McAlester, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

211
FXUS64 KTSA 081132
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
632 AM CDT Thu May 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu May 8 2025

  - Areas of dense fog through early morning.

  - Spotty shower and storm chances today and Friday.

  - Pleasant weekend with low chance of showers/storms across
    mainly western Arkansas Monday. Warming trend next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Friday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu May 8 2025

Low clouds and areas of fog have developed in wake up the passing
upper low. Areas of visibilities below one half mile appear likely
to persist through early morning warranting an advisory, which may
be expanded pending observations. Otherwise, expect scattered
showers and storms to develop this afternoon as troughing aloft
remains over the region with the highest coverage expected north
of Interstate 40. Any storms that do develop are expected to be
weaker than observed yesterday, however locally gusty winds could
occur with any stronger storms. Coverage will wane after sunset.
Similar pattern expected on Friday though precip coverage will
focus south of Intercede 40 as the upper trough axis slowly
shifts southward.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu May 8 2025

Pleasant weekend expected as sfc high pressure extends across the
region with an evolving upper low developing near the Gulf Coast.
This feature will then lift northward on Monday with the western
periphery of the precip shield possibly spreading isolated to
scattered showers into western AR and maybe far eastern OK.

Thereafter, a more typical mid May pattern develops with southerly
winds strengthening and temperatures warming into mid to upper 80s
for mid to late week. Dewpoints are also likely to become
noticeably higher than recent days producing warm muggy afternoon
conditions. Thunderstorm chances for mid to late week continue to
appear low, but the evolving weather pattern of prevailing strong
southwesterly flow aloft atop an unstable warm sector is fickle
and can change quickly. One feature of note is a potential weak
front moving into the region around Thursday and this boundary may
then stall and lift northward while remaining in vicinity. This
scenario is one to watch with later forecasts. Eventually the
persistent troughing through the southwestern CONUS is likely to
produce one or more days of severe weather potential across the
Plains which is in line with mid May climatology.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Thu May 8 2025

Low stratus and dense fog have developed across eastern OK and
northwest AR this morning. LIFR and IFR cigs and vsbys will
persist over the next couple of hours before improvements begin.
A gradual improvement to VFR is expected late this morning or
early this afternoon, but AR terminals, specifically XNA, ROG, and
FYV, may hold onto MVFR cigs through mid-afternoon before VFR
prevails. Forecast confidence is low-medium on timing. Isolated to
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms may develop again this
afternoon, best chances occurring over the NE OK and far NW AR
terminals. Have included PROB30 groups to show this. Cigs may
return late tonight and through the overnight hours at the AR
terminals, but low confidence on timing and duration. Winds are
expected to be light, less than 10 knots, out of the north through
the period.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  53  75  49 /  20  10   0   0
FSM   76  57  77  52 /  20  20  20   0
MLC   73  55  76  50 /  10   0  20   0
BVO   72  50  75  45 /  30  10   0   0
FYV   71  52  73  45 /  40  20  10   0
BYV   70  54  72  46 /  60  20  10   0
MKO   71  53  75  49 /  20  20  10   0
MIO   71  53  73  45 /  50  10   0   0
F10   72  54  75  49 /  20  10  10   0
HHW   73  56  75  54 /   0   0  30   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for OKZ057-058-
     062-063-068-069-072-074-076.

AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ARZ001-002-
     010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...67