Cleveland Heights, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

236
FXUS61 KCLE 301417
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
917 AM EST Thu Jan 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move to the east this morning. In its wake, a
warm front will lift north across the area on Thursday. Broad low
pressure tracks across the region on Friday, followed by high
pressure on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
9:15 AM Update...
No changes needed the forecast with this update as high pressure
and mostly sunny skies prevail through today. Temperatures rise
into the mid 40s this afternoon, roughly 5-10 degrees above
normal for late January.

Previous discussion...
A ridge of high pressure centered over the area will depart to
the east this morning. Mid-level clouds encompass the eastern
half of the forecast area, though this should also depart to the
east as well, giving way to mostly sunny skies today for most of
the area. Southerly winds on the backside of the departing high
should result in the temperatures rising to the low to mid 40s
by this afternoon.

Low pressure over the southern Plains/Mississippi Valley will
lift northward, with strong southerly flow and isentropic lift
resulting in an expansive precipitation shield. Rain showers
expand northeastward across the area tonight, with areawide
showers likely around much of tonight through most of the day
Friday. Total areawide average QPF of 0.5-0.75" is expected,
though it`s likely there will be spots that are lower/higher
than this. Continued warming is expected to lead to afternoon
highs in the upper 40s to low 50s, especially along and south of
US-30 on Friday. Warm temperatures and dew points in the upper
30s to low 40s should lead to at least modest snowmelt. Current
snowpack outside the snowbelt really isn`t that substantial,
with less than an inch of snow water equivalent snowpack. There
is about 1-3 inches in the snowbelt of Northeast Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania, though cooler temperatures/dew points
should result in less efficient snowmelt there. Overall, there
isn`t a big flooding concern, perhaps only isolated instances of
nuisance flooding (i.e. ponding in low-lying areas and minor
river rises). As mentioned in previous discussions, despite
somewhat favorable conditions (warm weather and modest QPF
>0.5") the ice jam risk is relatively low, given local spotters
reporting weakened/thin river ice at typical problem spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A trough aloft exits our region to the east Friday night as a ridge
aloft builds from the northern Great Plains and vicinity. At the
surface, the trough exits E`ward as the ridge builds from the Upper
Midwest and vicinity. As the upper-reaches of the cold front depart
SE`ward, associated scattered rain showers are expected to mix with
or change to snow across the majority of our CWA before precip ends
around midnight. CAA at the surface and aloft, and the wet-bulb
effect will contribute to rain mixing with or changing to snow. Any
snow accumulations are still expected to be less than one inch. Fair
weather is expected the rest of Friday night as stabilizing
subsidence accompanies the ridge. Lows are expected to reach the
upper teens to lower 20`s in NW PA and the lower to mid 20`s in
northern OH around daybreak Saturday.

Fair weather is still expected Saturday through Saturday night as
stabilizing subsidence accompanies the aforementioned ridge at the
surface and aloft and the ridge eventually crests E`ward across our
region. A lingering relatively-cold air mass on Saturday will
contribute to daytime highs reaching the 20`s in NW PA and the upper
20`s to upper 30`s in northern OH. Lows are expected to reach the
teens to lower 20`s in NW PA and mainly the 20`s in northern OH
Saturday evening. Readings are then expected to moderate after
midnight as WAA develops and strengthens along the western flank of
the low-level ridge.

W`erly flow aloft is still expected over/near the Great Lakes Region
and OH Valley Sunday through Sunday night. One embedded shortwave
trough will traverse our region from west to east on Sunday, while
another shortwave trough is expected to advance E`ward from the
northern Great Plains and vicinity toward southern QC and vicinity
during Sunday through Sunday night as the attendant surface low
moves from the north-central United States to southern QC.
Accordingly, the attendant surface trough will overspread our region
from the west and the low`s warm front is still expected to sweep
NE`ward through our CWA on Sunday. Periodic precip is possible over
central and eastern Lake Erie, NE OH, and NW PA on Sunday through
Sunday night due to moist isentropic ascent along the upper-reaches
of the warm front and ahead of both shortwave trough axes. This
precip is expected to mainly fall as rain as low-level WAA persists,
but wet snow may mix with the rain Sunday morning and again early
Monday morning. Little or no snow accumulation is expected. Current
odds favor fair weather elsewhere in our CWA. Highs are expected to
reach the 40`s to lower 50`s Sunday afternoon. Lows are expected to
reach the 30`s in NW PA and the mid 30`s to lower 40`s in northern
OH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Flow aloft remains W`erly this Monday through Wednesday. On Monday,
the aforementioned shortwave trough and attendant surface low move
generally E`ward from the southern QC area to the Canadian Maritimes
and allow the trailing cold front to sweep ESE`ward through our CWA.
Scattered rain and/or snow showers are possible along and ahead of
the cold front due to convergence/moist ascent along the front and
pre-front moist isentropic ascent aloft. High temperatures are
expected to reach the upper 30`s to upper 40`s before the front`s
passage.

