Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

745
FXUS61 KCLE 111329
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
929 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure over Upstate New York will get absorbed by a
larger low pressure system undercutting the region to the south
and will move off the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight. High pressure
will enter the region for Saturday. A warm front will cross the
area on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Made a few small adjustments to temperatures based on latest
observations, but otherwise the forecast remains on track and no
major changes were needed with this update.

Previous Discussion...
The pattern for today and tonight will largely stay the same for
most of the forecast area. The area will be on the cooler, back
side of a weak low pressure system to the east. Weak flow and
high low level moisture will allow for widespread cloud cover
for the entire area and intermittent instances of fog and/or
very fine rain/drizzle in NE OH and NW PA. The energy of this
low will transfer southeast into another system that will
strengthen over the Mid-Atlantic coast. This will allow for high
pressure to build in from the west with a much drier air mass.
Clouds should be able to clear easily across Northwest Ohio by
tonight. However, clouds will be more difficult to clear out
downwind of Lake Erie until the surface high gets over the
region on Saturday and allows for some backed flow to reduce the
lake influence into the region. Highs will be cooler than normal
in the 40s to lower 50s with lows in the 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be overhead Saturday night, sliding to the east
on Sunday as rather weak low pressure works from the central Plains
towards the Upper Mississippi Valley. This low pressure will drift
into the northern Great Lakes by Monday morning while deepening,
lifting a warm front across the area Sunday night and pushing a cold
front across the area Monday afternoon.

Dry and chilly conditions are anticipated for Saturday night, with
lows mainly in the 30s. Some weak moist isentropic lift ahead of the
warm front on Sunday will increase clouds and may lead to some light
rain shower activity...though the lift will be fairly modest with
dry low-levels so POPs are low, generally in the 20% range. Highs on
Sunday should warm into the 50s, with some chance at reaching 60
along the I-75 corridor. 20-30% POPs continue into Sunday night
ahead of the warm front before lifting northeast of the area
overnight. Lows Sunday night range from the mid 40s to low 50s.

Monday should start dry and relatively milder before the cold front
crosses from midday through the afternoon. Have 40-60% POPs with the
frontal passage and those have room to come up still. Am not looking
at a high-QPF rain event overall (NBM probabilities of rain staying
<0.50" generally 90-95%), which makes sense given the stronger
vorticity advection, height falls, and upper-level divergence
staying to our north on Monday. However, with a strong front passing
through near peak heating with some instability developing a round
of showers and perhaps thunder is a decent likelihood. Deep-layer
bulk shear values will be strong Monday afternoon, potentially on
the order of 50kt...which along with the presence of an elevated
mixed layer/EML (GFS and ECMWF suggesting 500-700mb lapse rates of 7-
8C/km) does at least raise an eyebrow for severe weather potential.
Dew points likely staying <60F and air temperatures likely staying
<70F should keep instability somewhat in check, though if we can
manage 500-1000 J/KG of MLCAPE by Monday afternoon ahead of the
front there`d be some potential for damaging winds/large hail given
the strong deep-layer shear and presence of an EML. Greatest
likelihood for building that much instability is just to our south,
though trends will be worth monitoring. We should get into a
relative dry break behind the front Monday night with lows falling
back well into the 40s amid westerly breezes.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A deep upper trough will be over the Great Lakes and digging into
the Northeast U.S. on Tuesday. This trough will lift out on
Wednesday, with the next rather deep trough digging into the Midwest
and Great Lakes Thursday into Friday. Chilly, breezy, showery
weather is expected for Tuesday, especially from Northeast OH into
PA with relatively drier conditions farther west. It gets just
chilly enough (850mb temperatures -6C to -9C) amid west-northwest
flow for some lake effect precip Tuesday night into early
Wednesday...which would likely mix with/change to snow Tuesday night
with little to no accumulation. Surface high pressure builds in
Wednesday as upper troughing starts lifting out, allowing for drier
and clearing conditions. Rain chances begin returning Thursday into
Thursday night as low pressure and a cold front ahead of the next
rather impressive trough begin approaching from the west.
Temperatures will be below normal for much of this period, though
will briefly spike up towards normal on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Overall, not too many changes to the aviation forecast with this
TAF package. Widespread non-VFR continues across the region
with MVFR to the west and IFR/LIFR in the east. Some clearing
skies are trying to enter the KTOL area and will be in and out
through the morning. Abundant low level moisture and weak north
flow will allow for IFR/LIFR conditions to continue through the
TAF period with very slow improvement. High pressure will enter
from the west this afternoon and will help scour out some of
the clouds in Northwest Ohio, but the only terminals that may
fully lose ceilings would be KTOL and KFDY. KCLE and KMFD could
see ceilings improve to VFR by the end of the TAF period with
the advancing high pressure, but it may be difficult given the
air mass across the region and the colder north flow and there
will be a drastic edge to the MVFR vs. clear skies. LIFR will
stick around KERI and KYNG after 00z into Saturday.

Outlook...Non-VFR ceilings and visibility will continue into
Saturday across NE OH/NW PA. Scattered rain showers with non-
VFR are possible this Monday afternoon through Tuesday.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible Monday evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Northerly winds of 10-15 knots will lead to choppy conditions with
waves of 1-3 feet through this evening. High pressure leads to light
and variable winds with limited wave action Saturday and Saturday
night. Winds shift south-southeast into Sunday but should stay under
15 knots through much of Sunday night, allowing fairly quiet marine
conditions to continue through the weekend. Winds shift south-
southwest and increase to 10-20 knots Monday morning, then shift
southwest and at 15-20 knots Monday afternoon-night behind a cold
front. 2-4 footers will begin building over the open waters on
Monday and then push into the nearshore waters while increasing to 3-
5 feet Monday night, especially east of the Islands. Winds shift
more westerly at 20-30 knots on Tuesday as a secondary trough axis
pushes across the lake, with winds staying up at 15-25kt through
Wednesday morning while shifting more northwesterly. This will
maintain rough conditions Tuesday-Tuesday night with waves building
to 5-10 feet east of the Islands and 3-6 feet to the west. Waves
will gradually diminish on Wednesday. Small Craft Advisories will be
needed for most or all of the lake from later Monday through at
least Tuesday night with and behind the cold frontal passage.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...15/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Sullivan
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Sullivan