Monroe, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

097
FXUS62 KGSP 080709
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
309 AM EDT Tue Apr 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and cooler conditions return through midweek. Another cold front
approaches Thursday night bringing showers, before dry weather
returns for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 303 AM EDT Tuesday...The last vestiges of the light rain
were moving east of metro CLT at this early hour, and the front
has already moved through, so the precip and most of the clouds
to be long gone by sunrise. Temp/dewpt were modified once again
based on the obs trend.

With the short wave and upper trof axis off to the east, today
should be quite a bit cooler, drier, and quieter than the past few
days. Sfc high pressure will build in from the northwest through
the day, keeping a breezy NW wind across the region, and plenty of
sun. The dewpoint/RH is of minor concern this afternoon, but with
some evaporation from the wet ground, we should avoid the dewpoint
mixing out enough to drop the RH down too far. For the most part,
the min RH stays around 30 pct. High temps look roughly ten degrees
below normal, so, yeah, back to late winter/early spring. The
main story will be low temps tonight, owing to the center of the
high moving across the mtns. The guidance trend is back up and
winds should stay light NE, keeping the boundary layer mixed up
enough to prevent frost. As a result, min temps have crept back
up a degree or two. There`s still enough support for converting
the Freeze Watch to a Warning, but certainly not enough to expand
it. Not much other than perhaps a few isolated sheltered frosty
spots early Wednesday, so no Frost Advisory will be issued.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 155 AM Tuesday: Dry conditions return once again for at least
the start of the short term. An amplifying ridge over the western
CONUS translates a trough response over the eastern portion by
Wednesday night and strengthens into Thursday night. At the surface,
an area of low pressure forms off to the north and brings a frontal
boundary through the region, along with precipitation chances by the
end of the period. Southerly surface winds allows for increased
moisture advection to take place, priming the southeast for rain.
Guidance from the GFS/EURO suggest a secondary, stronger low spin up
further north, giving a quasi-fujiwhara effect Thursday before
dissipating. Basically, this means rain chances increase Thursday
and into Thursday night. Rain lingers into the next period on
Friday, but for now, keeping PoPs capped at chance as there still
remains some uncertainty of how these two areas of low pressure
dancing around each other will affect precip chances. Additionally,
the drier air supports lower RH, but guidance keeps it from dropping
it to critical levels. This shouldn`t be too much of a concern given
the wetter vegetation from previous rainfall. Temperatures should
remain closer to normal, so cool daytime highs. Overnight temps warm
above freezing, so no concerns there.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 AM Tuesday: Precip chances continue Friday as an area of
low pressure jets off toward the north. This is carried away by a
strong trough over the eastern US lifting off the coast and the
ridge propagating eastward. Behind all the departing low, long-range
guidance suggests a slight chance for brief NW flow over the
mountains, which could indicate a small amount of snow, but
confidence is low at this time. After the system moves north,
surface high pressure moves down from Canada and expands across the
eastern US for the weekend and eventually gets pinched off over the
southeast. A gradual warm up from normal temps to above normal by
the end of the period. Not much more to add other than drier air
lingering through the weekend, increasing fire weather concerns with
lower RH. But again, not too concerning given the wetter vegetation.
Otherwise, expect a relatively quieter pattern after the low departs
on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Light precip lingers around the Charlotte
metro at issuance time, but evidently the flight restrictions have
moved off to the east. The low cloud VFR ceiling should push off
to the east by 08Z or so as well. Winds have already come around
to NW, so the front is through. With that, all terminals should
be VFR through the period, with clearing sky, and a NW to N wind
as high pressure builds in behind the front. Late in the day,
wind should veer around to something more NNE.

Outlook: VFR conditions should persist thru mid-week. Another low
pressure system may bring another round of showers and associated
restrictions late Thursday into Friday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ035>037-
     056-057-069-502-504-506.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...PM