Duncan, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

017
FXUS64 KOUN 020346
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1046 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1043 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025

- Shower and storm chances continue much of next week, with heavy
  rainfall and severe weather possible.

- Near average temperatures expected over the next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 134 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025

After the morning rains, skies have cleared across much of the area
with light winds and mild temperatures this afternoon.

Tonight will be quiet with winds coming back around to the south as
surface pressure falls occur across the High Plains in advance of
approaching shortwave. Increasing llj along with some waa may result
in a shower or two across north Texas that may try to work north
into western north Texas as well as southwest/southern Oklahoma
toward morning. However much of the waa will be occurring in a
rather dry layer, so it will need to overcome this before much in
the way of precip can occur. The latest NBM inits has removed the
low pops that were in the forecast for late tonight and will leave
the forecast dry overnight. Not out of the question for some
isolated pockets of fog across western Oklahoma toward morning.
Should see at least some increase in high clouds toward morning in
advance of shortwave across southwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 134 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025

South winds will continue to increase across the Plains on Monday
bringing increasing gulf moisture northward into the area. By
afternoon, upper trough will be working out of the southern Rockies
into the Plains. Convection is expected to develop across the High
Plains of eastern Colorado southward into eastern New Mexico Monday
afternoon. This initial convection will be rather high-based as much
more substantial boundary layer moisture and associated instability
will be well east of this area. However as the convection moves east
across the panhandles it will encounter better moisture and will
have higher chances of a severe risk, mainly hail and wind. These
storms will then move into western Oklahoma and western north
Texas Monday evening.

Some indications are that this activity will gradually weaken as
it moves toward central sections of Oklahoma during the late
evening with the loss of daytime heating, less instability and
lack of deep layer shear. Although still anticipate a good chance
of showers and storms, but severe chances will decrease as we go
through the night.

Storms will likely continue into the day Tuesday as upper trough
remains to our west with surface front moving into northwest
Oklahoma in the morning with a moisture plume centered on the I44
corridor. This front will slide southeast and is expected to be
just north and west of I-44 by late afternoon. By this time the
upper trough will eject east across the area and more robust
convection is expected to develop along and east of the surface
front. However with convection expected through the day and only
modest deep-layer shear should limit the severity of the storms to
some degree. Storms Tuesday afternoon and evening will mainly
pose a hail and wind risk, along with heavy rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025

An active pattern remains through the week with a series of mid-
level troughs developing across the west with shortwaves and/or
the primary troughs ejecting towards the Plains at times, so
occasional thunderstorms are expected throughout the week. The
medium range models vary somewhat on the specific timing of the
waves so the POPs are somewhat broad-brushed in the extended at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025

VFR conditions tonight. Continue to think that a shallow moist
layer will allow the development of at least scattered boundary-
layer stratus early tomorrow. Added TEMPO groups with MVFR
ceilings at some sites where this appears likeliest. After that,
the other aviation concern will be a line of storms that looks to
move in from the TX panhandle after 0Z tomorrow. Likeliest sites
to see impacted visibilities/potential strong winds would be west
central Oklahoma, with the line likely weakening as it moves
toward I-35.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  85  65  87  71 /  30   0  10  40
Hobart OK         88  66  92  68 /  20  10  10  70
Wichita Falls TX  88  68  93  71 /  30  10  10  50
Gage OK           87  64  92  64 /   0  10  10  50
Ponca City OK     86  63  88  70 /   0   0  10  40
Durant OK         84  66  87  73 /  60  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...04