Leland, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

961
FXUS62 KILM 071803
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
203 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity will continue through
next week as a series of disturbances pass across the region,
with a strong cold front reaching the coast before stalling
during the middle of next week. Thunderstorms are possible
throughout the week; some may be severe, especially late
Saturday and again Sunday afternoon. The biggest threats are
damaging winds with hail possible especially Sun.

&&

.UPDATE...
Minor tweaks to sky and PoP grids made. Otherwise, winds, temps
and dewpoints remain on track.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A shortwave will move through our hot, humid air mass today
bringing unsettled weather, mainly through the PM hours. The
entire area exists in a Slight (threat 2 of 5) risk for severe
weather, mainly due to damaging wind gusts. Rain chances will
increase into the afternoon as a shortwave starts to move into
the area from the west, shear a borderline 30 kts. MLCAPE will
increase to >1000 by the afternoon, and could reach >3000 in the
late afternoon, maximized along the coast. PWATs will remain
+1.5" but an area of +2" will move through in the afternoon
supporting isolated moderate to heavy rainfall. For now,
ensembles favor better storm coverage to our north where better
forcing is, but some more pulses of shortwave energy could
arrive overnight. While CAPE will decrease after we lose the
sun, it will be slower than usual due to the nature of the air
mass in place, meaning we could still get isolated strong
thunderstorms overnight, though uncertainty is higher. Highs
will be in the lower 90s to perhaps mid 90s in some spots with
the coast in the upper 80s. Heat indices will increase to near
100F. Lows will be in the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Severe thunderstorm activity once again possible from midday
Sun thru Sun evening. Strong westerly flow aloft, sfc trof
across the Carolinas, ample instability and an embedded mid-
level s/w trof helping to push a cold front to the Eastern
Carolinas before stalling Sun night. All of this combined will
result in thunderstorm activity, that develops upstream from the
FA, then progresses eastward within westerly flow aloft, and
pushes across the FA from Sun afternoon thru early evening, and
finally off the coasts and offshore around midnight Mon.
Looking at both days Another hot day Sun with lower 90s common,
away from the beaches. For Mon, looking at subsidence aloft
in the wake of the exiting s/w trof as well as low amplitude
mid-level ridging overhead. Approaching mid-level s/w trof from
the Gulf Coast states late Mon/Mon night, will result in POPs
ranging from hiest SW portions of the FA to lowest NE portions
of the FA Mon aftn. Mon night, look for the expanding longwave
upper trof across the Eastern U.S. with an embedded pivoting
s/w trof helping to drive the next cold front to the FA late
before stalling. Looking at 90-95 readings for highs Mon with
rain cooled air Mon night a degree or 2 either side of 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Eastern U.S. longwave upper trof will finally progress eastward
during Tue and Wed, with its trof axis pushing across Tue night
and offshore Wed. This will push a sfc cold front just off the
coast before stalling Tue into Wed, with any POPs confined
closer to the coast. The Southeast States will come under
upper ridging Thu thru Fri with only isolated convection
possible Thu/Fri given the subsidence associated with the upper
ridging. With summer conditions slowly becoming the norm, will
be difficult to go with a POP-less forecast even with
suppression aloft present. Temps this period will run at or
slightly above climo.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR is expected to dominate the period, except if a
thunderstorm happens to move over a terminal, which generally
carries low confidence through the period. At this point, the
best chances (low to moderate confidence) for a passing storm is
at KILM through this afternoon, while the Myrtles have lower
confidence, but anything that develops would occur mainly this
evening and be quick-hitting. Additional showers or storms may
impact the inland terminals during the latter half of the
overnight into early tomorrow morning as a decaying complex of
storms pushes east from upstate South Carolina. However,
confidence remains on the low side as to whether this will
survive to the inland terminals and especially to the coast.
Tomorrow, the outcome of the decaying complex of storms will
determine whether additional activity could get going along the
sea breeze before 18Z or if new development would hold off until
later in the day.

Extended Outlook...Brief restrictions are
possible in afternoon/evening thunderstorms late Sunday through
Thursday, along with a chance of overnight/morning fog and
stratus Sunday night. Strong storms are possible on Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...SW winds will increase ahead of a disturbance
in the late afternoon and evening to 15-20 kts with these
speeds lingering through the overnight hours. A few gusts of 25
kts could plague the waters during this time, but coverage
should be too low and the timing too brief to raise a SCA. The
disturbance will cause unsettled weather over the waters through
the PM hours, and some storms could be severe. Seas will
increase from 3 ft to 5 ft tonight. Swells will be 1-2 ft SE
swell at 7-9 seconds and an increasingly oppressive wind wave
out of the SW at 2-4 ft and 4-5 seconds.


Sunday through Wednesday Night... The coastal waters will lie
between sfc trofs and/or frontal boundaries lying across the
mainland Carolinas and the sfc ridge axis extending southwest
from the Bermuda high to Florida. This sfc pressure pattern will
result in a prolonged synoptic SW wind direction. Periodically
will observe a tightened sfc pg across the waters as well as
nocturnal modest southwesterly low level jets. Overall, looking
at SW winds 10-15 kt, except 15-20 kt g25 kt during the pinched
gradient and/or nocturnal jet occurrences. Pcpn activity will
mainly occur from convection that moves off the mainland, that
weakens initially while moving across the local waters, then
strengthens when reaches the warmer SSTs, ie the Gulf Stream.
Seas generally will run 2 to 4 ft, except 5 footers possible
during the hier SW wind phases. Wind driven 3 to 6 second period
locally produced waves will dominate. However, an underlying
small SE swell at 8+ second periods will remain present.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DCH
UPDATE...ABW
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...DCH/LEW