolated rain/storm chances
then look to continue through much of next week for at least parts
of the area, with highs generally remaining in the low 90s.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Scattered storms will be possible again today, primarily during
the afternoon then waning through the evening. Gusty and erratic
winds will be possible near thunderstorms. Otherwise, outside of
convection, winds should remain light and southerly.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  73  92  73  93 /  20  20  20  10
Hobart OK         71  96  72  96 /  20  20  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  75  95  76  97 /  10  10  10  10
Gage OK           69  93  70  94 /  20  10  20  10
Ponca City OK     71  93  72  93 /  40  20  30  20
Durant OK         74  93  74  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...14