Mansfield, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

637
FXUS61 KCLE 071318
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
918 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front across central Ohio will push south into the
Ohio River Valley tonight as Canadian high pressure builds
across the Great Lakes. A warm front will begin to approach
Saturday night as weak low pressure moves out of the Mid
Mississippi Valley. The front will lift across the region Sunday
ahead of stronger low pressure moving into the Upper Midwest.
This low will progress across the Great Lakes Monday and drag a
strong cold front through the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
915 AM Update...
The forecast remains on track and no changes were needed with
this update. Any lower visibilities due to lingering mist/haze
should improve as diurnal mixing increases over the next couple
of hours.

Previous Discussion...
An upper-level shortwave is making its way eastward across the
Ohio Valley right now, with the accompanying front pushing
southeast away from the area. A few rain showers may clip the
southern part of our forecast area early this morning before 5
AM, but otherwise we should be precipitation-free. Elsewhere, a
mix of haze and patchy fog continues to persist across the area
this morning as low-level moisture and Canadian wildfire smoke
remains trapped underneath a temperature inversion. Visibilities
should quickly improve after around 8-9am as daytime heating
allowed for mixing and deepening of the boundary layer.

Surface high pressure builds into the Great Lakes region today
and tonight, and it should actually be mostly sunny for at least
the first part of today. Unfortunately, this is short-lived as
our next shortwave and associated low pressure system makes its
way eastward across the Ohio Valley. High-level cirrus will
increase out of the southwest this afternoon/evening, with rain
showers following after midnight tonight. Rain showers are expected
to be nearly areawide (perhaps a bit less in Northwest Ohio)
through the morning hours as the precipitation shield drifts
eastward to generally near and east of I-71 during the Sunday
afternoon/evening hours. Thunderstorms become more likely during
the afternoon/evening hours east of I-71, which is where
moderate to heavy rain may be possible. Total expected QPF
ranges from ~0.1" in Northwest Ohio to 0.5" or more in central
and east- central Ohio, with isolated amounts of 1" or greater
possible where thunderstorms are more persistent, with a low
chance for localized flooding.

Despite being on the cool side of the front today and the system
tonight and tomorrow, temperatures will be near normal with
highs in the mid to upper 70s and low in the upper 50s to around
60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A large upper-level closed low builds into the Upper Midwest and
northern Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday before opening up
into a trough as it lifts northeast into Canada Monday night
through Tuesday night. A cold front associated with this will
approach the area from the northwest late Sunday night and
Monday, with showers and thunderstorms expected along and ahead
of this front early Monday morning (in Northwest Ohio) and
through the day Monday as it spreads eastward. Thunderstorms are
expected during the afternoon/evening, some of which will
likely produce moderate to heavy rain, and perhaps localized
flooding. The probability of at least periods of heavy rain has
been increasing, with model guidance showing around 5% of
greater than 0.5" a couple days ago to now 10-25%. There are
some good indicators for moderate shear/instability overlap as
well, with at least a low chance for organized severe
thunderstorms if things line up.

A secondary trough may be possible on Tuesday as the upper-level
trough departs, with some isolated to scattered light rain
showers possible during the day Tuesday. Most people won`t see
rain though, and there is actually a good chance for some
sunshine for a good chunk of the day Tuesday. Despite the cold
frontal passage, temperatures generally remain in the 70s
through the short term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure builds in to the south Wednesday and Thursday
before drifting towards the east coast on Friday. Should
generally be mostly sunny skies with temperatures in the 80s. We
start to see a chance of showers and thunderstorms on Friday,
as moisture advection leads to a more humid airmass with
afternoon instability.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
A mixed bag is observed as we come up on 12z as some mist/fog
and low stratus persists, especially from ERI-AKR-MFD-FDY points
south, though with conditions generally improving as the sun
rises. Expect all sites to return to VFR by 14z, with good
aviation conditions persisting through this evening. Low
pressure begins lifting out of the Ohio Valley towards Sunday
morning, bringing overcast skies and showers back in from the
southwest. Began including some vsby and ceiling restrictions to
MVFR late in the TAF period at TOL, FDY, and MFD (and at CLE
with a 30 hour TAF), though hi-res models disagree on how
quickly more numerous showers and lower ceilings advance in.
Generally leaned a bit on the slower side, but some adjustments
could be needed either direction as confidence increases. Sites
farther east will need to be evaluated for potential
restrictions after 12z Sunday in future cycles.

Northerly winds are currently quite light (<5kt) but will
increase to 5-10kt out of the north-northeast later this morning
into this afternoon. Winds shift more east-northeasterly tonight
and weaken slightly to 4-8kt.

Outlook...Non-VFR is likely at times Sunday into Sunday night
as weak low pressure brings occasional showers and lower
ceilings to the area. Additional non-VFR is possible in
scattered showers/storms on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally light (<15kt) northerly winds will gradually shift
northeasterly today as weak high pressure slides from west to east
across the northern Great Lakes. Weak low pressure and a warm front
will lift out of the Ohio Valley on Sunday. Winds will increase to
around 15kt out of the east-northeast early Sunday before shifting
more south-southwesterly at 10-15kt Sunday night into Monday. Winds
shift more southwesterly later Monday into Tuesday behind a weak
cold frontal passage, and persist out of that general direction at
<15kt through most of the week. Winds and waves are expected to
remain under headline criteria for the foreseeable future, though
winds may be just strong enough to build 2-3 foot waves over the
western and central basins for a time late tonight into Sunday. Any
thunderstorms over the lake Sunday afternoon through Tuesday could
produce locally higher winds and waves.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Saunders
NEAR TERM...15/Saunders
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...Sullivan