Cornelius, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

815
FXUS62 KGSP 251349
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
949 AM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will remain across our area through Saturday
providing a focus for daily scattered to numerous afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms. Dry high pressure moves in for
Sunday and Monday. A cold front drops into or near the area through
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 945 AM Friday: A cluster of showers continues to lift across
the North Carolina foothills and Piedmont as of this writing. This
activity will push out of the area within the next several hours
while a moist and weakly forced environment remains in place through
the rest of the day. A general lull in showers is expected, however,
with only a couple isolated to widely scattered showers through the
afternoon. Rain chances ramp back up this evening as an upper trough
approaches from the west. The main focus with this forecast update
was to adjust PoPs accordingly with lower values through the rest of
the day.

Otherwise, still expect a cluster of DPVA to traverse across the
CFWA from west to east this evening. As a result, the coverage in
convection is expected to become more widespread this evening
compared to the previous few days. CAMs currently keep an embedded
line of convection following the cluster of DPVA and sends this line
into mountains by the late afternoon and east of the mountains by
the evening hours. There are also indications of scattered
convection developing ahead of this line. The environment will only
induce modest instability (500-1000 J/kg) and weak shear, which
should keep any severe threat at bay, but an isolated strong to
severe storms can`t be totally ruled out. Weak MBE velocity vectors
and high PWAT values will elevate a local flash flood threat, mainly
in areas that have received multiple rounds of heavy rainfall over
the previous few days. Heavy rainfall is a welcome site to most
locations however as the rainfall will be considered beneficial.
With the slow progression of the area of DPVA today and tonight,
longer duration showers and thunderstorms are expected and should
keep coverage going into the early overnight hours, especially in
locations where the environment is left untapped. Afternoon highs
should rise a category or so warmer compared to Thursday as slightly
drier profiles aloft and somewhat deeper boundary layer mixing will
help scatter out morning low stratus and other layers of clouds
enough to allow more insolation to reach the surface. In this case,
max temperatures for today will be near-normal for late April.
Lingering cloud debris and rainfall within the moist airmass will
keep overnight lows tonight 10-15 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Friday: A cold front crosses the area Saturday. Good
forcing and copious moisture will lead to numerous showers across
the mountains and scattered showers elsewhere as guidance has
trended back wetter. With the wetter forecast, instability is not as
high, but high enough for isolated to possibly scattered storms.
Severe chances and excessive rainfall look minimal. Drier air
quickly moves in Saturday night and remains in place Sunday as high
pressure slides into the area. Highs Saturday will be 5 to 10
degrees above normal. The drier air mass is also cooler with highs
dropping to around normal Sunday. Lows Saturday night around 5
degrees above normal remains nearly steady across the west on Sunday
night and falls a few degrees over the east.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 255 AM Friday: High pressure moves off shore Monday with a
cold front approaching from the northwest on Tuesday. A moist
southerly flow slowly increases each day with isolated diurnal
convection possible across the mountains both days. The cold front
drops south near the area Wednesday then stalls just north of the
area as low pressure develops along the front to our west and moves
into the Ohio Valley. Expect moisture and instability to increase
across the area both days with scattered, mainly diurnal convection.
Temps ramp back up through the period with temps around 10 degrees
above by Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Mess of a forecast with a moist airmass in
place, leading to an abundance of low-level cloud cover hovering at
different ceilings levels. BKN/OVC MVFR/IFR cigs are expected at
all sites and the latest trend has all sites going strictly IFR,
possibly LIFR around daybreak. Showers have scattered about the area
and current radar observations suggest that the best chance for SHRA
over the next few hours will be at KAVL/KHKY/KGSP/KGMU, so placed a
TEMPO to capture this. Variable low stratus cigs and fog
restrictions will give headaches to overall forecasts, especially
with showers developing as well. Winds will be southerly to variable
through daybreak. Low-level clouds will remain in place throughout
the day Friday with SCT/BKN coverage. Expect cigs to lift to MVFR
after daybreak and through the mid to late morning hours and are
expected to return to low-end VFR by the afternoon and evening,
outside of passing showers and thunderstorms. Best chance for
showers and thunderstorms are expected to by after 18Z Friday and
placed a PROB30 to time the most likely time for thunder at each TAF
site. Winds should veer slightly to a south to southwesterly
component during the daytime period, but not forecasting gusts
outside of nearby thunderstorms. Model guidance hint at another
round of low stratus and vsby restrictions overnight tonight.

Outlook: Mainly diurnal showers/thunder and associated restrictions
will continue Saturday. Fog and/or low stratus may develop overnight
into sunrise each morning, especially where heavier downpours
occurred the previous afternoon/evening. Dry high pressure expected
Sunday and Monday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CAC/TW
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CAC