Mayville, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

166
FXUS63 KFGF 210432
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1132 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical fire weather in northwest Minnesota Thursday
  through Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1003 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

Allowed the red flag warning drop as planned at 9pm thorugh RH
remains low near 20 percent in the previously warned area with
winds still elevated but sub RFW criteria. These near critical
conditions will persist into the overnight with RH unlikely to
climb above 50 percent before falling again with the diurnal
cycle tomorrow morning.

UPDATE
Issued at 637 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

With some drier air working in on the NE side of the
deformation shield currently seeing a break in precip across
for NE North Dakota and NW Minnesota with rain expected to
return to these areas overnight but only bring an additional
tenth or two. For areas with ongoing rain intermittent lighter
periods or even breaks are likely over the next 24 hours but
still expecting another half inch or so. As for the red Flag
conditions in north central Minnesota RH will improve by
midnight over 30 percent, with winds staying easterly and
elevated near current levels through the night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

...Synopsis...

A persistent 300mb jet continues to divide the CONUS, with cooler
temperatures across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest and
warmer temps to the south. Strong, nearly zonal, H5 flow is
expected to remain in place through late this week, with a
period of brief ridge building into Central Canada as we head
into Friday and the Weekend. This pattern looks to be a
continuation of a cut off omega block to our north, with strong
mid level flow to the south. This will serve to dry things out
this weekend, but prevent temps from climbing as is usually
expected with strong H5 ridging. For Wednesday, high
temperatures will be very similar to today, with 40s across much
of the area and 50s in parts of northwest Minnesota. More
widespread 60s are expected Thursday and Friday, with perhaps
some 70s possible for Saturday and Sunday. Rain chances are in
the forecast in response to a slow moving and weak upper low.
Best chances for precipitation will be in southeast North
Dakota.

...Near Critical to Critical Fire Weather Today...

For portions of northwest Minnesota, Red Flag conditions remain
possible this afternoon and early evening. Persistent cloud cover is
inhibiting heating from supporting more widespread low RH values;
however, a window of several hours remains possible where conditions
are at least minimally supported. RH near Lake of the Woods is
around 30 percent this afternoon, and is slowly falling. Winds range
from 15 to 25 mph with isolated gusts upwards of 35 mph. The RH will
continue to fall into the 20 to 25 percent range for a few hours
late this afternoon or early evening.

...Near Critical Fire Weather Possible Thu through Sun...

Dry air remains in place across northwest Minnesota through at least
Sunday. With afternoon temps in the 60s to low 70s from Thursday
through Sunday, we could see RH in the 20 to 30 percent range. Winds
during the period look to remain somewhat lower, generally less than
15 mph.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

MVFR conditions are becoming widespread with IFR conditions moving
into DVL with a low chance of IFR at FAR before between now and 18z.
The general light nature of the rain will prevent much in the way of
vis reductions with minimal other aviation impacts with winds
staying east at about 10kts gusting as high as 20kts. Look for
improving cigs by 18z-00z at all sites with the end of the rain in
the afternoon.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...TT