Leland, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

192
FXUS62 KILM 231726
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1226 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions with unseasonably chilly temperatures will continue
through tonight. High pressure will then move off the coast
bringing warmer temperatures early next week. A passing cold
front and a storm system are likely to bring cooler temperatures
and some rain mid week.

&&

.UPDATE/...
Aviation discussion updated below and CWF reissued to lower SCA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
After a chilly start to the day, temps rebound a bit this afternoon
with highs around 60F, which is still a bit below normal. Our area
remains between a strong low pressure system exiting the Northeast
and surface high pressure to the southwest. While the high begins to
expand into the Carolinas this afternoon, lingering tightened
pressure gradient will produce gusts of 20-25mph today, particularly
across southeast NC. Excellent radiational cooling tonight, courtesy
of expanded high pressure from the southwest, will dominate over a
modifying air mass to bring one more night of lows in the 30s. Good
chance for patchy to areas of frost tonight away from the coast,
with some traditional cold spots potentially dropping to 32F or
lower.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Highlights:
*Mostly dry with near to above normal temperatures

Confidence:
*Moderate to High

Details:

Expect dry conditions to continue with moderating temperatures as
high pressure shifts offshore, although there could be a few showers
inland late Monday night. Temperatures should be near normal Sunday
and above normal Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Highlights:
*Above normal temps Tue, generally near to above normal temps Tue
night through Thu night, then likely below normal temps Fri
*A cold front and storm system will bring some showers mid to
late week

Confidence:
*Moderate Tue through Wed night
*Low to Moderate Thu through Fri

Details:

A mainly dry cold front should push through Tuesday bringing cooler
and drier air to the area through Wed night. The forecast then
becomes a bit more uncertain as the cooler high pressure system
tries to hang on as a warm front advances into the region ahead of a
storm system approaching from the west. The main low should exit
offshore to the north pushing a cold front through SE NC and NE SC
Thu night/early Fri. Moisture and forcing appear more abundant with
this system and thus rain amounts should be pretty decent
(~0.5-1"), although due to some timing uncertainty we kept rain
chances capped at 40% for now. If current timing holds though,
rain will be ending early Fri with colder air moving in during
the day. Thus, highs Fri could actually occur earlier in the day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR with clear skies and NW winds that will abate with sunset
and even moreso overnight. After sunrise tomorrow light winds
will pick up out of the SW.

Extended Outlook... Expect VFR through at least early Tuesday
as high pressure maintains control, with a low risk of
restrictions later Tuesday as a cold front approaches.
Visibility restrictions from rain and lowered ceilings are
expected Wednesday as well as on Thanksgiving.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Gusty offshore winds will linger through late
morning, sustained around 20 kts and gusts up to 30 kts, and
therefore the SCA has been extended until 16z. Winds will be
decreasing throughout the day and into tonight as high pressure
builds in from the southwest. Winds around 15 kts this afternoon,
with gusts to 20 kts, lower to 10 kts or less tonight. Similarly,
seas will be improving quickly through the day as the offshore wind
wave weakens, with 2-5 ft seas around sunrise lowering to 1-2 ft by
tonight.

Sunday through Wednesday...High pressure offshore will lead to
southerly winds, elevated at times, into Tuesday before a cold front
passes through later in the day and Tue night. High pressure will
then return from the north bringing a little surge in northerly
winds into early Wed. However, no Small Craft Advisory conditions
are anticipated.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...MBB