Fair weather is expected Monday night through Tuesday as stabilizing
subsidence accompanies a ridge at the surface and aloft that will
build E`ward and eventually crest over our region. Low-level CAA
behind the cold front is expected to contribute to overnight lows
reaching mainly the 20`s around daybreak Tuesday and highs reaching
mainly the upper 20`s to upper 30`s Tuesday afternoon. The ridge at
the surface and aloft should continue to exit E`ward Tuesday night
through Wednesday as a trough at the surface and aloft begins to
overspread our area from the Intermountain West and Great Plains.
This pattern evolution at the surface and aloft should allow a
SSW`erly low-level flow of warm/moist air originating over the Gulf
to undergo isentropic ascent and generate precip over our region.
Precip is expected to begin as snow overnight Tuesday night and then
mix with or change to rain across most of our CWA on Wednesday as
low-level WAA affects our region. Latest long-range model guidance
suggests any melting layer will be surface-based and therefore no
sleet or freezing rain will occur. We will monitor trends in the
precip type forecast closely over the coming days. Lows are expected
to reach the 20`s Tuesday night and be followed by afternoon highs
in the lower 30`s to lower 40`s on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
VFR is observed areawide and will continue through at least the
daytime hours today. A low pressure system brings gradually
thickening clouds from the southwest this afternoon, as well as
an expansive precipitation shield tonight. As light to moderate
rain builds in from the southwest, should see ceilings and
visibilities quickly drop to MVFR, and then within 2-3 hours
down to IFR areawide Thursday night. For ceilings, went with
700 ft ceilings in the TAFs, though there are strong indications
from model guidance that ceilings as low as 300 ft will be
possible.

Near calm winds overnight become southerly in the 8-12 knot
range Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. A few gusts in
the 18-22 knot range will be possible during the afternoon
hours. Marginal LLWS may be possible tonight, especially for
eastern TAF sites, though confidence wasn`t quite there to add
to TAFs yet.

Outlook...IFR or lower is expected areawide with rain Friday
into Friday night. Non-VFR is possible with isolated to
scattered rain/snow for Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania Sunday through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
S`erly to SW`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots are expected on Lake
Erie today as a ridge axis moves from the eastern Great Lakes to New
England. On Friday, a low is expected to track generally NE`ward
from near the Mid MS Valley to the Canadian Maritimes and drag its
trailing cold front SE`ward across Lake Erie. As a result, SW`erly
winds around 5 to 15 knots will back gradually to NW`erly. Behind
the front, a ridge is expected to build from the northern Great
Lakes and vicinity through Saturday. Accordingly, NW`erly winds
around 5 to 15 knots are expected to veer gradually to E`erly. On
Sunday, E`erly winds around 10 to 20 knots veer to SW`erly as the
ridge exits E`ward and a warm front sweeps NE`ward across Lake Erie.
A cold front is expected to sweep E`ward across Lake Erie on Monday
and be followed by another ridge building from the north-central
United States and vicinity. SW`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots ahead
of the cold front veer to NW`erly behind the front.

Given our latest wind forecast and limited fetch due to extensive
ice cover on Lake Erie, waves are likely to be 3 feet or less
through this Monday. Small Craft Advisory issuance remains suspended
until further notice for nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Ripley,
NY due to extensive ice cover.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Saunders
NEAR TERM...Iverson/Saunders
SHORT TERM...Jaszka
LONG TERM...Jaszka
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...Jaszka