Monroe, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
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NWS Forecast for Monroe NC
National Weather Service Forecast for:
Monroe NC
Issued by: National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg, SC |
Updated: 12:15 am EST Feb 7, 2025 |
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Overnight
 Chance Showers
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Friday
 Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance Showers
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Friday Night
 Chance Showers
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Saturday
 Slight Chance Showers then Mostly Cloudy
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Saturday Night
 Mostly Cloudy then Patchy Fog
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Sunday
 Slight Chance Showers
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Sunday Night
 Chance Showers
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Monday
 Chance Showers
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Monday Night
 Chance Showers
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Lo 58 °F |
Hi 73 °F |
Lo 51 °F |
Hi 63 °F |
Lo 57 °F |
Hi 74 °F |
Lo 43 °F |
Hi 48 °F |
Lo 39 °F |
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Overnight
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A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 3am and 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. West southwest wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. |
Friday
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A 20 percent chance of showers after 4pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 73. Northwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph. |
Friday Night
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A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly between 7pm and 4am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 51. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph after midnight. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. |
Saturday
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A slight chance of showers before 8am, then a slight chance of rain between 8am and 9am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 63. East northeast wind around 6 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%. |
Saturday Night
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Patchy fog between 1am and 4am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. South southeast wind 5 to 13 mph becoming southwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph. |
Sunday
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A slight chance of showers between 10am and 4pm, then a slight chance of rain after 4pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. Chance of precipitation is 20%. |
Sunday Night
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A 40 percent chance of showers after 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 43. |
Monday
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A 40 percent chance of showers before 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 48. |
Monday Night
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A 50 percent chance of showers after 9pm. Cloudy, with a low around 39. |
Tuesday
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Showers. High near 49. Chance of precipitation is 80%. |
Tuesday Night
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Showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 41. Chance of precipitation is 70%. |
Wednesday
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Showers. High near 56. Chance of precipitation is 80%. |
Wednesday Night
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Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 45. Chance of precipitation is 70%. |
Thursday
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Showers likely. Partly sunny, with a high near 66. Chance of precipitation is 60%. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS
for Monroe NC.
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Weather Forecast Discussion
598
FXUS62 KGSP 070603
AFDGSP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
103 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Well above normal temperatures continue through the weekend. A
cold front will push through the area late Sunday, ushering in
much cooler temperatures Monday. Unsettled weather conditions will
likely persist through most of next week, as a front stalls over
the region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1212 AM...
Key Messages:
1) Thunder activity has diminished significantly and although a
few storms may continue east of the Tennessee border, the severe
risk looks limited going forward.
2) Scattered showers or even an isolated t-storm may occur between
midnight and 4 AM across our Piedmont zones. This activity likely
will be elevated in nature and severe threat will be small but
nonzero.
3) Well Above Normal Temperatures Continue Friday
At this point, storms are beginning to move into less-favorable
air east of the unstable sector, where soundings suggest that
instability is elevated in nature and shear is significantly less
robust. That`s not to say that storms won`t be possible east of,
say, I-26 over the next couple hours, but additional severe weather
looks increasingly unlikely.
Flat upper trough will swing thru the Great Lakes tonight,
ushering in just subtle height falls across the forecast area. An
associated cold front will lay over the area from the north through
the remainder of tonight, and may stall roughly half way thru the
forecast area by daybreak Friday. The sfc cold front is in eastern
TN now, but storms within its warm sector have, as described above,
encountered increasingly weak instability in the mountains and
NC foothills. Effective shear will persist but the storms would
appear likely to become elevated. Not confident any threat would
extend further east than the Tennessee border counties, but can`t
completely rule it out. Scattered remnant showers and perhaps an
isolated elevated t-storm are expected in the lee of the mountains,
southeast to about the I-85 corridor where most guidance allows
the activity to fizzle. PoPs will fall below slight-chance by
daybreak. Temps still look to be about 20-25 degrees above normal
overnight under mostly cloudy skies.
Most guidance depicts more of a lull in activity in the morning
than we previously advertised, so PoPs were reduced below slight
chance 6 AM to about 10 AM. The front is forecast to stall roughly
along the SC/NC border Friday, as flow remains zonal aloft. Westerly
downslope flow should help scour out any stratus that forms Friday
morning, with some cumulus lingering across the southern half of
the forecast area into the aftn hours. A few showers may develop
in the southern zones, but overall, it is expected to be dry. Highs
will be 15-20 deg above normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 213 PM EST Thursday...
