Toledo, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

854
FXUS61 KCLE 071744
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
144 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front across central Ohio will push south into the
Ohio River Valley tonight as Canadian high pressure builds
across the Great Lakes. A warm front will begin to approach
Saturday night as weak low pressure moves out of the Mid
Mississippi Valley. The front will lift across the region Sunday
ahead of stronger low pressure moving into the Upper Midwest.
This low will progress across the Great Lakes Monday and drag a
strong cold front through the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
120 PM Update...
Haze (and possibly smoke) is struggling to mix out and have
added haze into the forecast through the remainder of this
afternoon. No additional changes needed with this update.

Previous Discussion...
An upper-level shortwave is making its way eastward across the
Ohio Valley right now, with the accompanying front pushing
southeast away from the area. A few rain showers may clip the
southern part of our forecast area early this morning before 5
AM, but otherwise we should be precipitation-free. Elsewhere, a
mix of haze and patchy fog continues to persist across the area
this morning as low-level moisture and Canadian wildfire smoke
remains trapped underneath a temperature inversion. Visibilities
should quickly improve after around 8-9am as daytime heating
allowed for mixing and deepening of the boundary layer.

Surface high pressure builds into the Great Lakes region today
and tonight, and it should actually be mostly sunny for at least
the first part of today. Unfortunately, this is short-lived as
our next shortwave and associated low pressure system makes its
way eastward across the Ohio Valley. High-level cirrus will
increase out of the southwest this afternoon/evening, with rain
showers following after midnight tonight. Rain showers are expected
to be nearly areawide (perhaps a bit less in Northwest Ohio)
through the morning hours as the precipitation shield drifts
eastward to generally near and east of I-71 during the Sunday
afternoon/evening hours. Thunderstorms become more likely during
the afternoon/evening hours east of I-71, which is where
moderate to heavy rain may be possible. Total expected QPF
ranges from ~0.1" in Northwest Ohio to 0.5" or more in central
and east- central Ohio, with isolated amounts of 1" or greater
possible where thunderstorms are more persistent, with a low
chance for localized flooding.

Despite being on the cool side of the front today and the system
tonight and tomorrow, temperatures will be near normal with
highs in the mid to upper 70s and low in the upper 50s to around
60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A large upper-level closed low builds into the Upper Midwest and
northern Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday before opening up
into a trough as it lifts northeast into Canada Monday night
through Tuesday night. A cold front associated with this will
approach the area from the northwest late Sunday night and
Monday, with showers and thunderstorms expected along and ahead
of this front early Monday morning (in Northwest Ohio) and
through the day Monday as it spreads eastward. Thunderstorms are
expected during the afternoon/evening, some of which will
likely produce moderate to heavy rain, and perhaps localized
flooding. The probability of at least periods of heavy rain has
been increasing, with model guidance showing around 5% of
greater than 0.5" a couple days ago to now 10-25%. There are
some good indicators for moderate shear/instability overlap as
well, with at least a low chance for organized severe
thunderstorms if things line up.

A secondary trough may be possible on Tuesday as the upper-level
trough departs, with some isolated to scattered light rain
showers possible during the day Tuesday. Most people won`t see
rain though, and there is actually a good chance for some
sunshine for a good chunk of the day Tuesday. Despite the cold
frontal passage, temperatures generally remain in the 70s
through the short term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure builds in to the south Wednesday and Thursday
before drifting towards the east coast on Friday. Should
generally be mostly sunny skies with temperatures in the 80s. We
start to see a chance of showers and thunderstorms on Friday,
as moisture advection leads to a more humid airmass with
afternoon instability.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Haze and perhaps some smoke remain across portions of the area,
but reduced visibilities are generally isolated at this point
thanks to diurnal mixing. MVFR visibilities at KFDY/KYNG may
persist for the first couple hours of the TAF period before
conditions improve late afternoon/early evening. Otherwise, VFR
with cirrus will persist through most of tonight before a warm
front lifts into the region early Sunday morning. This will
usher showers with deteriorating cigs/vsbys northeast into the
area through the remainder of the TAF period. Still some
uncertainty in the coverage and northward extent of showers, but
generally thinking all terminals will have at least a brief
period of showers and non-VFR conditions. There`s some potential
for IFR cigs/vsbys after 12Z Sunday morning where showers
persist, but would like to see how upstream obs look as the
showers approach from the area before adding IFR to the TAFs.

Winds will be out of east/northeast at 5 to 10 knots through the
TAF period with sustained winds potentially diminishing below 5
knots at eastern terminals for a period tonight.

Outlook...Non-VFR is likely at times Sunday afternoon into
Sunday night as weak low pressure brings occasional showers and
lower ceilings to the area. Additional non-VFR is possible in
scattered showers/storms on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally light (<15kt) northerly winds will gradually shift
northeasterly today as weak high pressure slides from west to east
across the northern Great Lakes. Weak low pressure and a warm front
will lift out of the Ohio Valley on Sunday. Winds will increase to
around 15kt out of the east-northeast early Sunday before shifting
more south-southwesterly at 10-15kt Sunday night into Monday. Winds
shift more southwesterly later Monday into Tuesday behind a weak
cold frontal passage, and persist out of that general direction at
<15kt through most of the week. Winds and waves are expected to
remain under headline criteria for the foreseeable future, though
winds may be just strong enough to build 2-3 foot waves over the
western and central basins for a time late tonight into Sunday. Any
thunderstorms over the lake Sunday afternoon through Tuesday could
produce locally higher winds and waves.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Saunders
NEAR TERM...15/Saunders
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...15
MARINE...Sullivan