Salisbury, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

779
FXUS62 KGSP 130204
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1004 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move slowly northeast across the Tennessee River
Valley tonight and Tuesday then over the Ohio River Valley in mid
week.  Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue across our
region through Tuesday with the heavy rain resulting in some
flooding through tonight, mainly over the eastern side of the
mountains. Drier high pressure moves over our area Thursday then a
cold front stalls to our north for the weekend with scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms and above normal temperatures
across our region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 945 PM: Scattered to numerous showers and isolated/scattered
thunderstorms linger across the CWA this evening, as stacked low
pressure system continues to drift across the Deep South. As the
upper trough axis associated with this low pivots toward the
Carolinas tonight...coverage of showers and storms is forecast to
steadily diminish from the southwest...with a relative back edge to
the higher concentration of convection currently noted from Middle
Tennessee through far southwest NC and down the Savannah River
Valley. The bulk of the convective activity is forecast to push into
the northeast third of the CWA by 06Z...and we should be more or
less done by 09Z. In the interim...a blob of cold pool-driven
convection (deviating significantly from the mean flow) producing
torrential rainfall continues to propagate NE across the lower SC
Piedmont...and this could cause some drainage issues in the urban
areas from Greenwood and Laurens...and perhaps eventually
Spartanburg/Union/Gaffney over the next few hours.

Otherwise, the main concern continues to be the flash flooding
potential along the Blue Ridge, as numerous showers and a few
thunderstorms continue to stream over these areas...although
coverage has diminished from earlier this evening. The main area of
concern will be the eastern escarpment...especially north of I-40,
where 24-hour precip amounts are generally in the 3 to 5 inch range
with locally higher totals. This accumulation has been rather
steady, and Flood Warnings are in effect for more duration-type
rises. However, the potential still exists for flooding to evolve
into localized flashier episodes if some of the ongoing heavier
showers begin training over the same locations. The Flash Flood
Watch will be allowed to continue...although we can probably start
trimming the southwest edge in the next 1-2 hours.

Otherwise, low level winds will steadily veer tonight as the upper
low lifts north and the trough axis nears. This will weaken the
moisture flux along with upslope lift. Shear parameters will
continue to steadily diminish...and the threat for tornadoes is more
or less done. PWATs decline from west to east between approx.
03z-09z tonight as the dry slot expands over the area. The heavy
rain threat likely will taper off in that timeframe as well. There
won`t be much of a wedge erosion mechanism, so whatever is left
could remain into morning until diurnal insolation can work to that
effect. The closed portion of the 500mb low will drift north over
TN/KY by that time, so we will see 700-500mb lapse rates increase to
near 7C/km during peak heating Tuesday. Profiles will not be
saturated thru a deep layer like today/tonight, but should be
supportive of deep updrafts. For now have kept PoPs mostly in the
scattered to low likely range (the latter over the mountains). Can`t
completely rule out severe weather, with 0-6km shear of 30+ kt
supportive of multicells producing a wind or marginally severe hail
threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1225 PM Monday: The upper low will be departing from the area
at the beginning of the short range period with ridging asserting
itself across the region by Thursday. This will lead to a shift in
the low level flow to more westerly/southwesterly and more diurnal
showers/storms each day with overall lighter rainfall amounts. High
temperatures are expected to be around normal on Wednesday climbing
to several degrees above normal on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1235 PM Monday: The upper ridging pattern will shift quickly
to the east by Friday and then off the coast by the weekend. An
upper low over the Great Lakes states will create an active storm
pattern across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys for Friday into the
weekend. A northwest flow pattern that will set up between the low
and ridging to our southwest, causing some of these storms to make a
run at our area during the extended period. Thus, will maintain the
chance of showers/storms through the extended period.

High temperatures through the extended period look to average around
5 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: With drier air aloft pushing in from the west
this evening, coverage of showers has decreased across the Terminal
Forecast Area. However, intensity of convection has increased across
portions of upstate SC...as ample instability and low level moisture
persists. Prob30s for TSRA are still warranted at most sites through
about 06Z...while a tempo for TSRA lingers at KAND through 02Z.
Otherwise, tempo SHRA will continue for the next few hours...
tapering to VCSH shortly after midnight. Cigs are primarily IFR
early this evening...and are expected to settle to 003-005 at all
sites by around midnight. LIFR cigs will linger until late morning
or so...with further improvement to VFR expected by mid-afternoon.
Generally MVFR/IFR visby is expected during the overnight...but
can`t rule out periods of lower visby in light of the drying aloft.
Instability and moisture will remain sufficient to support diurnal
convection Tue afternoon and evening, but coverage of showers and
storms will be considerably less than today. Prob30s for TSRA are
carried at all sites during the afternoon. General ESE winds at
around 10 kts this evening will steadily diminish through the night.
Winds are expected to become light southerly Tue afternoon.

Outlook: Chances for diurnal scattered showers and storms will
continue through the week. The potential for organized complexes of
thunderstorms to move into the area from the TN and OH Valley will
increase late in the week into the weekend...although much
uncertainty surrounds timing and track of these complexes. Morning
fog and low stratus will be possible each morning...primarily in the
mountain valleys and in areas that receive appreciable rainfall the
previous afternoon/evening.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ033-035-049-050-
     063>065-501>510.
SC...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for SCZ102-103.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JDL/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...SCW
LONG TERM...SCW
AVIATION...JDL