Wilmington, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

468
FXUS62 KILM 180905
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
405 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will bring milder temperatures and some rain back
to the Carolinas this weekend. Cold frontal passage Sun night
followed by Arctic high pressure returning for much of the
upcoming week with bone chilling temperatures expected. In
addition, there is an increasing potential for some wintry
precipitation Tue into Wed and possibly again toward the end of
the work-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Shortwave riding across the deep South will produce weak sfc
low as it moves into the Southeast waters. This low will track
up in the offshore waters on Sat and then another deeper
shortwave will push eastward through Sat night with sfc low
moving up through the Carolinas early Sun. Therefore, expect 2
waves of pcp. Initially rain will spread over the area through
this morning. Should see a break in pcp and possibly break in
the clouds, especially inland through Sat aftn before next chc
of pcp comes Sat night ahead of cold front. Low pressure will
move off the coast Sun aftn with pcp coming to an end as winds
veer to the west bringing much drier and colder air into the
area.

The overnight lows were reached before midnight with temps
steady or rising slightly into mid 30s to 40s at the coast with
clouds thickening through early this morning. Onshore winds
this morning will shift around to the SW to W with WAA helping
to push temps up into the mid to upper 50s today. Continued WAA
through tonight will keep lows above normal, in the mid to upper
40s most places.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Broad sfc low overhead to start Sun, will begin to intensify and
lift to the NE as a modest 5h s/w trof crosses the NC-VA
Appalachians and interacts and further intensifies the sfc low
that is progged to be off DELMARVA Coast by late Sun afternoon.
Max Temps Sun will run up to 10 degrees above normal, yes you
read that correctly! The low`s attendant cold front will sweep
across the FA Sun evening and may be accompanied with a few
showers. A piece of that 1050mb Arctic high will integrate
southeastward to the Mid-Mississippi River Valley and the
Southeast States late tonight thru Mon night. This aided by the
persistent and amplified longwave upper trof having been
established across the Eastern half of the U.S. for much of this
month. Blustery conditions prevail Sun night with temps falling
into the 20s with upper teens for wind chill,s, just shy of a
cold weather advisory. Northerly winds to remain active for the
remainder of this period. Mondays highs will struggle into the
mid to upper 30s, with resulting wind chills around 20. Mon
night lows in the mid to upper teens with wind chills around 10
to lower teens, which will require a cold weather advisory.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Arctic air across the area to persist through Friday, peaking
its intensity (coldest temps) Tue thru Thu. Threat for wintry
pcpn across the entire ILM CWA Tue into Wed. Currently, the
baroclinic zone offshore will retrograde to the west as a mid-
level s/w trof emerges from the Rockies midday Tue and
progresses toward the SE States Coast by Fri morning. At this
point it remains positively tilted, possibly going neutral
during Wed as it pushes off the SE States Coast. At this point,
it would mean mstly snow event with hiest POPs at the coast,
trailing off-some as one progresses west of I-95. A warm nose in
the lower levels of the atm, noted in model soundings and
persistent in time height displays for Tue evening. This could
result in a mixture with sleet involved. If the incoming mid-
level s/w trof negatively tilts when reaches the SE Coast, this
scenario would lead to more of a wintry mixture across the FA,
not just the immediate coast. Basically, we are saying,
predominate pcpn type should remain as snow but if that lows
track along the baroclinic zone is closer to the coast (neg
tilted upper trof) then mild air aloft will cause a wintry
mixture across the area. The uncertainty of how far inland this
mixture will reach is another uncertainty. And then of course,
when time dictates, how much snow will fall, what the water
equivalent is, what snow ratio to address and etc.

Will have a brief reprieve from wintry weather late Wed thru
late Thu, but the Arctic air will remain entrenched across the
FA with continued well below normal temps. Any wintry pcpn that
falls, will not be quickly melting any time soon. For Thu night
into Fri, a coastal trof offshore and parallel to the coastline
pushes to the coast but does not push onshore. Overrunning
moisture to produce light pcpn across the FA, in the form of
mainly freezing rain given the warm air aloft exhibited by the
models. Will only advertise low chance POPs at this time given
how far out in time this occurs.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sub-VFR conditions will settle in between 14 to 16z with
period of IFR to LIFR ceilings Sat into Sat night with
intermittent rain as a couple of waves of low pressure move
up the Southeast coast. Very light easterly flow will become
more W-SW through Sat, increasing only to around 5 kts or so.

Extended Outlook...Flight restrictions expected with rain
and a cold front through the remainder of the weekend. VFR
returns late Sunday night through early Tuesday. Next chance
for flight restrictions comes late Tuesday into Wednesday,
where a Gulf low may bring wintry precipitation to the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Light onshore flow early this morning will
come around to the W to SW as wave of low pressure moves up the
coast and cold front approaches the Carolinas from the NW.
winds will remain in the 5 to 10 kt range through tonight with
seas less than 3 ft increasing only slightly with southerly push
into tonight. Further increase will come into Sunday as winds
increase.


Sunday through Wednesday night...
SCA will start off this period, mainly due to elevated seas
bleeding in from offshore early Sun. A cfp will occur early Sun
evening followed by SCA threshold SW to W winds becoming NW-N as
Arctic air spills across the local waters. Winds will abate some
during Mon after that initial surge. With an offshore wind
trajectory Mon thru Mon night, seas will subside-some, ranging
lowest near shore and highest 20 nm out. The baroclinic zone
offshore from the SE States, retrogrades to the west with
eventual sfc low development along it Tue thru Wed. A rather
large pinched gradient to develop between the offshore bzone and
eventual low pressure, and the strong Arctic high centered
across the inland SE States. Models indicate possible SCA early
Tue transitioning to Gales during Tue thru midday Wed with wind
directions mainly Northerly. A transition to SCA Wed night with
seas slow to subside. Will see reduced vsby to 1nm or less
at times in pcpn, some of it wintry especially near shore. Seas
may peak 10+ ft Tue night into early Wed.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 6 AM EST Monday for
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...DCH/RGZ