Guymon, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

378
FXUS64 KAMA 211718
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1118 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1118 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Another nice day is in store for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles! The forecast remains largely unchanged with only minor
adjustments made. Temperatures late this morning have warmed up
into the upper 40s to lower 50s and highs are expected to top out
in the lower 60s south to mid 50s north. Light winds under 10 mph
are very likely the rest of today along with clear skies.

Muscha

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 312 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

- Mild weather conditions with near to above average high
  temperatures are forecast through Sunday.

- A cold front looks to cool temperatures down to potentially
  below average late this weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 312 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Another chilly morning with temperatures around or below freezing
along and north of highway 60, with mid 30s to the south and east
of the highway. Gradual high pressure will start to build over
the area starting today. This will transition our temperatures a
bit warmer each day, with today`s highs in the upper 50s to mid
60s. Winds will be light and variable today and tonight. This will
allow another night of strong radiational cooling. Similar
overnight lows are expected tonight, but may be a few degrees
warmer than we ended up with this morning`s lows. With the ridge
more in place on Friday, we can expect highs to creep up a bit
more, and widespread 60s are expected. The Palo Duro Canyon area
may get close to 70 for a high on Friday, and limited cloud cover
should make for a nice above average day. And Friday night`s lows
will be following the same trend. Strong radiational cooling again
with overnight lows being a degree or two warmer than Thursday
morning.

Weber

.LONG TERM ...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

High pressure will continue to keep temperatures above normal
Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will most likely be the warmest
on Saturday, but Sunday could still be quite mild, we`re still
keeping an eye on the wind shift and frontal timing. It does look
as though a northerly wind shift will be in place early on Sunday
for areas north of I-40. So highs in the north may struggle to
break 60, while the south will likely see upper 60s to lower 70s.
We do have an outlier model that hint`s at a slow front arrival,
but when it arrives it will surge through quickly. That would
support possible highs in the south to approach 80. Right now that
confidence is about 10%, but this model has been consistent for
several days, that this front will arrive later, but surge faster.
Backing up to Sunday morning is another interesting thing to
note. We`re expecting a surface low to the west to keep winds up
in the 15-20 mph range overnight. This would support good mixing
and keep the overnight lows up near 60, and we certainly have the
potential for record warmest lows to be set in Amarillo and
Dalhart for Sunday morning.

Monday onward, the cold front is expected to move through, but
again, we still have a wide range of models with the strength of
the front and possible warm southwest flow to return, an bring
highs back into the 60s on Tuesday. Again, there`s a large
disagreement with warmer solutions getting close to 70 on
Tuesday, and colder solutions barely getting above 50 for a high.
This discrepancy will continue to spill over to Wednesday, with
again some higher end models suggesting we get to 70, and the cold
solutions suggesting 40s to near 50. It all comes down to if we
remain under the cooler northwest flow regime suppressing the
warmer air to the south, or if we can get another ridge to build
and allow for warmer air to return. All in all, it looks like very
limited chances at precipitation in the extended, and high
uncertainty on the temperatures Monday through Wednesday.

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

High pressure will continue to keep temperatures above normal
Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will most likely be the warmest
on Saturday, but Sunday could still be quite mild, we`re still
keeping an eye on the wind shift and frontal timing. It does look
as though a northerly wind shift will be in place early on Sunday
for areas north of I-40. So highs in the north may struggle to
break 60, while the south will likely see upper 60s to lower 70s.
We do have an outlier model that hint`s at a slow front arrival,
but when it arrives it will surge through quickly. That would
support possible highs in the south to approach 80. Right now that
confidence is about 10%, but this model has been consistent for
several days, that this front will arrive later, but surge faster.
Backing up to Sunday morning is another interesting thing to
note. We`re expecting a surface low to the west to keep winds up
in the 15-20 mph range overnight. This would support good mixing
and keep the overnight lows up near 60, and we certainly have the
potential for record warmest lows to be set in Amarillo and
Dalhart for Sunday morning.

Monday onward, the cold front is expected to move through, but
again, we still have a wide range of models with the strength of
the front and possible warm southwest flow to return, an bring
highs back into the 60s on Tuesday. Again, there`s a large
disagreement with warmer solutions getting close to 70 on
Tuesday, and colder solutions barely getting above 50 for a high.
This discrepancy will continue to spill over to Wednesday, with
again some higher end models suggesting we get to 70, and the cold
solutions suggesting 40s to near 50. It all comes down to if we
remain under the cooler northwest flow regime suppressing the
warmer air to the south, or if we can get another ridge to build
and allow for warmer air to return. All in all, it looks like very
limited chances at precipitation in the extended, and high
uncertainty on the temperatures Monday through Wednesday.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1118 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

VFR conditions will continue with this TAF issuance. Light winds
under 10 kts are very likely with clear skies.

Muscha

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                61  33  64  34 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  54  29  62  31 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              56  28  61  29 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  60  32  66  33 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              59  30  62  30 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  60  31  64  33 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               59  34  61  35 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 58  27  62  27 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  55  26  61  27 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                62  31  65  33 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                56  32  62  35 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   58  34  62  36 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                59  34  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              59  33  61  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...05