McAlester, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

444
FXUS64 KTSA 071721
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1221 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 853 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

  - Relative lull in storm chances today and tonight. Another
    storm complex Sunday evening into overnight hours.

  - Flash and main-stem river flooding threat will be widespread
    generally along and north of Interstate 40.

  - Brief dry period through mid week with below average
    temperatures for this time of year. Rain chances returns later
    in the work week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 853 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Severe MCS has exited to the east, with some remaining stratiform
precip to exit later this morning. A west to east band of elevated
storms over western OK atop the cold pool from the MCS is expected
to gradually fade with time today. A quick update was made to the
forecast to trend PoPs lower and to drop thunder probs to slight
chance. Will evaluate data and make further updates to the
forecast for this afternoon.

Lacy

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through mid afternoon)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Storms steadily expanding in coverage across NE OK in advance of
organized bowing MCS quickly moving across north central OK. The
severe threat will quickly increase this morning both with the
ongoing scattered storms and certainly with the advancing bow. 00z
KOUN sounding sampled the corridor of strong elevated instability
and effective shear profiles support high likelihood of organized
severe weather with the passing MCS which is timed to clear
western AR by mid morning. Flooding will quickly worsen with the
additional heavy rains and rises should be anticipated on area
main stem rivers.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Late afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

The remnant outflow boundary may focus a few storms later today
into the evening across SE OK but coverage is likely to be low. A
relative lull in storm chances in expected from late afternoon
through tonight into the day Sunday.

Troughing deepens through the central CONUS and drives a cold
front through the area Sunday night into Monday. Another storm
complex is likely during this time frame with highest chances
across SE OK and points west and southward, however there remains
uncertainty in the placement of this complex and higher weather
impacts remain possible pending the exact track.

A few drier and cooler days are likely for early next week before
a weak upper low drifts across the Southern Plains mid to late
week. This feature has been consistent in guidance and precip
chances have trended upward in the Wed - Thurs time frame
as the upper low passes.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

VFR conditions will prevail for much of the forecast. The latest
short-term guidance indicates that the main exception will be the
potential for fog across portions of NE OK and NW AR toward
daybreak Sunday morning. Vsbys could drop to IFR at times. In
addition, there is a small chance for storms this evening down
near the Red River and close enough to maintain the prob30 mention
in the going forecast for KMLC.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  89  65  84 /   0  10  40  20
FSM   68  92  69  86 /  30   0  40  40
MLC   68  89  67  84 /  40  10  60  40
BVO   61  88  62  84 /   0  10  40  10
FYV   63  88  64  83 /  20   0  30  30
BYV   62  87  64  82 /  10   0  30  20
MKO   65  88  66  82 /  20  10  40  30
MIO   62  87  63  82 /   0  10  40  10
F10   65  89  65  82 /  20  10  50  30
HHW   70  89  67  82 /  40  10  70  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...30