Key Messages:
1) Stalled Front on Saturday may lead to a wide range of
temperatures
2) A return to Well Above Normal Temperatures on Saturday
3) Low rain chances outside the mountains for the weekend
More uncertainty than usual for the weekend forecast because of the
presence of a boundary strung out west-east across the region, stuck
under a quasi-zonal flow aloft. Guidance is in decent agreement
with a weak sfc wave moving along the front located across the
southern part of the forecast area Friday evening. Forcing will be
practically nil but moisture will be pooled across the frontal zone,
and some weak low level warm advection/upglide will develop in the
evening, which warrants holding onto a modest precip chance across
most of the region. The model blend appears to be overdone in this
regard, so the fcst undercuts it by 10-20 pct, thinking the NAM
Nest has a good depiction of what to expect. Low temps should be
around 10 degrees above normal. Saturday looks like a tricky temp
fcst. At the sfc, a weak high will move across the Mid-Atlantic and
should ridge down across the area, which ordinarily might suggest a
weak hybrid cold air damming scenario, but the forcing for precip
is nearly non-existant and the models suggest redeveloping the
frontal boundary as a warm front much farther north across VA as a
low pressure system moves up the OH River Valley. That being the
case, warm advection would stream northward across the fcst area
and we might be well above normal. However, remnant cool pools
are notoriously stubborn across the foothills/NW Piedmont at this
time of year and this situation, which would act to keep temps much
cooler. This day could feature a tight gradient in temps from south
to north, which is indicated in our forecast, but areas along/north
of I-85 could see our forecast being off by 10-15 degrees for highs
rather easily. After the low passes, the associated cold front
is expected to run up against the west side of the mtns where it
will get stuck at least temporarily. That yields a tight gradient
in precip chances between likely/categorical on the TN border to
nothing east of the mtns. Will the front get pushed over the mtns
early enough on Sunday to affect the high temps? Guidance says not
and shows high temps well into the 70s again outside the mtns. That
seems to have worked out lately and was generally accepted, but
this too could go right down the tubes if the front moves through
early enough. Assuming it gets warm Sunday, don`t get used to it.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 259 PM EST Thursday...looks like Monday might come as a shock
to the system. Revenge of the Wedge. A large continental sfc high
dropping down over the nrn Plains should effectively drive a cold
front across the region either late in the day on Sunday or at least
Sunday night, with isentropic upglide developing to the north of
the front as the high bridges over the mtns and sets up a classic
cold air damming wedge by sunrise Monday. Oh what a difference a
day makes. Monday looks cloudy and wet with temps that struggle to
get out of the 40s across NC and in the 50s across the south...some
15-20 degrees colder than Sunday. A chunk of the parent high scoots
past to the north Monday night and offshore Tuesday, while the old
boundary reactivates and a wave moves along it. Precip chances go
way up and temps stay on the below normal while this sorts itself
out. The timing of this next wave passing to the north and dragging
a cold front across the region is uncertain and would affect the
main high prob time, either Tuesday or Wednesday. A brief break in
the action is likely during mid-week once the first wave passes,
but by this time the srn stream is active and spins up another wave
on the old boundary either over the srn Plains or lower MS valley
late in the week. Precip could redevelop right away Wednesday night
and continue into Thursday, with another cold air damming wedge
possible. All this keeps precip probs high, temps below normal,
and uncertainty high through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Most locations remain VFR, although a
deck of high-MVFR stratus has broken out on the warm side of
the advancing cold front, now analyzed over the NC mountains and
pushing toward the NC foothills. Still advertising SHRA at all
sites over the next few hours, and TSRA at HKY and AVL, although
thunder chances are steadily diminishing. So far, haven`t seen
much in the way of restrictions even in the immediate vicinity
of this activity...and expect any lingering low clouds to scatter
out quickly after daybreak as a W wind develops. FEW cloud cover
is then expected for much of the day, before reactivation along
the remnant frontal boundary should spur a return to low-VFR or
high-MVFR ceilings in the evening...and the Upstate sites as well
as CLT got PROB30s for SHRA after dark tomorrow.
Outlook: Periodic showers possible through early next week and could
bring associated restrictions to visibility along with periods of
low ceilings.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...ARK/MPR/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...MPR
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