Jacksonville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

707
FXUS62 KMHX 040804
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
304 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold, dry high pressure will remain in control through
today, with near record lows possible this morning. A dry
strong front will move through Thursday bringing strong winds,
particularly for coastal communities. Arctic high pressure
builds back over the area Friday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 140 AM Wednesday...
Key Messages:

-Cold start to the day with early morning temps in the teens to
 low 20s across much of mainland ENC

High pressure builds over the Carolinas keeping skies clear and
winds light and variable to calm. Great radiational cooling
conditions right now throughout mainland ENC with the temps in
the low to mid 20s throughout much of mainland ENC. Beaches have
a light wind preventing decoupling, so along beaches temps are
currently in the 30s. Expect temps to continue gradually
dropping through the night, reaching the teens by daybreak along
the coastal plain. Fortunately with light to calm winds in the
way of a truly impactful wind chill, there is no need for a cold
weather advisory. It will still be a very chilly (and
potentially record breaking) early morning for mainland ENC
regardless so ensure you are taking proper cold weather
precautions.

High pressure gradually pushes offshore through the day
Wednesday as our next impactful cold front begins to approach
from the west. With high pressure overhead skies will remain
generally clear through the day, with some scattered to broken high
cirrus possible in the afternoon and evening. Light and
variable winds in the morning will become SW`rly as high
pressure pushes offshore. This will allow for some weak WAA to
set up across the area on Wed allowing for slightly warmer
temps. Current forecast has high temps across ENC reaching the
upper 40s to low 50s which will feel much warmer as compared to
Tuesday`s highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Wednesday...
Key Messages:

-Wind Advisory in effect for Hatteras Island, Ocracoke, and East
 Carteret beaches with strong SW flow Wednesday night into
 Thursday
-Minor coastal flooding concerns, see COASTAL FLOODING section
 for more information

Winds pick up tonight ahead of a cold front as high pressure
shifts further south and east, while a strong low treks across
the Great Lakes region and New England. The tightened pressure
gradient will result in substantial gusts tonight, as high as
40-50 mph for beaches, and 20-30 mph inland. If a marine
inversion infiltrates into the OBX overnight, gusts may only
reach the lower end of this range. However with the duration of
strong sustained winds and potential for the higher end gusts, A
wind advisory is in effect for Hatteras Island, Ocracoke, and
Eastern Carteret County. Gusty winds will blow around unsecured
objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages
may result. See COASTAL FLOODING section for information on
coastal flooding hazards.

Dry conditions through the night and low temps in the mid 30s
inland, mid to upper 40s for beaches.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Update: As of 3 PM Tue: Inc winds a bit for Wed night into Thu.
Low level wind field a bit stronger on latest 03/12Z guidance,
with 850mb winds of up to 60 kt, and 975mb to 45 kt. Think we
should still stay below wind adv for OBX due to some marine
inversion present, but will see gusty winds nonetheless to 45
mph for coastal locales esp Thu morning. Adjusted lows down a
bit for both Fri night and Sat night where models struggle on
the tail end of cold waves and strong inversions. Lows in the
mid/upr teens Fri night could approach or exceed records (see
record section) and in the mid 20s Sat night as moderated high
will still be overhead with very dry airmass in place.

As of 3 AM Tue...Long term outlook for eastern NC continues to
favor below average temperatures and primarily dry conditions.
A strong cold front will cross the region Thursday. Strong high
pressure and another round of cold temperatures will build in
late week into the weekend. Temps will warm early next week,
with better chances for precip.

A stronger shortwave is forecast to dive out of central Canada,
resulting in cyclogenesis over the Great Lakes and New England
which will drag another strong cold front across the eastern
CONUS...and through eastern NC Thursday. After a cold start Wed,
temps will warm into the upper 40s to low 50s. Ahead of the
boundary, breezy conditions are likely as 35-45 kt 850 mb winds
are mixed towards the surface Wed night into Thu. SW-WSW winds
may gust 40-45 mph along the Outer Banks. This could result in
minor soundside water level rises for the Outer Banks. Much more
mild temps are expected with highs climbing to 55-60 degrees Thu,
though this respite will not last long.

