New Bern, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

207
FXUS62 KMHX 020201
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1001 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure briefly builds in tonight, then shifts offshore on
Wednesday. High pressure then remains anchored offshore through
the end of the week and into the first half of the weekend. The
next cold front then impacts the region late this weekend into
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1000 PM Tuesday...

Forecast trending well with no significant changes this update.
Quiet night unfolding across eastern NC tonight as high
pressure weakly extends into the region from the north with only
scattered high clouds streaming overhead and some straggling
along the Outer Banks. Modest pressure gradient thanks to the
high to the north will keep winds up just enough to prevent any
appreciable fog threat despite recently saturated soils. Lows
tonight moderated by winds, but will still range in the 40s and
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGES

 - Mild and mostly dry Wednesday
 - Turning noticeably warmer Wednesday night

High pressure quickly shifts offshore on Wednesday, with a warm
front lifting north through the area Wednesday night. Model
guidance is fairly insistent on low-level moisture increasing
within the developing return flow Wednesday afternoon through
Wednesday night. In light of this, the forecast will continue to
reflect increasing clouds through the day and into the night.
Despite rising low-level thicknesses, the increased cloudcover
should offset how warm it gets, with the expectation that highs
will hold in the 60s and 70s (not too dissimilar than today). If
guidance ends up too aggressive with cloudcover, then highs
have the potential to warm into the mid 70s inland. Increased
southerly flow in the wake of the warm front will support very
mild conditions Wednesday night. In fact, lows are expected to
be a good 10-15 degrees above normal for early April. This isn`t
quite to record territory, but it`s close.

As the coastal trough/warm front takes shape on Wednesday, and
lifts north Wednesday night, there may be just enough low-level
convergence to support a few coastal showers Wednesday afternoon
- Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Tue...

Key Messages: - Near Record High Temperatures expected on
Thursday and Friday

Thursday through Sunday... Upper ridging remains in place into
the weekend, becoming amplified as we get into Sun out ahead of
a deepening positively tilted trough in the Plains. This trough
then tracks E`wards early next week eventually pushing offshore
by midweek. This trough will bring our next frontal boundary
across ENC early next week. High pressure ridging in the mid
levels and at the surface becomes entrenched offshore and moves
little into this weekend. This will continue to promote SW`rly
flow at the mid levels and at the surface bringing a steady WAA
regime to ENC, thus allowing temps to soar well above normal
Thurs and Fri with highs climbing well into the 80s inland
(potentially reaching the low 90s on Friday) and mid to upper
70s along the beaches. This is rather anomalous for the time of
year with ECMWF EFI values close to the 90th+ percentile for max
temps and NAFES surface and 850 mb temp anomolies generally at
1-2 SD above normal. Overnight lows will also be well above
average, with temps forecast to drop only as far as the mid-to-
upper 60s Thursday-Saturday nights. Forecast continues to show
temps to near record Highs for early April (see "Climate
Section" for more information). While we will likely remain mo
dry across ENC through the end of the workweek a weak mid level
shortwave that will be tracking along the northern periphery of
the mid level ridging may bring some isolated showers to
portions of ENC on Thurs. For now the threat is relatively low
so kept PoP`s at SChc at best across the area.

Temps look to remain well above normal on Sat and Sun as a
backdoor cold front stalls near the NC/VA border and then lifts
N`wards as a warm front this weekend. However, once again this
front may bring a low end threat for some shower activity and
maybe a rumble of thunder or two primarily across areas north of
Hwy 264 on Fri night into Sat morning before we dry out on Sun.
Once again given the lower end threat kept PoPs at Schc to Chc
at best.

Early next week...The next cold front then looks to impact the
area Sunday night into Monday as strengthening surface low moves
through the Mid-Atlantic. Still have a fair spread in the
overall evolution of the upper level pattern and how quickly the
cold front tracks across the area so once again capped PoP`s at
high end Chc for now until we gain better confidence in when
the rain threat will occur. Otherwise we do finally cool down
Mon into Tue as well with temps falling back closer to normal.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 00z Thurs/...
As of 750 PM Tuesday...Front is now fully across the region,
giving way to weak high pressure building in from the north.
Gentle easterly winds expected to persist overnight with weak
pressure gradient associated with the surface high. Fog threat
is slow thanks to the steady winds, despite moistened soils, but
well decoupled areas may briefly see reduced visibilities.
Little impact to aviation operations is expected.

Guidance continues to suggest sufficient low-level moistening
within the developing easterly flow, supporting a risk of lower
CIGs developing tomorrow afternoon. Maintained a SCT mention of
lower cigs with the potential for spotty MVFR cigs. Within the
moistening flow, a few SHRA may develop offshore near a
developing coastal trough/warm front. These SHRA, if they
develop, may attempt to push towards the coast during the
afternoon hours.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 330 AM Tue...Expect primarily VFR conditions with steady
SW`rly winds across ENC through the rest of the period as high
pressure builds into the area. Next significant frontal system
expected to impact ENC Sun night into Mon.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday night/...
As of 1000 PM Tuesday...

Easterly winds are easing further across area waters tonight as
backdoor front settles well to our south and weak high pressure
builds in from the north. Seas have now dropped below 6 feet for
all waters and SCAs have been cancelled, although a few spotty
gusts to 25 kt are possible mainly across Onslow Bay for the
next couple of hours.

Winds continue to veer southeasterly tomorrow at around 10-15 kt
with seas of 3-5 feet prevailing into Wednesday night.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 330 AM Tue...High pressure will be fully in control of
the weather through the period bringing a decent stretch of
rather benign boating conditions to our waters. High pressure
gradually becomes centered offshore allowing winds to veer to a
 S`rly direction into Thurs. Winds may also increase closer to
15-20 kts with a few gusts up near 25 kts Thurs afternoon and
into Friday as the pressure gradient briefly tightens between
this high and an approaching front. This front stalls just to
the north of our waters allowing the pressure gradient to relax
and winds to ease Fri night into Sat down to 10-15 kts. Seas
generally remain around 3-5 ft through the period with just a
SChc for some showers and thunderstorms Fri night as the front
nears the area.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for Thursday 04/03

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         89/1963  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    79/1974  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville       90/1967  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    81/2007  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston          90/1934  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     89/1967  (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for Friday 04/04

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         92/1934  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    78/1945  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville       90/1967  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    80/2007  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston          92/1934  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     89/1963  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM/MS
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...MS/RCF
MARINE...RM/RCF
CLIMATE...MHX