Strongsville, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

104
FXUS61 KCLE 172338
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
738 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will drift off the east coast tonight allowing a
strong warm front to lift across the region as low pressure
moves into the Upper Mississippi Valley. This low will track
into the Upper Great Lakes by Friday night, pulling a cold front
through the region late Friday night into Saturday. This front
will stall over the Ohio Valley before returning north late
Sunday and Monday as another low lifts toward the Great Lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Beautiful weather continues this afternoon with mostly sunny skies
areawide and a welcome change to temperatures more typical of mid
April. This is thanks to a large mid/upper ridge amplifying over the
central and eastern CONUS in response to a strong mid/upper trough
digging west of the Rockies. The surface high is currently centered
over the Appalachians and Mid Atlantic, and this will continue to
drift eastward offshore of the coast tonight. This is all resulting
in southerly low-level flow and the start of warm air advection. Mid
afternoon temperatures range from the mid 50s to low 60s. The
exception is lakeshore areas where the light gradient has
allowed a lake breeze to develop, and temperatures are hovering
around 50 there. The lake breeze should dissipate by mid evening
allowing for the lakeshore communities to enjoy the milder
temperatures too.

As the aforementioned mid/upper trough continues to deepen and
slowly swing into the Rockies tonight and Friday, lead shortwave
energy will lift a surface low into Iowa tonight then across the
Upper Great Lakes by Friday night. This will lift a strong warm
front northeastward across the region tonight. Strong warm air
advection and isentropic ascent as a low-level jet increases to 40-
45 knots late tonight will support a broken band of showers. There
isn`t much forcing other than broad warm air advection and
isentropic ascent, and with relatively dry low-levels, suspect that
not much rain will reach the ground. Kept PoPs in the slight chance
to chance range tonight, with only a trace to 0.05 inch at most.
Lows tonight will be milder, with generally mid 40s to low 50s
expected, except low 40s in NW PA. Very warm conditions are expected
in the warm sector on Friday after morning clouds and remnant
showers/sprinkles clear out. H85 temps looks to rise to 15-17 C in
NW Ohio and 11-13 C in NE Ohio and NW PA, and this combined with
strong mixing and a lack of vegetation out yet will easily yield
80s. Used a heavy NBM90 blend for high temperatures Friday, with
upper 70s/low 80s areawide. NW and north central Ohio could see a
few mid 80s. A strong pressure gradient will offset any lake breeze,
so the warmth will be felt right up to the lakefront. Temperatures
should stay a few degrees below record highs, but it will be close
in some locations, so included a climate section below.

This strong pressure gradient will lead to very breezy conditions
Friday. The southern fringe of a 60-70 knot H5 jet crossing the
central Great Lakes will keep a 40-45 knot low-level (850-925 mb)
jet in place through the afternoon in response. The very warm
temperatures will allow for deep mixing into these stronger winds
aloft, so expect SW winds to rapidly increase to 15-25 knots by mid
to late morning, with gusts of 30-40 knots at times through the
afternoon. The strongest winds will be in NW Ohio and in favored
downslope areas near the lakeshore. Held off on any Wind Advisories
at this point since would like to see a stronger low-level jet, and
the surface low will be slightly weakening as it lifts into the
Great Lakes, but it will be close. The main message either way is
that a very warm and breezy day is expected.

All guidance continues to trend slower with the cold frontal timing
Friday night. This will keep the greater forcing west of the region
longer along with strong capping, so by the time remnant convection
reaches NW Ohio, instability will be at a diurnal minimum. Will
likely not see any severe weather other than some potential gusty
winds and brief heavy rain, so after coordination with the SPC, the
SWODY2 has been greatly reduced to only a Marginal Risk in NW Ohio
to account for any remnant convection late Friday night.
Concurrently, slowed down the arrival of likely to categorical PoPs
until mainly after 06Z. Lows Friday night will stay mild, with upper
50s to low 60s expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Rounds showers are expected through Saturday as a cold front tracks
southeast across the area. Likely to categorical PoPs continue
across most of the area. Can`t rule out a few rumbles of thunder
Saturday morning, but the better chance of thunderstorms will be
during peak heating in southeastern zones late Saturday
morning/early afternoon. The best instability appears to be to the
southeast of the CWA Saturday afternoon, but gusty winds in
showers/storms cannot be ruled out along the southeastern fringe of
the local area since bulk shear values will likely be at least 50-60
knots. The Marginal Risk of severe weather has been pulled farther
northwest into the area to account for the impressive wind field and
potential for some elevated convection.

