New Bern, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

219
FXUS62 KMHX 251344
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
944 AM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will remain offshore today. A cold front will
move through the region late tomorrow and tomorrow night
bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Behind this
front, cooler high pressure builds in through early next week.
By mid week, high pressure shifts offshore with another cold
front approaching by the end of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
As of 9:40 AM Friday...The forecast remains on track with no
notable changes needed.

Previous Discussion...As of 7 AM Fri...A summer-like pattern is
expected today with weak high pressure offshore and moist
onshore flow continuing. Weak convergence along a remnant
boundary will contribute to isolated shower development along
the coast this morning, but better chances of rain and
thunderstorms will develop later this afternoon along the sea
breeze (just inland of the coast). Chances for rain and
thunderstorms will then spread inland to the coastal plain by
late this afternoon as the sea breeze advances inland. Highs
will generally be in the mid/upper 70s to low 80s across ENC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 7 AM Fri...Flow will increase tonight as the gradient
tightens ahead of an approaching cold front. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms over the coastal plain late this evening will
persist in some fashion through the first half of tonight, with
additional widely scattered activity possible after midnight.
Along the Outer Banks, additional coastal convergence will
contribute to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity through
the night. Mild temperatures are expected overnight with breezy
and cloudy conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 0330 Friday...

Weekend...Yet another cold front is forecast to move through
the area late Sat resulting in the threat for more widespread
showers and storms. Highs warming into the low to mid 80s ahead
of the approaching front Saturday. Despite how juicy the
atmosphere is with PWATs of over 1.5" being higher than the 90th
percentile, the front will be far removed from upper level
support, which leads to a less than impressive QPF one the order
of quarter to half an inch for FROPA but some locally higher
amounts will be possible under heavier downpours. CAA Saturday
night behind the front will lead to MinTs in the mid 50s over
Nern zones, around 60 or warmer immediate coast. Sunday will
feature cooler and drier air as high pressure builds over the
area from the N, persisting into next week. Again NBM PoPs look
to high for Sunday. Could see a lingering early morning shower
maybe, but expecting all precip activity to be well offshore by
sunrise Sun. MaxTs in low to mid 70s Sun with clearing skies.

Next Week...Will continue a dry weather forecast
through mid next week though an isolated afternoon sea breeze
shower or storm can`t be completely ruled out. PoPs increase
again on Wednesday with the approach of another front to cross
the area later in the week, most likely Thursday at this time.
Ts warming ahead of the late week front, upper 70s Mon, low 80s
Tues, and upper 80s Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday Morning/...
As of 7 AM Fri...MVFR and IFR visibilities will persist for the
next hour or so due to patchy dense fog across inland ENC.
Thereafter, VFR conditions will mostly prevail through the rest
of the day and tonight. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorm development this afternoon along the sea breeze
may cause some brief sub-VFR conditions across ENC.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Monday/...
As of 0345 Friday...

KEY MESSAGES

 - TSRA and sub-VFR risk persists through Saturday

A strong front will cross the region late Sat with more
widespread showers and thunderstorms and a better chance for a
period of sub VFR conditions. High pressure builds in behind the
front Sunday persisting through the middle of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 7 AM Fri...Good boating conditions will persist today and
tonight with high pressure offshore. Winds will be 5-10 kts
this morning out of the NE/E. By this afternoon winds will veer
to the south and increase to 5-15 kts. Winds then become SW
15-20 kts tonight as the gradient increases ahead of an
approaching cold front. Seas will be mostly 2-4 ft.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Monday/...
As of 0400 Friday...

KEY MESSAGES

 - Small Craft conditions possible Saturday night and Sunday

Saturday, ahead of the next cold front, winds become S to SW
10-15 kt then shift to NW to N 15 to 20 gusting to 25 kt Sat
night. The front will cross area waters from N to S after sunset
Saturday night. Sunday, post frontal Nerly surge works down the
coast through Sunday morning as high pressure builds back in
behind the cold front, expecting winds 15-20G25kt. Prefrontal
wind forecast has increased showing potential for prefrontal SCA
conditions as well. However, the prefrontal winds are more
marginal for SCA, so have opted not to issue headlines for this
event just yet. Seas 3-5ft Saturday with 6ft building over outer
waters as Nerly surge hits Sunday. Seas subside to 2-4ft
through the day Monday to reach 2-3ft Tuesday. Boating
conditions deteriorate again Wed ahead of the next front.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK/OJC
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...SGK/CEB
MARINE...SGK/CEB