Broken Arrow, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

251
FXUS64 KTSA 211707
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1107 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 928 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Modest CAA will continue today as reinforcing surface high pressure
begins to slide south through the high plains. This will result
in afternoon high temperatures a few degrees below seasonal
averages across the forecast area, and current max temps in the
grids reflect this. Remaining first period elements are in line as
well and will be left as is.

No update is planned at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 212 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Friday morning will be even cooler than this morning, with most
areas near or below freezing. For now have opted not to issue a
Freeze Warning even for areas that have not frozen yet given that
the growing season is now over, but will let the day shift make the
final call on that. High temperatures on Friday will remain quite
chilly, ranging from the mid 50s in the north to the low 60s in the
south.

Upper level heights will be rebounding Friday and into the weekend
as upper level ridging rebuilds. Increasing low level southerly
flow will bring warmer and somewhat more humid air back into the
area, with highs increasing to the 60s on Saturday and low 70s by
Sunday. High clouds will also increase in advance of the next
frontal system, which arrives Monday. Like the last few fronts,
this one is expected to be dry, with essentially no ensemble
signal for any precipitation. It`s impacts will be another surge
of cool and dry air as well as breezy northerly flow. Highs should
drop back into the 50s for at least a few days beginning Monday.

The next chance of rain isn`t until next Tuesday or Wednesday along
the leading edge of a deep trough that may enter the area near
Thanksgiving. At this time the ensemble spread is fairly large for
this period, with wild run-to-run inconsistency among the models.
Ensemble EOF analysis shows the dominant mode of uncertainty is
with the longitudinal axis of where the trough sets up, with
secondary uncertainty relating to its amplitude. Either way, it`s
at least fair to say that most likely we will enter another cooler
and wetter stretch by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1106 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the valid
period at all area sites.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  32  58  35 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   59  34  59  36 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   62  33  60  34 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   55  27  57  29 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   54  27  55  29 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   52  30  53  33 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   56  30  56  33 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   51  28  53  31 /   0   0   0   0
F10   58  32  58  34 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   64  35  62  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...10