Jacksonville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

633
FXUS62 KMHX 111325
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
925 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system moves through the area today. High
pressure then builds in again late this weekend into next week
before another cold front pushes through the region mid- week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Message:

- There is a low end/MARGINAL Severe Weather Threat (Level 1 of
      5) today across eastern NC

As of 925 AM Friday...A well-defined mid-level shortwave, is
forecast to pivot southeast around the mid level trough as it
moves into eastern NC today. At the surface, a broad but
deepening low will track northeast across eastern NC this
afternoon, As this occurs, multiple waves of precip will move
across our area today.

This afternoon a region of decent 700-500 MB lapse rates around
7.5 C/km will occur over the area and coincide the exit region
of the upper jet to produce sufficient synoptic scale lift to
support scattered to widespread convection. Surface dewpoints in
the 50s combined with limited heating will produce MU Capes of
500-800 J/kg in a region that will have sufficient shear to
allow for storm organization and a low end severe weather threat
with the main concerns damaging wind gusts and hail mainly from
16-21Z and especially east of Highway 17. Also can`t rule out an
isolated tornado as some backing of sfc winds is expected along
and ahead of the surface low track creating enough directional
shear to support a brief spin-up. Current forecast highs range
from the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
As of 430 AM Friday...Sfc low departs, and wrap around low level
moisture brings cloud cover into ENC as winds shift to become NE.
This will help moderate temps a tad, with lows in the upper 40s
to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 255 AM Friday...

Upper low will linger over the region on Saturday, contributing to
another day of dreary and damp weather. Ridging then builds back in
to kick off the new week with temperatures rebounding. A fast moving
and strong cold front push across the eastern CONUS Tuesday,
although whether it brings any precipitation remains a question.
Cooler high pressure builds back in behind the boundary as upper
troughing once again settles in over the eastern CONUS.

Saturday...Upper low will move overhead tomorrow, and despite the
surface low moving offshore lapse rates will remain steep thanks to
unusually cold air aloft. Steep lapse rates and lingering (albeit
shallow) pool of moisture in the afternoon favor an environment for
at least some isolated showers, and with lower-than-average freezing
levels cannot rule out some periods of small hail. Limited expected
coverage keeps PoPs at slight chance for now. With mainly overcast
conditions forecast, kept the forecast temperature curve flatter
than normal and knocked highs down a few degrees, favoring temps
only in the mid to upper 50s.

Sunday through Thursday...The upper low will be offshore by Sunday
with upper ridging and sfc high pressure building in from the
southwest, keeping conditions dry but steadily warmer through
Tuesday. Mix of deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to
point to a frontal passage across the Carolinas around Tuesday.
Trends over the past couple of runs have shifted the forecast
towards a stronger frontal boundary and a modest increase in rain
chances, although the 50% percentile of forecast QPF among all
ensemble members remains 0.00". Did add a slight chance PoP out of
respect to a persistent minority of wetter guidance.

High pressure builds in back behind the front ushering in another
shot of slightly below-average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06Z Saturday/...
As of 740 AM Friday...VFR/MVFR conditions are present early
this morning. Broken to widespread band of showers and isolated
thunderstorms will move through this morning, and conditions
should remain predominately VFR, though some brief drops to MVFR
conditions are possible in showers and thunderstorms. Highest
chance of showers is for PGV through the morning. The lowest
ceilings are likely to be over the coastal plain this morning,
where cloud bases could get as low as 2000 ft.

The forecast becomes a bit more uncertain for this afternoon
and evening. There could be a lull in the early afternoon,
before additional isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms develop in the late afternoon and evening. With
rain chances going down for the afternoon and evening hours,
have a longer duration of VFR in the TAFs. Tonight wrap around
low level moisture from low lifting northeast will bring low
ceilings back across the CWA. Potential for sub-VFR cloud bases
is high, with worst case scenario being ceilings of around
500ft.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 300 AM Friday...

An upper low will linger over the eastern CONUS on Saturday with low
overcast conditions and isolated showers forecast to plague area
terminals. Cigs will likely be MVFR for much of the day with periods
of IFR possible. Some isolated showers could produce small hail.
Ridging and high pressure returns on Sunday, ushering in
predominantly VFR conditions for the remainder of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 925 AM Friday...Winds shifting through the day as low
pressure moves overhead and eventually offshore to the
northeast. Southwesterly winds increase to 15-20 kts (gusts to
20-25 kt) by this afternoon, and seas build to 3-5 ft. Some 6
footers possible near Diamond Shoals. Current expectation is for
conditions to remain below SCA levels through tonight with this
period of stronger southwesterly flow, but will have to monitor
fcst trends should winds become stronger. Strong storms
possible for waters later this morning and again this afternoon.
Tonight winds become W then NW as low moves off, but should
remain below SCA criteria. As winds decrease, waves drop back
down to 2-4 ft by Sat morning.


LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 300 AM Friday...

Marine conditions start benignly on Saturday but are forecast to
deteriorate through the day with a northwesterly surge of wind
beginning in the evening and carrying through Sunday. Forecast winds
were increased again this morning, and now show explicit SCA
conditions for all offshore waters and most of the inland sounds.
Confidence is lower for inland rivers.

Marine conditions improve Sun PM into Monday as high pressure builds
back over the waters, but winds will increase again out of the
southwest late Mon into Tuesday with another approaching front.
Guidance has trended stronger with the front and now show SCA
conditions over offshore waters and the Pamlico Sound ahead of this
boundary. Ensemble guidance points to a 10-20% chance of Gales ahead
of the front, confined over outer offshore waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME/RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...MS/RJ
MARINE...JME/MS/RJ