Monroe, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

078
FXUS62 KGSP 180857
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
357 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moving across the region will provide widespread rain
this morning, with a wintry mix across portions of the mountains. A
round of light snow showers could develop late tonight or Sunday
near the Tennessee border. Arctic high pressure returns Monday
bringing bitter cold to the region for next week. A storm system
is expected to track from the northern Gulf of Mexico to off the
Southeast Coast midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 250 AM: A key feature of interest for the short term will
be the shortwave trough now centered over the Ozarks, progged to
dampen as it tracks into the Ohio Valley today. An associated warm
front extends from NE AR to N GA presently. An arc of generally
light precip preceding the shortwave is beginning to move into
the SW NC mountains; sfc obs at this hour indicate precip is
just beginning to reach the ground there. Observed temps are
either side of freezing in the mountains and northern foothills,
partly dependent on elevation, although the above-freezing obs are
mostly associated with wet-bulbs below freezing. Rapid moistening
is expected after the onset of precip in usual fashion and temps
will tend to warm, especially in high elevations, in the face
of developing WAA at/above about 900 mb. Temp profiles would
appear to be entirely below freezing above about 800 mb, with a
near-isothermal layer below. Evaporational cooling at onset might
leave enough of a warm nose for sleet to fall in areas where the
sfc falls below freezing, but otherwise where temps are in the
mid-30s wet snow would be likely if not cold rain. A very slight
amount of elevated instability is enough that precip is showery
in character further upstream; a few reporting sites have seen
liquid accums of up to around 0.10"/hr. Upslope lift could enhance
stratiform rates to about the same rate. Therefore it is not out
of the question a quick inch of snow could fall if such rates were
to occur in the colder areas--but the areas where temps stay cold
enough sufficient for any higher amounts still appear to be confined
to very high elevations mainly in uninhabited areas. Dewpoints will
warm and 850mb temps rise in WAA preceding the approaching wave,
so the snow is expected to be short-lived. We will issue an SPS
for the possibility of travel impacts this morning.