Guidance diverges quite a bit for Saturday night into early Sunday
as the front slows somewhere over the Ohio Valley, but generally
thinking that shower coverage will decrease at least a little bit
Saturday night. There will most likely be a period where
precipitation remains to the west of the local area Sunday afternoon
through Sunday night and have scaled PoPs back quite a bit during
this timeframe. It`s possible that PoPs may be scaled back further
if guidance maintains the drying trend.

The front will produce a non-diurnal temperature trend Saturday;
highs will likely be achieved early in the day across NW OH with
temps falling throughout the day. Maximum temps will be in the 60s
for most of the area, but locations from roughly Marion to
Youngstown, OH southeastward will have highs in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. A slower frontal passage may result in warmer highs.
Saturday night`s lows will be in the 40s. Sunday`s highs will be in
the cooler 50s north of U.S. Route 30 and the lower 60s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The break in the unsettled weather pattern will be short-lived and
rain chances will return as low pressure lifts northeast from the
Middle Mississippi Valley into the western Great Lakes Monday. This
low will lift the stationary front over the Ohio Valley north as a
warm front by Monday morning with a cold front sweeping east across
the area during the day Monday. Showers are likely and thunderstorms
are possible ahead of the cold front Monday morning and afternoon
with additional scattered showers possible as an upper trough
lingers over the region Monday evening. A ridge will build east
across the region Tuesday through Thursday, resulting in a drying
trend Tuesday through at least Wednesday afternoon. Some longer
range guidance is hinting at a system bringing precipitation to the
region late in the long term period, but there`s far too much
uncertainty in the upper level pattern to discuss any precipitation
chances at this time.

The weather will turn warmer next week with highs in the upper 60s
and lower 70s expected for Monday. Highs will likely be a few
degrees cooler over NE OH/NW PA Tuesday, but anticipate highs back
in the upper 60s to lower 70s by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Expecting winds to increase out of the south tonight with a warm
front pushing through the area. A few isolated showers are
possible, but precipitation at any terminal should be brief and
do not expect any changes in flight conditions. LLWS expected
for most of the terminals tonight as the boundary layer
decouples/ceases to mix due to surface temperatures cooling.
Expecting diurnal cumulus formation with daytime heating. Winds
gusting 25-35kts out of the southwest Friday. Cold front
approaches with showers/storms after 00Z Saturday.

Outlook...Non-VFR with showers likely late Friday night and
Saturday, with a chance for thunderstorms as well. Non-VFR is
possible in periods of rain and low clouds Saturday night
through Monday, but confidence is lower.

&&

.MARINE...
A warm front will lift across the lake tonight and southerly winds
will increase in the warm sector late tonight into early Friday.
There`s some uncertainty in how strong the winds become, but most
nearshore locations will experience a period of at least 20 knot
winds at some point early Friday morning through at least Friday
afternoon. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for all nearshore
zones starting early Friday morning with headlines dropping off from
east to west Friday afternoon into Friday evening. The highest waves
will be focused offshore. Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions
may continue over portions of the eastern basin through Friday
night, but there`s still uncertainty in how strong the winds are
after 00Z Friday evening; the existing Small Craft Advisory may need
to be extended through Friday night for portions of the eastern
basin.

Winds will shift to the west/northwest and diminish as a cold front
crosses the lake Saturday. East/northeast winds will develop Sunday
and winds and waves may increase to 15 to 20 knots Sunday night.
Small Craft Advisories may be needed as southerly winds increase as
warm front lifts over the lake Monday and as westerly winds develop
behind a cold front Monday night.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for
     LEZ142>144.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM EDT Friday for
     LEZ145>148.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 2 PM EDT Friday for LEZ149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Garuckas
NEAR TERM...Garuckas
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...26
MARINE...15