Strong high pressure will build back over the area Friday into
the weekend, resulting in dry weather and below normal temps.
Highs in the 40s Fri and Sat, warming into the 50s Sun and
around 60 on Mon. Sat morning looks to be the coldest with temps
likely falling into the teens inland and low 30s for the Outer
Banks. Another cold front is forecast to approach the area
early next week, though still some uncertainty and timing
differences in the guidance. Will cap pops at low chance for
now. Temps expected to warm to near or slightly above normal Mon
and Tue.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday evening/...
As of 230 AM Wednesday...
Key Messages:

-Quiet start to the period, but gusty winds Wednesday night lead
 to low level wind shear concerns

VFR flight cats through period with SKC. Light to calm winds
this morning but much too dry for any fog. Winds become SWerly
5-10kt Wed afternoon, increasing to 10-15G20kt inland as
pressure gradient tightens. Strong low level flow brings low
level wind shear concerns, particularly for coastal plain
terminals. Beaches will be even windier, getting as high as
15-25G30-35kts while remaining from the SW by 6Z Thursday.


LONG TERM /Wednesday afternoon through Sunday/...
As of 3 AM Tue...Prolonged period of VFR conditions expected
through the period, as cold and dry high pressure remains in
control. Airmass will likely be too dry to support fog, although
some reduced visibilities due to steam fog are possible for
terminals near water. Another strong cold front crosses the
terminals Thursday with the potential for wind gusts 20-25 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday night/...
As of 245 AM Wednesday...
Key Messages:

-Small Craft Advisory for waters off Hatteras Island has dropped
 with seas and winds falling below 6ft/25kt

-Gale Warnings continue for all waters but inland rivers for
 the Wednesday night into Thursday system.

-Small craft advisories have been issued for inland rivers, and
 Gale warnings continue for the Wednesday night into Thursday
 system

Strong winds and dangerous seas expected to develop Wednesday
night and Thursday. High pressure is starting to shift offshore
of SC and as a result winds currently from the NW at 10-15G20kts
will back to become SW in the afternoon and strengthen through
the PM hours. Cold front approaches from the west, and tightened
pressure gradient will result in SW winds 20-35G30-45 kts as
the aforementioned front gets closer to ENC early Thursday
morning. Seas currently 3-5 ft become 2-4 ft this afternoon
before starting to increase in response to the strengthening SW
winds. Daybreak Thursday seas will be 6-11 ft for coastal
waters, highest offshore from Cape Lookout to Cape Hatteras.


LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
Update: Have issued gale warnings in place of the watch, and
included Albemarle/Croatan/Roanoke sounds.

As of 3 AM Tue...Strong winds and dangerous seas expected to
develop Wednesday night and Thursday. Gale Watches have been
issued for the coastal waters and the Pamlico Sound Wednesday
night into Thursday evening, with the potential for 35-40 kt
gusts. SCAs will likely eventually be needed for the remaining
waters. NW winds 5-15 kt to start off Wed, with winds grad
backing becoming SW, then increasing to 15-20 kt by early
evening. SW-WSW winds will peak at 20-30 kt across the inland
rivers and northern sounds and 25-35 kt across the coastal
waters and Pamlico Sound...with seas building to 6-12 ft
(highest near the Gulf Stream). Slowly improving conditions
Thursday night. Strong high pressure will build over the waters
Fri into the weekend. Breezy NNW winds 15-25 kt Fri with seas
grad subsiding to 3-6 ft. Better conditions expected across the
waters Sat, NW-W winds 10-15 kt and seas 2-4 ft.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...A strong dry cold front will move
through Thursday. Westerly winds will gust 30 to 40 mph during
the day. These wind gusts combined with low relative humidities
in the low/mid 30s percentile may lead to elevated fire weather
conditions.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 3 PM Tue...Strong SW-W-NW winds will develop late
Wednesday night and into Thursday ahead of a dry cold front.
This may result in minor water level rises (1-2 ft agl) for
soundside Outer Banks. At this time the greatest threat looks to
be for areas from Duck to Buxton (including Roanoke Island)
early Thu morning through late afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Low temperatures for 12/04 (Wednesday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern       22/1966  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras  27/1979  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville     18/1966  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City  23/1989  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston        19/1966  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville   22/1989  (NCA ASOS)

Record Low temperatures for 12/07 (Saturday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern       20/1954  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras  30/2010  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville     19/1984  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City  21/1997  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston        21/1983  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville   19/2010  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 2 AM to noon EST Thursday for AMZ135-150-230-
     231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
     AMZ152-154.
     Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 6 PM EST Thursday for
     AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...CQD/TL
AVIATION...CQD/RJ
MARINE...CQD/RJ
FIRE WEATHER...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
CLIMATE...MHX