Precip chances will increase over the mountains thru 7-9 AM before
tapering off as the main area of forcing passes to the Piedmont,
and as winds veer aloft and moisture becomes more shallow. Any
remaining precip after about 10 AM is expected to be rain. Most
indications are that this initial round of precip will taper off
in the I-85/I-77 corridors by noon. WAA will continue in the low
levels and likely will maintain cloud cover over much of the area
this afternoon. Despite that, temps will rise to near normal across
the CWA today. Heights will rise briefly as the shortwave departs
and/or dampens out, but longwave trough associated with approaching
Arctic airmass will remain to our west. Jet streak amplifies to
our south and weak sfc low tracks across the upper Coastal Plain
of GA/SC. Light showers result in most model solutions across
our Piedmont. Subtle differences in the track of this feature
translate to a low confidence forecast, so we advertise no better
than 30-40% PoP there. Temps will be warm enough for only rain
with this feature--mins likely several degrees above normal under
persistent cloud cover. Prog soundings indicate a low inversion
with saturation below, so fog likely (and perhaps dense at least
locally). Some weak upslope precip may also continue along the
TN border tonight which also likely would be rain, most of the
night. However, by daybreak Sunday, trough axis and cold front
will reach the mountains and precip likely will change to snow,
with accums mainly Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3:35 AM EST Saturday...the short-term fcst picks up at 12z on
Sunday with very broad upper trofing centered over the central CONUS.
This trof will be expansive and cover most of the CONUS thru the bulk
of the period. The trof does begin to shift east and deamplify towards
the end of the period early Tuesday as upper ridging builds over the
West Coast. At the sfc, another low will spin up over the Carolinas
along a lingering frontal boundary as the period is beginning. This
low is expected to quickly lift northeast and off the Atlantic Coast
by Sunday night with broad, arctic high pressure spreading over the
Southeast in its wake and lingering over our area for the rest of the
period. Winds are expected to strengthen out of the W and NW early in
the period as the sfc low lifts NE of our area. The gusty winds will
combine with some lingering rain showers outside the mtns and rain/snow
showers over the mtns during the first 6 hrs or so of the period on
Sunday. After roughly 18z Sunday, it`s looking like temperatures over
the favored NW flow snow areas will be cold enough to support only snow.
Snow amounts continue to trend upwards modestly, and now it`s looking
like the NC/TN border region will reach at least Advisory criteria by
early Monday. After discussion with our neighboring fcst offices, we
elected to issue a Winter Storm Watch for Haywood, Madison, Yancey,
and Mitchell Counties, and for the high elevations of Swain and Graham
Counties from 12z Sunday to 12z Monday. For Avery, we elected to issue
a Winter Wx Advisory for the same time frame. Otherwise, any lingering
precip outside the mtns on Sunday should be rain. The combination of
gusty winds and cold temps, will likely produce wind chill values below
zero across most of the mtns early Monday, with single digit to low teens
possible for most of our lower terrain. As such, it is likely that a Cold
Wx Advisory will be needed for a good portion of our CWA and possibly an
Extreme Cold Warning for some of our mtn zones.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 2:55 AM EST Saturday...the extended fcst picks up at 12z
on Tuesday with expansive upper trofing centered over the Great
Lakes taking on a more positive tilt. Over the next couple of days,
the upper trof will lift NE and move off the Atlantic Coast with
heights briefly recovering over the Southeast in its wake. Most of
the long-range guidance still suggests that another upper trof will
amplify across the central CONUS late next week as the period is
ending. At the sfc, a weak low will be spinning up over the Gulf of
Mexico as the period begins early Tuesday. This low is expected to
rapidly move NE and out over the Atlantic by early Wednesday. At
the same time, high pressure gets reinforced from the west across
our area and lingers thru at least Thursday. By the end of the
period late next week, most of the long-range guidance tries to
develop another low somewhere to our south, but the location and/
or timing remains unclear at this point. Overall, the long-range
guidance appears to be coming into better agreement wrt the low
on Tues/Wed. With the cold air in place during that time, it`s
still likely that any precip that does materialize would be snow
for our CWA, however PoPs remain capped in the chance range at
this time. The other main concern for the period will be the very
cold airmass that lingers for most of the period. This airmass
will produce very cold temperatures and wind chills, especially
across the mtns. High temperatures will struggle to get above
freezing both Tuesday and Wednesday across most of our CWA. Temps
are still expected to rebound somewhat on Thursday and Friday, but
still remain well-below climatology. Low temps early Tues, Wed, and
Thurs are expected to drop into the single digits in the mtns and
teens outside the mtns. Wind chill values will be dangerously cold,
especially across the mtns, with single digit to below zero wind
chills expected both Tues and Wed morning. Wind chills outside the
mtns are expected to range from the single digits to the teens each
morning. Thus, a Cold Weather Advisory looks likely for at least a
portion of our area during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Cigs start off 150-200 but will lower
below 060 before daybreak. Precip shield initially driven by
shortwave will shift over the TAF terminals from west to east
between approx. 09-15z. Periods of MVFR vsby and cigs will be
possible as a result. In higher elevations and in cooler parts of
the NC Piedmont -SN or -PL could mix in near onset but rain will
predominate; this chance looks best (and mentionable) at KAVL, and
can`t be ruled out at KHKY although too unlikely to mention. This
wave of precip likely will exit to the east or diminish by midday,
but a warm front subsequently will activate as sfc low moves
into MS/AL. Cigs may lift or scatter for a time after precip but
MVFR to IFR stratus cigs will develop ahead of the warm front,
lowering to LIFR in most areas by early evening. A second round
of light/brief precip could pass over KGSP/KGMU/KAND this aftn or
evening, although this is of low enough consequence to mention
only as -DZ or VCSH for now. Good signal for IFR (or worse) fog
developing across most of the region tonight, likely affecting
all sites. Winds generally light southerly, although turning NW
at KAVL this evening if not going calm.

Outlook: NW flow snow showers possible Sunday near the NC/TN border,
NW of KAVL, mainly in the morning. An Arctic airmass will spread
into the region late Sunday into Sunday night, bringing exceptional
cold to the region which will last most of next week. Small chance
of snow Tue evening thru early Wed.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 01-20

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      69 1906     24 2009     53 1954    -13 1985
                1890
   KCLT      71 1951     30 1983     53 1890     -2 1985
                1929        1893
                1927
   KGSP      72 1933     30 1983     56 1922      1 1985



RECORDS FOR 01-21

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      72 1927      8 1985     59 1927    -16 1985
   KCLT      73 1935     24 1985     58 1954     -5 1985
   KGSP      73 1927     26 1985     59 1933     -4 1985



RECORDS FOR 01-22

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      73 1932     21 1960     59 1933      0 1970
   KCLT      74 1937     29 1970     60 1906      5 1970
   KGSP      72 1938     31 1970     58 1933      3 1893
                1921



RECORDS FOR 01-23

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      73 1927     20 2005     54 1999      1 1936
                            1936
   KCLT      75 1927     27 1970     59 1999      9 2003
   KGSP      73 1974     30 1970     58 1999      5 1893
                1927

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday
     for NCZ033.
     Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning
     for NCZ048>052-058.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wimberley
NEAR TERM...Wimberley
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...Wimberley
CLIMATE...GSP