New Bern, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

648
FXUS62 KMHX 030146
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
946 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High shifts offshore today and a weak warm front will lift
through the area tonight. High pressure then remains anchored
offshore through the end of the week and into the first half of
the weekend. The next cold front then impacts the region late
this weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 945 PM Wednesday...Warm front, per latest analysis, has
now lifted north across the area with widespread southeasterly
flow across eastern NC this hour and plenty of low clouds in
well saturated low levels. Low clouds and steady southerly winds
will keep conditoins very mild tonight with lows in the low to
mid 60s, and may even see some patchy drizzle in the early
morning. Prior forecast is in good shape and no changes were
offered this update.

&&

.SHORT TERM /2 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
As of 3 PM Wed...High pressure centered off the southeast coast
will strengthen and increase heights over ENC. Near-record
highs in the mid- to upper-80s across the coastal plain and mid-
to upper-70s across the Outer Banks are expected (see Climate
Section below). Light isolated showers are possible across the
area, but a lack of forcing should keep accumulations to a
few hundreths at best.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 320 AM Wed...

Key Messages: - Near Record High Temperatures expected on Thursday
and Friday

Thursday night through Sunday...No real change to the forecast
through Sunday as upper ridging remains in place across the
Eastern Seaboard into this weekend. Upper flow becomes amplified
this weekend as well as a deepening positively tilted upper
trough moves into the Plains. This trough then tracks E`wards
and will eventually become centered over the Eastern Seaboard
early next week. Broad upper trough then remains over the
Eastern Seaboard through much of next week. High pressure
ridging in the mid levels and at the surface becomes entrenched
offshore and moves little into this weekend. This will continue
to promote SW`rly flow at the mid levels and at the surface
bringing a steady WAA regime to ENC, thus allowing temps to soar
well above normal Thurs through Sun with highs climbing well
into the 80s inland (potentially reaching the low 90s on Fri,
Sat, and Sun) and mid to upper 70s along the beaches. This is
rather anomalous for the time of year with ECMWF EFI values
close to the 90th+ percentile for max temps this weekend and
NAFES surface and 850 mb temp anomolies generally at 1-2 SD
above normal. Overnight lows will also be well above average,
with temps forecast to drop only as far as the mid-to-upper 60s
Thursday-Saturday nights. Forecast continues to show temps to
near record Highs for early April (see "Climate Section" for
more information). While we will likely remain mo dry across ENC
through the end of the workweek a weak mid level shortwave that
will be tracking along the northern periphery of the mid level
ridging may bring some isolated showers to portions of ENC on
Thurs, mainly along the OBX and offshore waters.

A backdoor cold front stalls near the NC/VA border Friday night and
then lifts N`wards as a warm front on Sat. This front may bring a
few light showers and a rumble of thunder or two to the region,
mainly north of Hwy 264 which is where I have kept SChc to Chc PoPs
in place. We dry out Sat into Sun as continued WAA remains in place
out ahead of an approaching cold front.

Monday through midweek next week... Next significant cold front then
approaches and tracks across the region Sunday night into Monday as
strengthening surface low moves through the Mid-Atlantic. Guidance
has come into better agreement over the last few days and thus
confidence in when the best chances to see rain have increased as
well. Given the latest trends, started to bring shower and
isolated thunderstorm activity into the Coastal Plain Sunday
afternoon and evening with this activity spreading E`wards
overnight towards the coast. Highest chances to see rain looks
to be late overnight Sun into Mon morning and have thus
increased PoP`s to likely during this timeframe. Cold front
pushes offshore by Mon evening with a much cooler and drier
airmass filtering in behind this front as high pressure builds
in from the north and west on Tue. Temps knock down closer to
just below normal by Tue and remain that way through midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 00z Fri/...
As of 720 PM Wed...MVFR conditions are overspreading all of
eastern NC tonight as a warm front gradually lifts across the
region overnight. Increasing low- level moisture is expected as
winds turn southerly behind the front, and cigs will continue to
lower to IFR by midnight especially across the coastal plain.
Some spotty showers and drizzle remain possible overnight but
confidence and coverage is too low to warrant any explicit
mention in the TAFs.

Low-level mixing kicks back in shortly after sunrise tomorrow,
aiding in lifting cigs back to MVFR by 12-13z and eventually
scattering out to VFR around midday. Gusty southwesterly winds
anticipated tomorrow afternoon, reaching up to 20 kt at times
especially for PGV and ISO.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 320 AM Wed... No real changes for the long term forecast
as we expect primarily VFR conditions with steady SW`rly winds
across ENC through the rest of the period as high pressure
builds into the area. Next significant frontal system expected
to impact ENC Sun night into Mon.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday night/...
As of 3:30 PM Wednesday...A warm front lifting north across the
area will transition this afternoon`s easterly flow to southerly
by tomorrow morning and southwesterly by tomorrow afternoon.
Winds will generally be 15-20 kt through the period. Seas will
be 4-5 ft, although there is potential for a brief period of 6
footers across the outer southern waters this evening. Given the
short duration and low confidence in these conditions, a SCA has
not been issued at this time.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 320 AM Wed... High pressure will remain centered off the
coast through the period gradually pushing further offshore by
Sun with the approach of a cold front. We start the period out
with 10-15 kt S`rly winds and 3-5 ft ft seas across our waters.
Winds are then forecast to increase closer to 15-20 kts with a
few gusts up near 25 kts Thurs afternoon and into Friday as the
pressure gradient briefly tightens between high pressure
offshore and an approaching front. This front stalls just to the
north of our waters allowing the pressure gradient to relax and
winds to ease Fri night into Sat down to 10-15 kts. Seas
generally remain around 3-5 ft through Sat as well with just a
SChc for some showers and thunderstorms Fri night as the front
nears the area. As we get into Sun a strong cold front then
approaches from the west, once again tightening the pressure
gradient and increasing S-SW`rly winds to 20- 25 kts with gusts
up around 30 kts across just about all the waters. Seas also
increase up to 4-6 ft on Sun as well bringing a return to at
least SCA conditions to our waters.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for Thursday 04/03

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         89/1963  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    79/1974  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville       90/1967  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    81/2007  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston          90/1934  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     89/1967  (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for Friday 04/04

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         92/1934  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    78/1945  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville       90/1967  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    80/2007  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston          92/1934  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     89/1963  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS/OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...MS/RCF
MARINE...RCF/OJC
CLIMATE...MHX