Mayville, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

019
FXUS63 KFGF 231137
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
537 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A long duration light snow event is expected Saturday night
  through Monday mainly north of highway 200, which may mix at
  times with freezing drizzle Saturday night into Sunday.

- Colder air by Thursday to Saturday next week combines with
  northwest winds for sub zero wind chills.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 537 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Still have a few echoes on radar that are quickly streaming to
the east southeast. Otherwise there is a large area of stratus
over the northern RRV that is dropping southward. So today
there may be some breaks of sun scattered around, but there will
be more clouds than sun.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

...Synopsis...

The regional radar has been showing echoes moving east-southeast
across the state of North Dakota for the past few hours. This
activity seems to be associated with weak 700mb warm advection
and frontogenesis. As the activity was over the Bismarck area
earlier, it did produce light snow at the surface. However, the
forcing seems to weaken as it continues to push east-southeast
into southeast North Dakota, and have not seen any observations
in this area reporting anything at the surface. Weak 500mb
ridging will slide across the FA today, before the next 500mb
closed low tracks along the Canadian border for Saturday night
through Monday. After this, there could be a few chances for
flurries or a dusting of light snow, but the main story will be
the transition to a colder airmass for the Thanksgiving holiday
weekend.

...Saturday night through Monday...

Have been monitoring this system for a few days now. Several
days ago, probabilities were fairly good for several inches of
snow north of the highway 200 corridor, but best along the
Canadian border. Since then, probabilities have really dropped
across this FA, with the higher ones moving north of Canadian
border into southern Manitoba. Therefore south of the border in
this FA, the event is a much weaker one, but it could still
provide some minor impacts. This would be the chance for the
light snow to mix with freezing drizzle Saturday night through
Sunday (north of the highway 200 corridor). The upper jet seems
to be in a favorable position to produce some lift, with some
weak 850mb warm advection also moving through. The surface flow
through most of this period looks to be light easterly and the
low layers remain saturated. Will have to keep an eye on this
potential.

...Thursday to Saturday...

For the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, there could be a few shots
of flurries or very light snow, but there are no big systems on
the horizon. The main story remains the bout of colder air
moving down into the FA. When adding in steady 10 to 20 mph
northwest winds at times, wind chills drop below zero at times.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 537 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

KBJI/KTVF have been under a large area of stratus overnight.
Satellite imagery shows a large area of mid level clouds pushing
into Minnesota early this morning. Because of this, can see the
low stratus over the northern RRV sinking southward. It looks
like this will drop southward and affect KGFK within another
hour or so, and KFAR a bit later. Confidence is not that great
however, as both KGFK/KFAR look to be on the edge of this cloud
mass, so they could be SCT or BKN at times. With the weak flow
today, am leaning more on the pessimistic side. If the clouds
stay more on the SCT side, or stay on the eastern side of the
Red River Valley, later shifts can amend. Going into tonight, it
looks like the clouds will remain socked in, with a light east-
northeast flow.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon/MM
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...Godon/MM