Valley City, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

709
FXUS63 KFGF 171501
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1001 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 40% chance for weak thunderstorms this afternoon,
  mainly within Minnesota.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1001 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Updated POPs to reflect the current rain moving across the
Devils Lake Basin and northern Red River Valley this morning. We
are watching as the surface low tracks up through SD and MN this
morning and afternoon bringing sufficient lift and moisture to
parts of west central Minnesota. Latest CAMS have thunderstorm
potential developing around 12pm through 4pm, with elevated
instability. Small hail looks to be the primary hazard in the
strongest of storms. Some uncertainties arise with the
organization of the storms, instability, and strength of the
updrafts to support hail. Otherwise, we are looking at a cooler
day then yesterday, with highs in the 40s to lower 50s this
afternoon. Winds will continue to be breezy out of the north
throughout the day, with gusts approaching 40 mph on an
isolated basis. Winds remain breezy after the passage of a cold
front overnight, with cooler temperatures expected tomorrow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

...Synopsis...

Broad and expansive upper troughing is viewable on water vapor
satellite imagery extending from central Canada southwest into
the northern High Plains and Great Basin. Additionally, there is
an upper, cut off low off of the southern California coast. This
latter feature will help entice a more notable, embedded
shortwave trough over the Northern Rockies southward today
through Friday, helping keep overall upper troughing in a
positively tilted orientation. Energy moving through the lee of
the positively tilted trough is forecast to move over the
Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, helping provide forcing for
ascent to our area.

At the surface, a front is moving through the eastern Dakotas,
and will eventually push into Minnesota by this afternoon. This
will be the catalyst for thunderstorm chances this afternoon
(more details found below).

Ensemble guidance is strongly suggesting the presence of
frontogenesis to move over our area juxtaposed with subtle
impulses as well as the surface trough/front. This indicates the
likelihood of rain bands to move southwest to northeast over our
area, with locations like central and northern Red River Valley
into northwest Minnesota holding relatively best chance of
seeing banded rainfall. Most likely amounts under this will
result in 0.25 - 0.75 inches of rainfall. Forcing for ascent
wanes tonight, ending widespread rain chances.

Behind the surface front this afternoon, daytime mixing will
help tap into gusty north winds, particularly in the southern
Red River Valley into west-central Minnesota where gusts to 35
mph are forecast.

As broad upper troughing migrates east, cooler air will continue
to be reinforced feeding into our area. This will make for a
blustery Friday with temperatures not exceeding 50 and continued
breezy northerly winds, contributing to wind chills near and
below freezing. Reinforced cooler air mass over the area and
surface high pressure building into the region will also allow
for cold Saturday morning with lows in the 20s, potentially into
the teens within North Dakota.

Temperatures begin to rebound into next week as flow aloft turns
more zonal to southwesterly, with potential for progressive wave
pattern to set up for next week. Ensembles highlight Monday and
Tuesday, and then again late next week with next chance for
appreciable rain chances, including potential to see
thunderstorms, although this is low in confidence.


...Thunderstorm chances this afternoon...

Near the surface front heading into Minnesota by early
afternoon, increasing temperatures and moisture overrunning the
front underneath marginally steep lapse rates will contribute
to instability aloft. This combined with increasing forcing for
ascent into the area, there introduces around a 40% chance to
see thunderstorms. Based on current and forecast location of the
front, locations closer to central Minnesota hold relatively
best chance to see thunderstorms.

Some convective allowing models indicate potential to see
upwards of 1000 J/kg of instability atop a stable and
relatively cool lower levels behind/west of the front.
Additionally, increased flow aloft near the upper portions of
the updraft region will help promote venting/tilting of
updrafts. These factors (and potentially saturated updraft
environment) will introduce a low, but present chance for
stronger thunderstorms to produce hail. While hail is more
likely to be small/sub-severe, there could be large
accumulations of it and/or instances where hail could reach
severe criteria - contingent on updrafts utilizing all available
instability and shear aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 636 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Look for increasing cloud cover across the area today with VFR
conditions this morning. MVFR ceilings are expected to develop
as rain chances increase from west to east later this morning
into the midday period. A few thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon, primarily south and east of KFAR. Winds are expected
to continue out of the north, increasing into the range of 10 to
15 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. The highest gusts will
immediately follow a frontal passage this morning into the early
afternoon.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Spender
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...Lynch