Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

703
FXUS62 KRAH 111332
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
930 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move slowly across NC and VA through early
Saturday. Canadian high pressure will then build across and offshore
the Middle and South Atlantic later Saturday through the rest of the
weekend, ahead of a warm front that will move across the region on
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 930 AM Friday...

No major changes to the morning update. The main update to the
forecast was to adjust temperatures down across the northern and
northwest Piedmont, as northerly flow will likely persist in this
region with the passage of the low to its south over the Coastal
Plain later this afternoon. We also did an update to the PoPs. Based
on latest trends, the batch of showers over the Piedmont and
northern Coastal Plain should lift mostly up into southern VA by
midday. Certainly isoalted showers will be around, but thinking the
more widespread activity will briefly come to an end. Then we are
still watching for an isolated to scattered batch of showers and
storms starting from about 1 pm until about 6-7 pm this evening. We
still think the main threat area would be from a line roughly from
Rockingham to Sanford to Smithfield and to Rocky Mount and points
south and east. The latest 12z HRRR, which has a decent handle on
current radar trends, albeit perhaps an hour or so behind, shows
this development over the aforementioned area. This batch will have
the best potential for large hail. No other major changes were made
to the forecast.

Prior discussion as of 445 AM Friday...

* Stratiform rain this morning, followed by efficient hail-producing
  and generally low-topped showers and thunderstorms this afternoon-
  early evening
* Large, severe-sized hail will be favored over the ern half of NC,
  roughly along and east of a line from RCZ to RDU to IXA.

Within a mid/upr-level trough that will progress slowly ewd and
across the Middle and South Atlantic, a cyclone will develop and
deepen across VA and nrn NC, with an associated pocket of minus 24-
25C temperatures at 500 mb, through 12Z Sat. A series of at least
three, distinct vorticity maxima evident in regional radar and water
vapor satellite data now over the NC Sandhills, ern TN/KY, and wrn
TN/KY, respectively, will rotate through the ern periphery of the
developing cyclone and across cntl and ern NC through this evening.

At the surface, a 1013 mb frontal low now over the srn NC Piedmont
will deepen 4-5 mb while tracking generally enewd and through cntl
and nern NC through this afternoon, then across Tidewater VA, the
Chesapeake Bay, and the DelMarVa tonight. Following, ~1026 mb
Canadian high pressure will build sewd and across the MS Valley.

Widespread, multi-layered overcast, and stratiform rain
accompanying a lead, convectively-amplified vort max now centered
over the NC Sandhills, will maintain cool and stable conditions over
cntl NC through mid-morning. A band of convection may develop
immediately ahead of this feature and across ern NC and sern VA by
late morning-early afternoon.

At the same time and more influential to cntl NC, south to north
lifting and scattering of the low overcast will likely occur along
and immediately following the passing frontal low, with associated
warming surface temperatures through the 60s, to near 70 F from MEB
to GSB and points swd. Associated weak destabilization up to 750-
1000 J/kg will result, as that boundary layer warming occurs beneath
the aforementioned pocket of cold and cooling temperatures aloft,
and related steep mid-level lapse rates of ~7 C/km. The presence of
strong, ~40-50 kts of swly mid-level flow maximized over ern NC will
provide ample shear and elongated hodographs that will favor
splitting of generally low-topped cells. Large hail will be the
associated primary severe hazard where that associated shear and
instability parameter space is most likely to be maximized - roughly
along a line from RCZ to RDU to IXA, coast-ward. Already low
freezing levels that were observed at 6200 ft AGL at GSO last
evening will further lower within the aforementioned steep lase rate
environment, as temperatures aloft cool through this evening.
Associated thermal and instability profiles will be favorable for
the production of small (pea) hail, some that may cover the ground,
in even shallower and more weakly-sheared cells throughout cntl NC
through this evening.

While the threat of convection will diminish after sunset, a
deformation band of saturation ~4-6 thousand ft deep, accompanying
the passing low pressure, will probably maintain occasional light
rain over the far ne Piedmont and nrn and cntl Coastal Plain through
Sat morning, with low temperatures mostly in the mid-upr 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 327 AM Friday...

The upper system will slowly migrate offshore Saturday into Sunday.
Models continue to indicate that enough upper forcing and anomalous
moisture will hang around to promote widely scattered showers at
times through Saturday evening (highest POPs in the east).  Rain
chances will end near sunrise Sunday morning as the system pulls
further offshore.  Given the persistent cloud cover, cooler
conditions are expected Saturday with area-wide mid to upper 50s
expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 237 AM Friday...

Sunday through Monday: Dry nwly flow aloft on Sunday, followed by
zonal mid-level ridging on Monday will promote dry conditions both
days. After a cooler day in the upper 60s Sunday, temperatures will
rebound back into the upper 70s to lower 80s Monday under ridging
aloft.

Tuesday through Thursday: Flow turns more sswly ahead of our next
trough on Tuesday, but models have trended a bit faster with our
next cold front. As such, latest guidance suggest a bit cooler temps
are possible on Tuesday with highs across the northwest in the lower
70s (mid to upper 70s across the southeast). The frontal passage
still appears to be mostly dry, but enough ensemble members
predict some chance for measurable rain Tuesday afternoon to keep a
mention of slight chance pops for those along and east of US-1. It
should not amount to much though.  Post-frontal cool mid to upper
60s temperatures are then expected Wednesday. Beyond Wednesday,
models hint at another short-wave riding through the central US
which could bring rain chances back to our area late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 710 AM Friday...

LIFR-IFR ceilings, mostly MVFR visibility restrictions, and a band
of initially stratiform rain, will accompany a passing area of low
pressure across cntl NC this morning. Precipitation will then become
increasingly-convective with daytime heating this afternoon through
early evening, beneath cold temperatures and forcing for lift aloft.
Ceilings will otherwise gradually lift to MVFR from south to north
in between convection this afternoon, and probably to VFR at FAY and
RWI. Redevelopment and swd expansion of IFR-MVFR ceilings and patchy
light rain, in continued cool and moist nly flow around low pressure
that will track slowly off the srn Middle Atlantic coast, will
result over particularly the ern half of cntl NC tonight-early Sat.

Outlook: MVFR ceilings and some shallow showers are expected to
linger through Sat, especially at RWI and potentially at RDU/FAY. A
return to VFR is expected Sat night. Gusty southwesterly winds 20 to
30 kts and low-level turbulence will be possible on Mon ahead of dry
cold frontal passage on Tues.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Kren/MWS
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...Luchetti
AVIATION...MWS/Swiggett