Bismarck, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

338
FXUS63 KBIS 080830
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
330 AM CDT Tue Apr 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances (20 to 40 percent) for rain showers today and
  Wednesday.

- Near critical fire weather conditions are possible across the
  southwest and south central Wednesday.

- Windy conditions are expected both Wednesday and Thursday.

- Above normal temperatures and breezy conditions favored for
  the second half of the week through the weekend, with the
  warmest temperatures expected Friday and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Apr 8 2025

A transient upper level ridge is found over the northern Plains
this morning, rapidly being displaced eastward by an incoming
shortwave. Increasing cloud-cover is found as this wave pushes
into our western counties. Low to medium chances (20 to 40%) for
light rain are expected to develop across the west later this
morning along a weak warm front associated with this shortwave,
lifting eastward through the late evening. The highest chances
for measurable precipitation for this initial push of rain is
across the west, with accumulations up to around 0.05"
anticipated at most. An isolated rumble of thunder or two is
not impossible in the southwest late this afternoon, though the
threat of severe weather remains low to non-existent. Regarding
winds, gusty south winds with speeds up to around 15 MPH and
gusts up to 25 MPH have persisted overnight as a moderate
pressure gradient has continued to shift eastward ahead of a
surface low associated with the incoming shortwave. Winds are
then expected to turn northwesterly as the front crosses the
forecast area this afternoon, becoming gusty with speeds up to
20 MPH and gusts up to 30 MPH across our western counties. The
warming trend across the northern Plains continues today as the
influence of the ridge lingers this afternoon, with highs
forecast from the the upper 40s across the east up to lower to
mid 60s west.

Another round of precipitation is then expected on Wednesday as
the upper level trough crossing the northern Plains closes off
into a stacked low during the morning. Low to moderate chances
(25 to 45 percent) are maximized across the north Wednesday
afternoon, though do stretch across much of the forecast area
before it exits to east through the late evening and overnight
period. Model MUCAPE values across western and central North
Dakota Wednesday afternoon and evening also being to peak into
the 200-300 J/KG range, indicating that few rumbles of thunder
are again possible during this period, though widespread
convection is not current anticipated and the severe threat is
very limited. Total QPF during this period are again expected to
be somewhat limited, with measurable amounts of up to a few
tenths of an inch expected mainly north of Highway 200. Of note
is that precipitation is not expected to reach into the far
southwest and portions of the south central on Wednesday, which
does have some potential fire weather ramifications. With
another warm day on tap Wednesday, with highs forecast broadly
in the mid 50s to lower 60s, minimum relative humidities in the
far southwest are expected to drop into the 25 to 30 percent
range. With windy conditions developing in the afternoon as the
system cross through the northern Plains, with sustained speeds
up to 30 MPH and gusts up to 40 MPH out of the northwest, a
brief period of near critical fire weather conditions are
possible over portions of southwestern and south central North
Dakota.

Dry weather is then anticipated through the remainder of the
workweek as robust upper level ridging settles over the northern
Plains. With this pattern, seasonably warm weather with highs
peaking into the 60s and lower 70s is expected across the
forecast area both Friday and Saturday. Widespread breezy
conditions can also be anticipated through Friday as a tight
pressure gradient remains draped across the Great Plains. A
pattern shift is then anticipated as we head into Sunday as deep
troughing is progged to sweep out of western Canada into the
central CONUS, reintroducing near to slightly below normal
highs in the 40s and 50s through early next week. This trough
will also represent our next opportunity for widespread
precipitation, with the latest ensemble advertising medium
chances (40-60%) across the forecast area early Sunday through
at least late Monday. While mainly rain can be expected during
the daytime hours, the cooler weather does introduce the
possibility for snow to become mixed in during the overnight
period. The potential for any amount of measurable snow and thus
winter impacts currently appears to be limited, but we will
continue to monitor forecast trends.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Apr 8 2025

VFR ceilings and visibility are anticipated at all terminals
throughout the 06Z TAF period. Later this morning, mid level
clouds and low chances for rain sweep from west to east across
North Dakota through the day. With the highest confidence found
across the north this afternoon, have opted to include a PROB30
group for -RA for the terminals of KXWA and KMOT with this
update. Chances at other terminals remain too low to include any
mention of precipitation at this time. Gusty southeast winds
will linger overnight, shifting to become southerly through the
morning hours. The passage of a cold front this afternoon will
then shift winds out of the northwest, becoming more west
southwesterly through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Adam
AVIATION...Adam