Bismarck, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

928
FXUS63 KBIS 180950
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
350 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Life threatening wind chills are expected today through
  Tuesday morning, coldest Sunday night through Monday morning
  (as low as 55 below zero).

- After the MLK holiday weekend, temperatures will trend warmer
  back to near normal Tuesday and through the remainder of next
  week.

- There is a 20 to 40 percent chance of light snow Tuesday
  night through Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

Currently, north/northwest flow aloft with upper level low
pressure over Hudson Bay and a large scale long wave trough over
much of North America. Large area of surface low pressure over
Alberta with continued pressure rises across the Northern
Plains, which continues to result in a steady and sometimes
breezy northwest wind. Subtle CAA early this morning, with
temperatures continuing to drop towards and below zero. Wind
chills now ranging from 15 below to 25 below zero.

Another surge of Arctic air/CAA will push south into the
Northern Plains this morning and afternoon, as an embedded wave
rotates southward within the upper trough. Result will be
temperatures remain steady or dropping from this morning,
coupled with another breezy northwest wind today. This overall
pattern repeats itself later this weekend and early next week,
maintaining/reinforcing the Arctic airmass over the Dakotas.
The coldest period is still expected Sunday-Monday, when the
core of the Arctic airmass moves south into the Northern
Plains/Upper Midwest. This is when we expect a prolonged period
of well below zero temperatures, with overnight lows both
Sunday and Monday night nearing 30 below across the north and 20
below south. Coupled with the very cold temperatures, a steady
northwest breeze through the MLK holiday weekend will result in
life threatening winds chills. Cold weather headlines are in
place for the entire region today through Tuesday morning.

Pattern change is still expected to take place starting on
Tuesday, when the upper trough moves farther east into the
eastern CONUS and a progressive northwest flow pattern develops
over the region. This will result in temperatures moderating
closer to average (highs in the low/mid 20s, lows in the single
digits above). In addition, precipitation chances return Tuesday
night through Wednesday, with models strongly hinting at a
clipper system/mid level trough moving southeast across North
Dakota. Right now NBM POPs are maxing out at 40 percent, and
would expect this to increase as we get closer to this time
period. Could be an interesting period with gusty winds likely
accompanying snow chances.

Thereafter, ensembles and NBM generally support a continued
northwest flow pattern over the north central CONUS through the
rest of the week and following weekend. This pattern would
support continued near average temperatures and periodic
precipitation chances associated with any wave/weather
disturbance near our region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 110 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

MVFR ceilings persist across parts of the region early this
morning, mainly across southern North Dakota with mainly VFR
conditions north. Another round of MVFR ceilings is likely to
affect all terminals during the day Saturday. Northwest winds
will remain gusty throughout the forecast period, with a bit of
lull this morning.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Tuesday for NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.
Cold Weather Advisory from noon CST /11 AM MST/ today to noon
CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday for NDZ017>020-031>034-040>045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...NH