Dickinson, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

519
FXUS63 KBIS 191428
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
928 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The active pattern continues, with periodic chances for
  showers and thunderstorms through the rest of the week and
  into the weekend.

- Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible
  through the weekend.

- Temperatures will warm up to above normal today through
  Saturday, before cooling down to start next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 927 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Main update was to SKY cover to account for an area of mid level
alto CU over western North Dakota pushing east. All other
weather elements are on track.


UPDATE
Issued at 629 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

All convection has moved out of the county warning area this
morning. Some patchy ground fog is being reported but will
dissipate quickly as the sun rises. No updates needed at this
time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 416 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

An upper level ridge over the Pacific Northwest will begin to
push over the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains by the
end of this week. Southerly return flow will begin to advect 60
dew points back into the region this afternoon and evening.
High temperatures are forecast to warm into the 80s to lower 90s
which will lead to increased instability across the region. The
HREF has SBCAPE around 1500 j/kg and 50-55 kts of 0-6 km wind
shear which would support supercell development. The only
thing holding back severe weather today is the lack of a forcing
mechanism to break the cap during the afternoon. Some of the
CAMs have the western half of the state breaking the cap by
reaching convective temperature this afternoon. Also, any
remnant boundaries from yesterday`s convection could help
initiate storms as well. A shortwave is eject over southern
Saskatchewan this afternoon initiating storms in Canada. The
CAMs have these super cells moving into the northern half of the
state where the slight risk is this evening. Now these storms
will likely interact with the low level jet turning into an MCS
later tonight, mostly likely out of our area by then.

CSU machine learning program and NSSL machine learning severe
probability program are both picking up on strong signal
tomorrow and Saturday for severe weather. Another day of
temperatures in the 80s to lower 90s and dew points in the 60s
will lead to increased instability. Tomorrow the HREF has around
1500-2500 j/kg of SBCAPE and 50-60 kts of 0-6 km wind shear.
This environment could support supercells and even a nocturnal
MCS. An upper level shortwave is forecast to move through the
region tomorrow afternoon, providing a lifting mechanism, as a
broad trough dig across the Pacific Northwest. Thus, most of
North Dakota is in a hatched hail and hatched wind for tomorrow.
The main hazards are large hail up to tennis ball sized and
damaging winds up to 70 mph. If any supercells become surface
based there is a chance for a tornado or 2. The greatest
probability for a tornado is in south central to the southeast
where the higher dew points and helicity are. Warming
temperatures aloft will result in increased capping along the
warm sector. Thus, the hold up for tomorrow`s convection is if
the strong cap could be broken by the afternoon and evening, it
is likely the evening and overnight convection will still occur
due to the shortwave passing through the state and low level
jet enhancing any remnant convection.

Saturday there is another shot for severe weather as morning
convection could still continuing from Friday night. Another
round of afternoon convection is possible, but there is still
some uncertainty of the upper level pattern as a broad trough
digs across the Northern Rockies.

An upper level low is forecast to move through the region Sunday
bringing forth a shot of board scale precipitation across the
state. In addition this trough could bring some windy conditions
Sunday. Temperatures are forecast to cool off next week into the
60 to 70s with daily chances of precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 629 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours. There is
a chance of thunderstorms developing this afternoon, however the
models are all over the place when it comes to timing and
location. Therefore TS was left out of the TAF for now until
confidence increases. Severe weather is possible this afternoon
and evening with the main hazards gusty erratic winds and large
hail. Winds will remain out of the east to southwest this
afternoon.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Johnson