Choctaw, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

810
FXUS64 KOUN 111141
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
641 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 613 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

- Heat wave is expected this weekend before cold front arrives on
  Sunday.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions return this
  weekend.

- Low chances for showers and storms return middle of next week
  with near average temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

The upper ridge drifts over the northern Rockies and steers the
surface high across the plains today, which causes low-level
northerly flow to shift south-southwest. As a result, weak low-
level CAA gradually diminishes and transitions to WAA by this
evening. Winds will generally be on the light side while shifting
anti-cyclonically with the passage of the surface ridge axis. It
will be a pleasant spring day with sunny skies and high temperatures
mainly in the 70`s, with near 80 degrees over western north Texas.

Marginally elevated fire weather conditions are possible this afternoon
across a small portion of northwest Oklahoma. The fire risk will
be primarily driven by low relative humidity since maximum winds
of only 10 to 15 mph are expected.

Thompson

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Breezy and much warmer this weekend, with elevated to near critical
fire weather conditions possible...

A H250 jet streak reaches the Pacific northwest and effectively pushes
the ridge over the plains. This jet streak prompts mid-level height
falls and rapid development of a lee-side surface trough on Saturday.
As a result, much warmer temperatures and windy conditions are expected
over the weekend. The heat peaks on Sunday with temperatures near
the century mark over southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas.

As this surface low passes to our north, the associated cold front
moves into Oklahoma sometime on Sunday. Frontal timing trends will
need to be watched as a faster solution could lower high temperatures
on Sunday for parts of northwest Oklahoma.

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Increased cloudiness and cooler temperatures are forecast on Monday
following FROPA. A flattened ridge sets up over our region towards
the middle of next week and winds return to the south by Tuesday night.
The return to the WAA regime will allow temperatures to gradually trend
upwards through Wednesday. There is considerable uncertainty with
regards to high temperatures for middle to end of next week, with
10 to 15 deg model spreads within the 25th to 75th percentile
(most reasonable set of solutions).

Low shower and thunderstorm chances return next Tuesday night and
remain through Thursday.

Thompson

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

All of our terminals will remain under VFR conditions through the
entire forecast period. High surface pressure across our area will
keep surface winds out of the north at 10-15 kts gradually veering
southeasterly by 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  75  49  79  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         78  50  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  79  51  86  63 /   0  10   0   0
Gage OK           78  51  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     73  45  79  62 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         76  47  77  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...68