Charlotte, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

182
FXUS62 KGSP 140604
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
204 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move slowly northeast across the Ohio River
Valley through midweek. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will
continue across our region through Wednesday. Drier high pressure
moves over our area Thursday, followed by a cold front bringing
another round of showers and storms across our region Friday and
Saturday. Above normal temperatures will continue through the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 148 AM EDT Wednesday: Starting to look like we are going to
be dealing with clusters of showers moving on a E-NE arc across the
fcst area for the better part of the pre-dawn hours. Fortunately,
we`ve used up most of the available buoyancy, so thunderstorms
are low prob/few and far between. Temps will remain mild and
the boundary layer will retain a great deal of moisture, so low
clouds/fog could be a problem just about everywhere thru daybreak.

Otherwise, a vertically stacked low will continue its slow trek
northeastward thru the period. As it does, it will open up as it
lifts across the central Appalachians. This will allow heights to
rise across the Southeast as upper ridging builds from the SW. At
the sfc, we will remain under a broad area of moist, SLY to SWLY
low-lvl flow with broad high pressure to our east over the Atlantic
and low pressure well to our west centered over the central Plains.
We can expect more rounds of showers and thunderstorms on Wed as
the region remains under moist, SLY low-level flow, despite losing
much of the upper support as the upper trof lifts north of the area.
Modest instability along with 20 to 30 kts of deep-lyr shear should
allow for loosely organized clusters of thunderstorms with isolated
strong to maybe a few severe storms possible. The main hazards still
appear to be locally damaging straight-line winds and small hail.
Otherwise, temperatures will continue to warm on Wed with highs
back near climatology across our CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM Tue: Upper ridge will build over the SE CONUS reaching
peak depth in our area early Friday. WAA will continue aloft over the
CWA Wednesday night with surface warm front appearing to arrive
during the day Thursday.  Where the atmosphere has not been turned
over by convection Wed afternoon, some MUCAPE will linger over the
area overnight, and CAMs depict some convection developing at the
leading edge of the WAA, but as the advection continues a capping
inversion should develop. NAEFS output suggests 700mb temps will rise
to 2 to 3 SD above climo, and GFS/NAM values are near the daily
records. Prog soundings take on the look of an elevated mixed layer
by Thursday, suggesting diurnal convection will be greatly limited if
not completely suppressed; HRW-FV3 and NAMNest favor the latter, but
some synoptic models still manage some ridgetop convection. Rising
thicknesses will bring max temps 5-8 degrees above normal. Lower OH
or TN Valley convection probably will be suppressed by capping
Thursday afternoon, so likelihood of activity moving into the
mountains appears small overnight, although a shallow moist layer
along the mountain spine prompted inclusion of low slight-chance PoPs
there.

Friday the ridge axis probably will be over or just east of the CWA.
Soundings still mostly feature the elevated mixed layer serving as a
strong cap, but within that layer lapse rates will be quite
remarkable, near dry-adiabatic. The NAM depicts this over several km
and thus produces SBCAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg during the
afternoon, but with 100+ J/kg CIN. Combined with 40 kt of 0-6km
shear, if we were to see a storm develop, it would be capable of
severe hail and wind of the kind we rarely see in this part of the
CONUS. However, model QPF response over the CWA is weak to
nonexistent during the day owing to the cap so PoPs remain small over
the mountains and below slight-chance in our southeast. Still higher
thicknesses and the loaded-gun type soundings suggest hot and humid
conditions with temps in the upper 80s over the Piedmont. NWS Heat
Risk ranking of Elevated for these areas with a few spots in the
southeast border area reaching the High category.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Tue: Ridge axis remains near the SE coast Friday night
and Saturday as broad shortwave moves through the OH Valley.
Associated cold front still appears likely to lead to MCS development
in that area late Friday, which could make a run at our CWA Friday
night, although the capped environment east of the mountains suggests
an MCS would struggle to cross the terrain. Cooling aloft however
weakens or eliminates the EML over the area and, assuming we aren`t
overrun by a cold pool, would indicate robust CAPE could develop
diurnally Saturday, and a return to above-climo precip chances with
DPVA potentially providing forcing. 40+ kt of 0-6km shear may
translate to organized storms and severe threat. Cold front will
reach the CWA Saturday night bringing slightly cooler temps Sunday
but still above normal. Front lays out in a zonal orientation by
that time; ridge builds in the lower MS Valley and thus there would
remain potential for additional MCS development to our west Sunday
or even Monday. There remain differences among the global models as
to the position of the front; development of diurnal showers/storms
would remain possible on its south side. For now only near-climo
PoPs are advertised due to low confidence in the frontal position.
Temps will remain similarly above normal Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Scattered showers will move in a broad
cyclonic arc across the western Carolinas and northeast GA
through daybreak as an upper wave rotates around the upper
low to our northwest. Think thunder chances are low, so this
will be handled with TEMPOs for showers and associated MVFR
restrictions. In the wake of shower activity, guidance suggests
the development of an MVFR cloud deck that will persist thru
the morning, reinforced by new convection that develops with
minimal daytime heating. Thereafter, it`s a matter of when the
next round of thunderstorms develops. Some of the guidance has
this happening in the afternoon, other models wait until late
afternoon/evening. Either way, there should be a long break
between the early morning activity and the later day activity,
during which the low cloud ceiling should scatter out. Eventually,
after the evening activity dies off or moves northeast, VFR will
return. Wind should stay S to SW thru the period.

Outlook: In general, a summertime pattern is expected through
the end of the week with diurnally driven convective storms each
day. In addition, fog and low stratus will be possible each morning,
primarily in the mtn valleys and in areas that receive appreciable
rainfall the previous day.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JPT/PM
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...Wimberley
AVIATION...PM