Glenpool, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

881
FXUS64 KTSA 180201
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
901 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 128 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

  - Warm and windy through Friday afternoon.

  - A more active weather pattern returns Friday evening into the weekend
    with multiple rounds of strong to severe storms and heavy
    rain expected. The heavy rains may lead to some flooding,
    including river flooding.

  - Cooler and drier weather returns early next week, but another
    storm cycle begins midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 901 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Gusty southerly winds continue this evening and overnight, though
speeds will drop somewhat from the peak seen this afternoon. With
the breezy conditions and increasing moisture throughout the
region, expect overnight lows to remain quite warm, bottoming out
in the upper 60s to lower 70s. An otherwise quiet night is in
store. Raised low temperatures a couple degrees for the update
this evening, but the rest of the forecast is in good shape
through the overnight period.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

A deep trough will gradually close off to the west of the area
maintaining strong southwest flow aloft through Saturday.
Meanwhile, warm and moist advection continues in the lower
atmosphere due an enhanced low level jet. This will continue to
result in mild and breezy conditions into the day Friday. There
are hints in CAM guidance of a few elevated showers or weak
thunderstorms during the late morning and afternoon hours Friday.
The lower levels will be dry enough that any rainfall should
result in just sprinkles or minimal accumulation. By Friday
evening the cold front will begin to push into northeast OK.
Strong instability and ample wind shear will allow for strong to
severe thunderstorms to develop. The setup will allow for all
severe modes, but most likely damaging winds and large hail will
be the dominant threats. Multiple rounds of storms may occur
across northeast OK during the evening to early overnight hours.

Storm coverage will spread south as the cold front moves south
Saturday morning. Behind the cold front some elevated instability
will persist, good enough for a continued threat of thunder, but
not much severe potential. Accordingly, the severe potential will
mostly be confined to southeast OK and northwest AR Saturday,
continuing to shift southeastward with time. Heavy rain will
continue at times for much of the area through the day Saturday
and into Sunday morning. Model guidance is showing between 2-6"
for most of the area during this period. PW and IVT are both above
the 90th percentile for this year, with pockets as high as the
99th percentile. Accordingly, a Flood Watch has been issued for
late Friday through most of Sunday for all but portions of
southeast OK. Both localized flash flooding and main stem river
flooding are concerns. The highest potential will be on Saturday,
with the WPC showing a moderate risk of excessive rainfall for
much of the area.

The rain will finally wind down Sunday afternoon as the closed low
ejects northeast and away from the area. Temperatures will be
cooler and conditions will be dry Monday and part of Tuesday.
Another weather system may bring a return of the rain and thunder
threat into the middle of next week, but for now it does not look
as potent as the approaching system does.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

VFR conditions should prevail through the period, with gusty south
to southwesterly winds and overnight LLWS being the main aviation
concerns. Current HREF probabilistic data indicates a medium
/around 40 percent/ chance of MVFR ceilings Friday morning,
although the better chances of such remain across far southeast
Oklahoma and south of even MLC. Will leave a mention of a ceiling
at MVFR heights /versus a FEW or SCT mention/ out of the TAFs for
now given differences in the traditional MOS guidance and the
lower HREF probabilities, but it bears watching on future
issuances, especially for MLC and FSM. A low chance of early
afternoon showers exists, primarily at the E OK sites, which will
be covered with a PROB30 mention with MVFR conditions. The chance
of thunderstorms prior to 19/00Z is low but non-zero. Will leave
TSRA out for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  81  57  66 /   0  30 100 100
FSM   65  85  67  79 /   0  30  60  70
MLC   68  83  64  74 /   0  20  70  90
BVO   69  79  51  61 /   0  50 100  90
FYV   65  81  63  74 /   0  40  80  80
BYV   65  81  63  72 /   0  40  80  80
MKO   68  81  62  69 /   0  30  90  90
MIO   68  79  57  64 /   0  50 100 100
F10   68  82  61  68 /   0  20  90 100
HHW   66  83  66  78 /   0  20  50  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from Friday evening through Sunday evening for
     OKZ054>076.

AR...Flood Watch from Friday evening through Sunday evening for
     ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...22