Garrison, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

761
FXUS63 KBIS 080525
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1225 AM CDT Tue Apr 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances (20 to 40 percent) for rain showers today and
  Wednesday.

- Near critical fire weather conditions are possible across the
  southwest and south central Wednesday.

- Windy conditions are expected both Wednesday and Thursday.

- Above normal temperatures and breezy conditions favored for
  the second half of the week through the weekend, with the
  warmest temperatures expected Friday and Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Apr 8 2025

Clear conditions are found across western and central North
Dakota at the time of this late evening update. Moderate
southeasterly winds, with speeds up to 15 MPH and gusts up to 30
MPH, persist across both the west and along the coteau. These
winds are anticipated to linger overnight, turning to become
more southerly through the mid morning. No adjustments to the
forecast were performed with this update, as it remains on
track.

UPDATE
Issued at 942 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

A quiet evening continues across western and central North
Dakota. Just freshened up sky cover in the gridded forecast
through 12z with the latest NBM guidance. Otherwise, no updates
were needed.

UPDATE
Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Breezy southeast winds continue across much of the west and
portions of the central. Winds will relax a bit overnight, but
it may remain a bit breezy across the northwest. No major
changes were needed for this update. Just blended in the latest
observations to the going forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Across western and central North Dakota, we see clear skies,
with some slightly breezy southeasterly winds, driven mostly by
surface high pressure positioned to our northeast. Aloft,
ridging is nudging into the west, with a substantial trough to
our east across the Great Lakes. The strongest winds are across
the west, with sustained 15-20 mph speeds expected, along with
some gusts up to around 25 mph. As a result of the cold front
last night, highs in the James River Valley and Turtle Mountains
will remain in the mid 30s, while the far west will extend into
the mid to upper 50s. Cooler temperatures will linger tonight,
with lows ranging from the upper teens in the east to the mid
30s west.

Tuesday sees the arrival of a weak shortwave, bringing about a
chance (roughly 20 to 40 percent) for some light rain showers,
moving quickly from west to east during the early morning and
daytime hours. As the aforementioned surface high gets pushed
off to the east, a weaker surface pressure gradient sets up
across our area, helping keep winds a bit lower than today.
Highs begin to increase a bit, in the mid 40s east to mid 60s
west, while overnight lows generally remain just at or slightly
above freezing.

A more substantial trough will dig across the state Wednesday,
bringing a second round of light rain showers. A bit of
instability will be present, allowing for the potential for a
few rumbles of thunder here and there. QPF remains rather low
with these rain showers as well, which also leads to concerns
with regards to fire weather. Northwesterly sustained winds
around 25 to 30 mph will be present, strongest across the
southwest, while relative humidity values range from 25 to 30
percent. As a result, near critical fire weather conditions will
be present for much of the southwest and south central. If
conditions continue to trend towards further deterioration, then
we`ll need to evaluate concerns with regards to both fire
weather and strong winds. Highs are generally expected to be in
the 50s and lower 60s, with similar temperatures on Thursday.

Thursday and Friday will be drier, as upper level ridging
builds across the state. Daily breezy conditions are expected in
the afternoon and evening during peak mixing hours. Relative
humidities will also decrease substantially into the 20 to 25
percent range across much of the west, though generally, the
strongest winds each day will be displaced from the lowest
relative humidities. Near critical fire weather conditions are
certainly a possibility. The axis of the mid-level thermal ridge
will move through North Dakota Friday and Saturday, where highs
may breach the 70 degree threshold across the south, with high
60s elsewhere. Long range guidance suggests a deep trough
digging into the west by Sunday, bringing about the next few
chances for rain, as well as slightly cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Apr 8 2025

VFR ceilings and visibility are anticipated at all terminals
throughout the 06Z TAF period. This afternoon, mid level clouds
and low chances for rain sweep from west to east across North
Dakota. With the highest confidence found across the north this
afternoon, have opted to include a PROB30 group for -RA for the
terminals of KXWA and KMOT with this update. Chances at other
terminals remain too low to include any mention of precipitation
at this time. Gusty southeast winds will linger overnight,
shifting to become southerly through the morning hours. The
passage of a cold front this afternoon will then shift winds out
of the northwest, becoming more west southwesterly through the
end of the TAF period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Adam/ZH
DISCUSSION...Besson
AVIATION...Adam