Kannapolis, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

313
FXUS62 KGSP 071753
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
153 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and evening, some of which could become severe. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible again Sunday before a brief
lull develops Monday. Unsettled weather returns Monday night into
Tuesday before another lull develops on Wednesday and potentially
lingers into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages...

1.  Confidence is increasing as to the threat of severe
thunderstorms this evening across northeast GA, southwest NC,
and the western Upstate of SC.

2.  The main threat will be damaging wind gusts with the passage
of a squall line.

3.  Hot temperatures into the lower 90s east of the mountains.

As of 1245 PM: Confidence keeps slowly increasing that a squall
line of thunderstorms will affect at least the western third of
the fcst area this evening, with damaging wind gusts being the
main threat. We have been watching a QLCS move across AR into
western TN and northern MS all morning and it has caught up to
some convection out ahead and should further consolidate as it
moves east at a fairly good clip this afternoon. The HRRR has
been fairly consistent with moving this feature across northern AL
and northwest GA/southeast TN, then reaching the fcst area around
22Z, perhaps a bit earlier. The 12Z run of the HREF shows better
agreement among the various CAMs with this QLCS scenario unfolding
into the early evening. We already have a good corridor/gradient
of 1500-2500 J/kg of sfc-based CAPE between the ongoing QLCS and
western NC/northeast GA, so I see no reason why the QLCS wouldn`t
reach the fcst area, still producing wind damage. The area west
of I-26 should anticipate being put in a Severe Tstm Watch at some
point later this afternoon and plan accordingly. Precip probs were
adjusted to account for the timing of the squall line. As to how far
east it would make it, most of the guidance has it weakening as it
tracks east across the fcst area thru late evening, but it should
not be a surprise if it holds together all the way to I-77. We
will of course be monitoring and gearing up for the severe threat.

Meanwhile, some weakening showers will continue to move across
the area north of I-40 thru mid-afternoon, with other isolated
showers possible elsewhere as we warm above normal.

Otherwise...multiple rounds of showers/storms are possible near
the TN border between evening and daybreak, with northwest flow
early Sunday morning supporting continued high chance to likely
PoP there. Lows tonight a few degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Drier Sunday Night into Monday

2) Unsettled Weather Returns Monday Night into Tuesday

3) Near to Above Normal Temps Expected Early Next Week

Drier conditions will develop behind a departing cold front Sunday
night into Monday but this will be short-lived as moisture returns
Monday night into Tuesday as the front stalls across the Carolinas
and as another cold front approaches out of the west. The second
front will push across the forecast are late Tuesday into Tuesday
night keeping shower and thunderstorm chances around. Went lower
than the NBM for PoPs through the period as the NBM has been
consistently running too high the last few days. Capped PoPs to
chance through the period with high-res guidance and global model
guidance trending drier for early next week. Lows each night will be
a few to several degrees above normal. Highs on Monday will end up a
few degrees above normal, ending up near normal on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Trending Drier Wednesday into Thursday

2) Unsettled Weather Returns Friday into Saturday

3) Above Normal Temps Expected

The aforementioned cold front in the short term should be east of
the forecast area early Wednesday morning but will stall across the
central Carolinas through the remainder of the period. Drier
conditions will develop behind the front on Wednesday and may even
linger into Thursday. Shower and thunderstorm chances should return
again Friday into Saturday as the stalled frontal boundary nudges
westward. Highs each day will end up a few degrees above normal,
with lows each night remaining a few to several degrees above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: For the remainder of the afternoon...VFR at
all terminals with a SW to W wind and occasional gusts. Convective
clouds with bases generally 035 to 060. Won`t rule out a stray
shower. Our main concern is the model depiction of a squall line
moving west to east across the fcst area this evening. Upstream
radars show the line organizing as it moves into middle TN and
nrn AL at this time, with a corridor of instability extending
eastward into the Carolinas for this feature to exploit into the
evening. Confidence continues to increase that it will affect at
least the western terminals at some point during the middle part
of the evening, so TEMPOs were used at those spots. Still sketchy
as to survival as far east as KCLT, so a PROB30 was kept there. A
new development in the guidance is for a second round of elevated
showers and storms thru the early morning hours. We approach that
development cautiously with a PROB30 in the I-85 corridor. If that
fails to happen, then some low cloud/vis restrictions become a
better possibility. Wind should remain SW. The activity should
weaken and move east by daybreak. For Sunday, another round of
scattered thunderstorms will be possible from midday onward. Wind
should be SW and gusty once again.

Outlook: An active period is expected with scattered diurnal
showers and thunderstorms each day along with the potential for
late night/early morning fog/low stratus restrictions.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...PM/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...PM