Mansfield, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

356
FXUS61 KCLE 251119
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
719 AM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move through the lower Great Lakes Region today,
pulling a cold front east across the area tonight. Strong high
pressure will build south out of Canada from Saturday night through
Sunday night. A warm front will lift north across the area late
Monday followed by a cold front pushing back south late Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Rain has expanded across Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania. This rain will move east through the morning. It
still looks like a break in precipitation is likely early this
afternoon before showers and thunderstorms expand late in the
afternoon.

Previous discussion...
Broad surface low pressure over the Mid-Mississippi Valley this
morning will move northeast to near Lake Erie this evening. This
occurs as shortwave energy aloft lifts into the Central Great Lakes
today then merges with a deepening upper trough pushing south out of
Canada tonight into Saturday. The airmass will continue to moisten
today with dewpoints climbing into the low 60s and deep layer
moisture advection ahead of the shortwave. An area of rain can be
seen this morning on regional radars moving northeast out of Central
Ohio. This is best aligned with a leading trough lifting
northeast in the 850-700mb layer and low and mid-level theta e
advection focused from north central Ohio to Northwest
Pennsylvania through the morning. A pocket of drier air is
expected to arrive behind it which may allow for some breaks in
the clouds and for heating and destabilization of the atmosphere
this afternoon. Only have an isolated thunderstorm mention this
morning but HREF indicates surface based CAPE of 400-800 J/kg
will develop this afternoon and model soundings depict skinny
cape with a deep moist layer. High resolution models have come
into pretty good agreement with showers and thunderstorms
filling back in this afternoon and evening as the main trough
lifts northeast through the Ohio Valley. As noted over previous
cycles, precipitable water values are forecast to be near the
climatological maximum for April 25 at 1.25-1.40". Locally
heavy rain looks favorable with thunderstorms today and qpf
values have trended upwards towards an inch in eastern portions
of the forecast area. While storm motion is expected to be to
the northeast at 15-20 knots, some training is possible
especially from Central Ohio to Northeast Ohio and some of the
high resolution models are showing pockets of 2+ inches of rain.
We should generally be able to handle the rain but a few spots
of localized flooding are possible if it comes down quick,
mainly in urban areas.

Most areas will make it into the 70s for another day before
temperatures fall with the passage of the cold front overnight
through Saturday. The trough at 500mb closes off with heights of
around 547dm over western New York on Saturday afternoon. The low
level cold pool shows temperatures of -2C over Northwest
Pennsylvania on Saturday and expect clouds will hold on for much of
the day in the east where cyclonic flow will be slow to relax.
Eastern areas may see temperatures fall into the upper 40s
Saturday afternoon while northwest Ohio clears out with
building high pressure and temperatures reaching the mid to
upper 50s. Eastern areas will also have a brisk northwest wind
and wind chills in the upper 30s to low 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The main weather concern for the short term period will be the
potential for patchy to perhaps areas of frost to develop Saturday
and Sunday night across the interior portions of northern Ohio.
Clearing skies under light winds will allow for efficient radiative
cooling, dropping overnight low temperatures into the mid to upper
30s. Otherwise, dry and quiet weather is expected as high pressure
persists across the Great Lakes.

Seasonable to slightly below average high temperatures are expected
for Sunday in the upper 50s to lower 60s, with above average
temperatures returning for Monday in the low to mid-70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The main concern for the long term period will be a dynamic system
on Tuesday. Model guidance indicates the development of an elevated
mixed layer across the Central Plains, with a plume of mid-level
lapse rates exceeding 7 C/km to arrive into the Great Lakes region
immediately following a warm frontal passage late Monday night into
early Tuesday morning. Low-level moisture is also impressive by
Spring standards, with surface dew points rising into the mid-60s,
resulting in moderate MLCAPE values of 1500 to perhaps 2000 J/kg.
There remains some discrepancy in the 700 mb wind strength, although
ensemble probabilities indicate a high likelihood of exceeding at
least 40 knots of SW flow. Putting everything together into a joint
probability, ensembles indicate a medium (50%) chance for an
environment conducive of severe weather Tuesday afternoon and
evening with all hazards possible, particularly along and west of
the I-77 corridor, lining up nicely with the current SPC SWODY6
slight risk.

This system will drag a cold front south across the Great Lakes
Tuesday night into Wednesday, with high pressure favored to build in
from the north. This cold front is expected to become a stationary
front just south of the area on Wednesday, though some mid-level
overrunning flow could increase precipitation chances from the
southwest by late Wednesday night into Thursday as another system
develops and moves northeast into the Ohio Valley. For now, went
more conservative on precipitation chances behind the front on
Wednesday, with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms on
Thursday as the next system arrives.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Rain has expanded across Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania and will continue to move northeast through the
morning. Ceilings are VFR at all terminals early this morning
but are expected to see MVFR ceilings late this morning as
daytime heating increases. Most areas can expect to see a break
in precipitation early this afternoon before showers and
thunderstorms expand late in the afternoon as a trough lifts
northeast through the Ohio Valley. Models are in fairly good
agreement that showers and thunderstorms will expand in coverage
from southwest to northeast this afternoon with most locations
experiencing rain at some point. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected and may produce heavy rain at times. IFR visibilities
and wind gusts to 30 knots will be possible in any
thunderstorms, primarily in the 20-02Z time range.

Winds will be light through 14Z, developing out of the south at
5-10 knots today. A wind shift to the west and eventually
northwest will accompany an approaching cold front moving
northwest to southeast across the area between 01-08Z.

Outlook...Non-VFR clouds will linger late Friday night into
Saturday morning. Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Northwest flow will increase to near 20 knots behind a cold front
overnight into Saturday, with Small Craft headlines needed for much
of the central and eastern basins of the lake into Saturday evening.
Flow will remain out of the northwest on Sunday morning, though
gradually weakening throughout the day as high pressure settles in.
The next opportunity for potential Small Craft conditions might be
on Tuesday ahead of a cold front, with offshore southwest flow of 15
to 25 knots expected to develop. Will also need to monitor the
potential for a few stronger storms to impact the lake Tuesday
afternoon and evening.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...Kahn
LONG TERM...Kahn
AVIATION...10
MARINE...Kahn