Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

469
FXUS62 KMHX 071338
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
938 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Multiple rounds of strong to severe storms are possible through
the weekend as well as dangerous afternoon heat indices
nearing triple digits. The unsettled pattern will continue
through midweek, keeping rain and strong to severe thunderstorms
in the forecast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 940 AM Sat...

Key Messages:

- Strong to severe storms are possible later this afternoon and
evening

- Main severe hazard of concern will be damaging wind gusts

- Dangerous heat indices near 100 degrees across the coastal plain

No significant changes needed to the previous forecast for
morning update. Quiet conditions will persist through this
morning and the first part of the afternoon. Later today, a mid-
level shortwave and surface trough/cold front will cross the
areas and serve as the forcing mechanisms for strong to
potentially severe convection.

Southwesterly flow will usher in warm, moist air to generate
MLCAPE values of ~2000-3000 J/kg while deep layer shear will
increase to 30-35 kt. Model soundings show inverted-V
signatures and DCAPE values well exceeding 1000 J/kg, both of
which support the concern for damaging wind gusts (60+ mph).
Large hail and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out either,
but the main concern continues to be damaging wind. In addition,
PWATs will increase to ~2", resulting in potentially locally
heavy rainfall under stronger storms.

The earliest activity would be along the seabreeze, but the main
show will occur later in the afternoon and into the evening,
moving in from the north and west across the coastal plain and
working towards the coast. CAMs are painting a messy picture,
with potential for a mix of discrete cells and linear clusters,
some of which may merge and form larger bowing segments later
in the evening. The window for severe activity will generally be
3-10 PM west of Highway 17 and 5 PM Saturday - 12 AM Sunday
east of Highway 17.

SPC has the entire CWA outlined in a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for
severe weather with the main concern being damaging wind gusts.
It should also be mentioned that if this morning`s clouds
linger longer than expected, this could hinder our
destabilization and overall severe risk.

In addition to the severe thunderstorm risk, there`s concern for
dangerous heat indices across the coastal plain this afternoon.
With high temperatures in the low-90s and dew points in the low-
to mid- 70s, "feels like" temperatures will reach nearly 100
degrees. If participating in outdoor work or recreation, take
frequent breaks and drink plenty of water.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Saturday...Remaining convective activity should be
pushing off the coast shortly after midnight, ending the severe
threat over land and pivoting full attention to the coastal
waters where strong storms with gusty winds will remain possible
into the early morning hours of Sunday. Lows will be similar to
Friday night with temps bottoming out in the low-70s CWA-wide.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 4 AM Saturday...

Key Messages:

 - Strong to severe storms will be possible Sunday afternoon and
   evening.

 - Unsettled weather will continue through much of the rest of
   the long term.

A mid level shortwave approaches the area with a sfc low
reflection tracking to the north Sunday bringing a threat of
showers and thunderstorms. Could see some strong to potentially
severe storms late Sunday and Sunday evening with moderate
instability (SBCAPE values peak around 2000-2500+ J/Kg) and 0-6k
bulk shear around 30-35 kt. With PW values around 1.75-2",
thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rainfall as well. SPC
has the region in a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms
Sunday with damaging wind gusts the primary threat. Continued
warm on Sunday with temps a couple of degrees cooler than
Saturday, mainly in the upper 80s to around 90 inland and mid
80s coast.

An upper low digs into the Great Lakes early next week with
cyclonic flow developing across the region and a series of
shortwave troughs advecting through the flow aloft keeping
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through mid week. The
airmass remains moderately unstable with modest shear most days
and could see a few strong storms, especially during peak
heating. Persistent SW flow aloft will bring a descent tropical
moisture feed into the region with PW values around 1.75-2",
which is above the 90th percentile for this time of year,
keeping a threat for locally heavy rainfall each day. Temps
look to be near to a few degrees above normal early to middle of
next week.

The upper low lifts out late Wednesday with short wave ridging
briefly building in late in the week bringing broad subsidence
aloft and a relative minimum in precip chances. Still sufficient
moisture and instability for widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms during peak heating, especially along the
sea/sound breeze boundaries.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 705 AM Saturday...VFR flight cats with light
southwesterly winds will persist through this morning,
increasing to 10-15 kt by this afternoon. The environment will
be conducive to support strong to severe thunderstorms starting
mid-afternoon and continuing into the evening. PROB30 groups
remain for all TAF sites to highlight the timeframe of the
greatest threat for gusty winds and hail. Conditions will
improve from west to east tonight with convection likely east of
all TAF sites shortly after midnight. High clouds will persist
overnight but begin to lower again at the end of the period.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 415 AM Saturday...An unsettled pattern will prevail
through much of the long term keeping periods of showers and
thunderstorms bringing periods of sub-VFR conditions across the
region. There will also be the threat for late night/early
morning fog each day as well.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 940 AM Sat...Latest obs show WSW winds 10-15 kt and seas
2-4 ft. SW winds will increase to 15-20 kt tonight with seas
building to 3-5 ft south of Oregon Inlet. Conditions will be
borderline SCA, mainly south of Cape Hatteras, with occasional
gusts to 25 kt for a few hours tonight. Later this evening (~8
PM Sat - 1 AM Sun), thunderstorms will impact the waters with
gusty winds and heavy rainfall being the main concerns.
Conditions will improve after this convective activity moves out
of the FA with southwest winds dropping back to 10-15 kt.

LONG TERM /Sunday though Wednesday/...
As of 430 AM Saturday...SW winds around 10-20 kt expected to
prevail through Monday with strongest winds during afternoon and
evening hours when the diurnal thermal gradient is the tightest
and could see a few gusts to around 25 kt. Another cold front
approached from the NW on Tuesday serving to tighten the
gradient a bit more and could see low end SCA conditions
develop, especially across the coastal waters south of Oregon
Inlet with gusts to around 25 kt. Seas generally around 3-5 ft
through Sunday and Monday, then up to 6 ft seas across the
southern/central waters on Tuesday. SW winds expected to relax
Wednesday to around 10-15 kt with seas subsiding to 2-4 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/OJC
MARINE...SK/OJC/CQD